Tropical Freeze was pushed back as 3D World was pushed up. I'm sure you remember that.

Picking a few times games were delayed doesn't prove anything. What about all of the release dates they've given over the years that didn't budge? X/Y didn't get pushed back from October 2013, Mario Kart didn't get pushed back from spring 2014, Smash hasn't been pushed back (though some forget that it released in Japan before summer ended).

I just think there's no point looking at every situation as a glass-half-full. Else, why listen to projected release windows at all? Why not just assume every Nintendo game slated for release next year will be pushed back to 2016 or beyond?

I take 'em as they come. Nintendo says 2015, I plan for 2015. If they change their mind, I shrug it off. It's not a big deal. It's not worth going through the whole "assume they're lying so I don't wind up disappointed" song and dance over.

And as I said, Zelda Wii U has already been delayed internally. They planned for a 3-year development cycle, they are now saying it will be a 4-year cycle. There's your delay. It would take a huge mismanagement of development time on their part for the game to be delayed by another year.

There are other victims too; Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, Wonderful 101, and Captain Toad (In Europe/Australia) also suffered delays. They are common with Wii U.

Zelda Wii U looks to be possibly the most ambitious game Nintendo has ever made; that increases the likelihood of it suffering a delay, because making a massive, open world game in HD is a daunting task for any dev, let alone one as obsessed with polish as Nintendo.

Given the events of the last two years and the evidence on hand, I estimate about a 20% chance Zelda will launch next year.

I think they will do GCN VC before N64 and tbh I would like that much better. And isn't Captain Toad planned for Holiday 2014? Did I miss something?

Yes, they're common with Wii U, which is why I've pointed out that Zelda has already suffered its obligatory Wii U delay. We can even go back to early 2013 when Wind Waker HD was announced and just listen to Aonuma talking about how at first the team was just messing around with HD trying to figure out a style that worked well for it. There's the cause of your delay. Also, based on Aonuma's recent statements, I don't think we should keep calling this an 'open world' game until we know more about it. It doesn't sound like it will be much more 'open world' than most other Zelda games. The story being linear doesn't make a game a 'closed' world.

We can't really say how ambitious Zelda Wii U is, because we've hardly seen anything of it. It's also difficult to quantify ambition; how do you compare the ambition of Zelda 1 to that of Ocarina of Time? Even though later Zeldas were larger games, would you say they were more ambitious than Ocarina?

All of your evidence is anecdotal, and you ignore the pre-emptive delay that has already taken place.

Will believe it when I see it, this year has been terrible for Wii U despite Nintendo promising there would not be droughts this years

Man, does this look poor and barren  There is no way in hell Nintendo can justify the Wii U price with such releases. There is nothing in the first half of the year (most of this stuff would be considered an indie game on any other platform, had it not had Mario in it). I bloody hope Nintendo manages to do something to make next year look better, especially the first part. Second one would be ok if it all got released. Still, looks so poor in comparison to consoles that get 3rd party support

I'm talking ambition in terms of the amount of time, resources, money and manpower it will take to complete. 

Nintendo these days frequently fails to meet its deadlines, and I suspect this will be one such case because of its aforementioned demanding nature.

Eh i'm just seeing 4 titles that i want and they all come out post-July... First half of the year my Wii U will be collecting dust unfortunately

2015 could be quite good, but Nintendo need to do a better job with Virtual Console and some major digital releases to fill out blank spots. Franchises like F Zero, Punch Out and Wave Race could be revisited digitally if there are too many risks to take with a full retail release. And that doesn't mean they need to skimp; they cut down on the costs of launching those games by eliminating manufacturing and distribution costs.

As it is, I think Zelda, Xenoblade Chronicles X and Star Fox are all candidates for delays. I don't think all three will get delayed, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two slip into 2016. I sincerely hope that's not the case. And if games like Pokken, Fire Emblem v Shin Megami Tensei and Fatal Frame 5 in there, it could be a very, very good year given Wii U's situation.

Wait and see, though. Hopefully there'll be a December Direct to cue is in on the first few months of the year, and maybe to announce another spin-off project like Hyrule Warriors.

I admire your optimism but I just don't see it, 2014 will be it's peak imo. Even if this...

... does happen I only see the bolded having any significant impact and none will have as big an impact as MK8 and SSB. They were the Wiis biggest games outside the casual stuff (Wii Sports/Fit which has died a death) and the other biggie 2D Mario has come and gone.

Wii U has been a disaster for Nintendo. I'd admire them for sticking it out though and giving those customers content. It's a much better decision that Sega's abanonment of the Saturn.