If Nintendo ends the serious shortages it saw during the first half of 2013 and 2014, it can pass the GC, if we only get a really good 2015 and the same doesn`t happen in 2016, then it could end up lower than the GC.

A hardware revision in 2015 with a price cut might give the boost Wii U needs to really grow it`s baseline.

His prediction is a lot more likely than yours, I don't know why are you even telling him something

OT: 18-20 million is my bet

I still think that the WiiU won`t pass the GC. So I agree with the OP.

To much

About what most people expect. Nintendo consoles always peak in their third year (3DS amazingly peaked in its first year in the US).

2012: 2.2m~
2013: 3.2m~
2014: 4m~
2015: 4m~ (less system selling software but price cut)
2015: 2m
2016: 1m
2017 Onwards: 1m~

17m~ total.

We have no signs it will do anything above 25m. Calls of 35m and 40m are silly, it'd need to start doing 8m a year now.

2012: 2.2m~
2013: 3.2m~
2014: 10m
2015: 10m
2016: 6m
2017: 3m
2018 onwards: 2m

36m total. How unrealistic does that projection look given sales up to this day? It means doing 4m+~ in the US. That is more than what it has done LTD (22 months~)

And no, it is not likely WiiU will go beyond a 3rd year peak. I will have to research but I don't think any Nintendo home console has managed that? Only PS3 and 360 broke the mould.

Wii U will outsell the Gamecube.... That is my prediction. The there are a lot of unknowns with this console as it is. You never know which game will truly move units. for all we know, splatoon could be as big as Mario kart. wait and see, unless nintendo announces the next gen to wii U and it is 5mil below it I'm 100% sure the wii U will outsell the Gamecube. The only thing worrying me is how badly the tax increase in Japan hurt consoles over there... the wii U should have a better holiday season over there than last but that tax hike kinda knocked all home consoles down below 10k per week.

Well, drake is known for being VERY positive when it comes to these predictions..

I totally disagree. Nintendo always gives a strong 5-year cycle to its consoles and Reggie has said WiiU has a long way (timely speaking). I feel Nintendo will release a new console around 2018. It must not re-create the same mistakes.

WiiU needs PROMOTION! And of course, Nintendo HAS to improve its relationships with 3rd party devs.

Reaching 21m is very little. NGC sold like that because PS2 was massive (people bought it for a dvd player and they had the gaming as a bonus). At the moment, PS4 has none of the ps2 potential, let us get real. And yes, the sales of a console does affect the others!

My bet is a safe 35-40million! But everyone can predict!

I'm pessimistic. 15 million is what I think it will manage before news of the successor is unveiled, and maybe another million or two more before it is discontinued.

Having said that, Nintendo is good at surprising us with stuff - I mean, this NFC capability will have been sitting dormant for 2 years by the time Amiibos hit the shelves this holiday, and they are yet to utilise the Wii U's capability to support a second Gamepad controller. Will we see new games bundled with an extra controller in 2015? Who knows.

Even if Amiibo and any multiple Gamepad games are released, I don't think it will ever break 20 million.

Could very well be true.

Don't really see how the sales should increase in the following years, as basically everything big (except Smash) has already released. And even the released games haven't done much to lift game sales.
Not even Mario Kart did that much hardware moving. Many many Nintendo fans bought the system during launch for Mario Kart, 3D Mario etc.