Yes but doable.

it should be nearish 21, while 2015 will depend on price cut Uncharted MGS and possability of GT7 among the other big ass 3rd party and excusives.

When i write the title, i have expect a Drake Tolu post.

...A moment... I AM DRAKE TOLU!

OT: Amazing sales, and i hope PS4>PS2 even lifetime.

Even if we assume 1 million undertracked for the PS4; that leaves 7 million+ to reach 21 million, and with only November and December to go. The Wii did around 7.5 million or there abouts in all of Q4 in its first full CY and that was with around 1.3 million in October and the peak week in December being over 1.4 million. I don't think this is possible, if I'm honest, and the Wii's supply constraints continued well into 2008 as well, leaving massive excess demand for the second full CY and yoy growth in the 50% region or more.

What made the PS2 a juggernaut was the fact that it had a lOCK on third party AAA games. If the PS4 wants to pass it, it's going to have to grab some huge AAA blockbusters that everyone wants. It can't just be a home for games that Xbone gets too if it wants to pass the king (PS2).

The end of October PS4 was probably at 13.5 to 14M, by the of the year it's not unreasonable for it to hit 20M with the way sales have been going.

We've seen what kind of an effect games like Destiny have had on the PS4 numbers throughout this year, even TLOU remastered caused the numbers to sky rocket, next year PS4 has Uncharted, Ratchet & Clank, lots of other exclusives announced, two new IPs in The Order and Bloodborne, there's also the possibility of Gran Turismo coming out by the end of next year. No doubt there will be a price cut. We have big 3rd party multiplats like Arkham Knight, Witcher 3, The Division, MGS 5:PP, SW Battlefront amongst others which will all likely be hugely favored on PS4.

With a decent price cut pretty much inevitable as Sony reduces the costs of the system and with being supported by an even bigger line-up of games.
I wouldn't be surprised if PS4 sells well over 20M between Jan 1st and December 31st next year just off of the back of games mentioned above.

There's also things like Morpheus, a global PS Now subscription service and other potentially unannounced big exclusives that could push numbers up even higher.

Yahh it could drop of by a few million by late next year, benefit it may have is being able to meet demend hopefully and games line up.  

Next year should be fine as far as demend gievn the games and if they hold up quality wise.   BF should drive some great NA sales, Dec will be xmas effect and the rest of the world is in PS4 hands even though their xmas is not us nutty as in NA PS4 will get the lions sahare of whatever the sales are there.  

It will keep on selling great and do well this fall, but i can't help but feel it could have done even better. PS4 simply lacks a big holiday exclusive.

I'm curious. How much do these Analysts get paid?

People are right in being optimistic though; both the PS4 and One have a lot for growth and I strongly believe that the PS4 will pull off one 20 million selling year at least and with possibly two more in the vicinity of that figure. It doesn't need to sell as quickly as the Wii did in the beginning in order to beat it lifetime though; the Wii had an abnormal sales curve and plummeted harder than any other market leader in history has ever done, there is no reason for me or anyone to think that the PS4 won't have a much flatter sales curve and this higher potential lifetime sales. Due to this speed at the start of the Wii's cycle though; it is uncertain whether the PS4 will manage to beat these lifetime figures by a significant amount even if it remains relevant for longer.

2015 is a toss-up as I see it, and I honestly don't know what to expect from the PS4 and One. I underestimated the PS4 for this year, by how much will be decided after new year's but it is safe to say for now that it'll be at least in the 1.5-2 million region (possibly by around 20%) and I will have to take this into consideration when I make my predictions for 2015.

It is also interesting to note the One's recent rise, even if they went all-out to achieve the numbers; the numbers themselves shows that there is in fact room for high-powered consoles of this nature on the market, especially since the One's growth seems not to impact the PS4 negatively by the looks of it.

I remember the Wii being supply constrained for its first 2-3 years on the market. Whether that supply constraint was created by Nintendo or demand was never truly defined. The PS4, on the other hand, is available on many a shelf, without having to ask when the next shipment arrives. I wouldn't be surprised to see it start tracking more in line with the 3rd year PS3 and 360, which is still a pretty decent clip for consoles in the current market.