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Forums - Sales Discussion - When's the Xbox One gonna overtake the PS4 in the US?

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When will the Xbone overtake the PS4 in the U.S.?

Late 2014 32 2.87%
 
1st half of 2015 51 4.57%
 
2nd half of 2015 92 8.25%
 
1st half of 2016 22 1.97%
 
2nd half of 2016 12 1.08%
 
2017 6 0.54%
 
2018 and beyond 10 0.90%
 
Never 794 71.21%
 
See results 95 8.52%
 
Total:1,114
Qwark on 10 December 2014

To all those who are saying second Half of 2015, may I remind you Naughty Dog releases Uncharted 4 before holiday season and probably right before BF, so why would Xone outsell PS4. Q1 2015 will be an unslaught for PS4 so if will've enough buffer for the Halo momentum



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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Areym on 10 December 2014

I can see it being overtaken around the second half of 2015.



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

Intrinsic on 10 December 2014
Dark_Feanor said:

We don´t know if it was 200K, but it could have been, the same way November could be a 200K lead for the XOne.

There is no "tidal force" anywhere, keep the hyperboles at there place. If anything other than the price advantage that influenced the early PS4 lead was the hardcore gamers delusion that Microsoft was a evil company trying to block the ownership of their games with a terrible, buggy and slugsh hardware, with no apeal to quality that Sony has...

Well, preaty much of this is gone now.

So just so I get this straight... what you are basically saying is (only talking about NA here)

  • The PS4 being cheaper than the XB1 is the primary reason it was outselling it for the first 10 months of this year?
  • That A cheaper XB1 will always outsell the PS4 in NA and thus ultimately close the gap and win NA for MS.
  • Hardcore gamers (some or at last those that bought the PS4) were delusional or at least had to be to think that MS was some sort of evil company cause they didn't like the policies MS was pushing?
  • That its wishful thinking to think that sony will drop the priceof the PS4 in 2015 cause they are selling so well and will rather just stay at the same price?
Well, two things I want to know though; do you work for MS? and Are you actually serious?


Ssenkahdavic on 10 December 2014

If ever, next Holiday season.



 

  

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small44 on 10 December 2014

If they don't outsell it in Christmas it will never outsell it



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

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ohmylanta1003 on 10 December 2014
Intrinsic said:

Wow this thread... what I find even more shocking are the amount of people that think this is possible.

Here are a few things I would like to chime in. Whats the reason for this XB1 sales uptick? Is it generally considered the better console or is it the better deal this holiday season? Will the price drop be permanent?What happens from January onwards? I will not comment on answers to those questions and will take a wait and see approach.

But I wonder, what happens when next year around the time of Uncharted 4 the PS4 is priced at $299? Its shocking how just a month or two can suddenly make some think thats all that's required for an XB1 win. At this rate, to fight a PS4 at $299, MS would need to sell an XB1 at $220 with a free game. Thing about price wars, is that theer is a point where they don't matter anymore.   I also think a lot here haven't actually looked at the kinda year the PS4 is primed to have in 2015. If they did threads like these wouldn't exist. I also find it strange that some here don't realize that its more important for th XB1 to win on the slow months of the year (first 8-10 months) than to win in just the last 2 months of the year. Basically what MS is doing is treating an infection rather than treat the wound causing the infection.

But to answer the question, I will say Never. Come next year, the gap will start to grow again, though the XB1 will no doubt slow the rate at which that gap grows in NA while it becomes uncontrollably worse everywhere else. 


Anything's possible bro. No need in assuming that everyone that thinks it could eventually pass is dumb. I think it's honestly pretty ignorant to write it off as a possibility.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

small44 on 10 December 2014
iTzCharlie said:
When Halo 5 comes out


It just 1 games



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

ohmylanta1003 on 10 December 2014
small44 said:
iTzCharlie said:
When Halo 5 comes out


It just 1 games


Great response.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

Giggs_11 on 10 December 2014
steverhcp02 said:
Giggs_11 said:
steverhcp02 said:
So much wrong with this thread and the OP assumptions. Think about this. Sony has not touched the PS4's price. In fact I believe they actually raised it at one point in Canada but I can't recall if it was a single store chain or not. So you have MSFT, in 12 months coming out with a separate SKU at $100 less entry, then cutting another $50 in a "temporary" price cut and bundling 1-2 free games on top of this. Keep in mind Sony has not yet even touched the price.

Price cuts are pendulums. The assumptions that A) Price gap will forever remain B) MSFT will be willing to bundle free games forever at $350 and C) When the PS4 has its first price drop it wont dwarf the ground MSFT gained with the aforementioned pricing strategy (hint, it will) is asinine.

It is always fascinating to me how narrow people's visions are. It is literally the last week in history, like a snapshot, with no recollection or reference to past events and then extrapolating the narrow vision forward not accounting for anything but the unsustainable best case scenario of said snapshot.

I really don't think people fully understand how significant the price of the console going from $500 to $350 with 1-2 free games, two marquee games, no less, in less than a year is and to only gain a couple hundred thousand units when your competitor did arguably NOTHING. As always, the peaks and valleys of knee jerk reactions triumph on this site. Someone save this post and lets talk in 8 months, but then again I am not sure if most will have the attention span given the recent sales discussion in light of the unprecedented and lopsided strategies of the last month.

I don't fully agree with what you said.

1) Sony never touched PS4's price? Does it cost as much as it did when it came out 1 year ago? And also with no games?

2) X1 didn't go from 500$ to 350$ only from price cuts. 100$ out of those 150$, if I recall correctly, are due to kinnect not being bundled. In my book that ain't a price cut.

3) Also, X1 without Kinnect is a weaker PS4 in terms of hardware, am I right? So, and I'm talking without profund knowledge on the matter, but wouldn't that mean X1 as more room for manoeuvre to lower X1s price? Just raising the question.

Having said that I agree that people are extrapolating1-2 months of sales not considering other 12 months of sales and that makes no sense. I don't see X1 ever overtaking the PS4 in the US or anywhere else. But stranger things have happened...

I never termed the $100 drop a cut but a change in entry point which it was. I agree removing stuff from the box and adjusting price should not on its face be a price cut but a change in entry price which is exactly what I said. Say the "price of the console" drops is accurate and true because at launch someone who wanted a One had to pay $500 whereas now someone can pay $350 if they want one.

Yes ur right, I misread it, u didn't say it was price cut. But you also mention it when a sentence when you're saying Sony didn't tuch PS4 price and I think nonetheless it's not comparable. X1 taking out the kinnect was a business (good) decision. Hell, I would even argue otherwise, it it weren't for that bundle PS4 probably would've sold less consoles because I'm pretty sure X1 + kinnect made MS lose costumers to Sony.
 



black8jac on 10 December 2014
steverhcp02 said:
So much wrong with this thread and the OP assumptions. Think about this. Sony has not touched the PS4's price. In fact I believe they actually raised it at one point in Canada but I can't recall if it was a single store chain or not. So you have MSFT, in 12 months coming out with a separate SKU at $100 less entry, then cutting another $50 in a "temporary" price cut and bundling 1-2 free games on top of this. Keep in mind Sony has not yet even touched the price.

Price cuts are pendulums. The assumptions that A) Price gap will forever remain B) MSFT will be willing to bundle free games forever at $350 and C) When the PS4 has its first price drop it wont dwarf the ground MSFT gained with the aforementioned pricing strategy (hint, it will) is asinine.

It is always fascinating to me how narrow people's visions are. It is literally the last week in history, like a snapshot, with no recollection or reference to past events and then extrapolating the narrow vision forward not accounting for anything but the unsustainable best case scenario of said snapshot.

I really don't think people fully understand how significant the price of the console going from $500 to $350 with 1-2 free games, two marquee games, no less, in less than a year is and to only gain a couple hundred thousand units when your competitor did arguably NOTHING. As always, the peaks and valleys of knee jerk reactions triumph on this site. Someone save this post and lets talk in 8 months, but then again I am not sure if most will have the attention span given the recent sales discussion in light of the unprecedented and lopsided strategies of the last month.


You nailed it in your post. We had two weeks of realy good xbox one sales and some think is a killer now.  There is no doubt that every scenario is possible, however some of them are impropable.