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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2014 NPD Thread! PS4 - 190k, XBO - 160k, Wii U < 60k, PSV < 6k

noname2200 said:
chapset said:
noname2200 said:
chapset said:

I think the sale paterns have change because of last gen, instead of seeing console peak at the 3 or 4 year mark we will see them peak on year 5 or 6

Why's that?

ps3, xbox 360

Sorry, I'm a bit slow and don't follow.

ps3's peak year is number 5 and 360's is 6, and with the 10 year plan from both Sony and microsoft plus the industry major players all trying to maximize profit as much as they can this gen will be long and I expect the ps4 and X1 to peak in there 5th or 6th year



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

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3DS - less than 100K



Ouch at the Vita, no one expected it to be that low. Even the Wii doubled it.
WiiU keeping the momentum niice !!



Zanten said:

Now who's being silly? In the case of the Xbox One, that weaknesses is far more pronounced in the wider markets, the U.S isn't quite as lopsided. The gap between them, this month in particular, isn't so large that they 'aren't competition,' not by a long shot, and it combined with the Wii U actually take more than half of the total current gen console sales this month. (Again, in the U.S.) you are literally claiming that without those two consoles, that extra 230k sales would, what, vanish into the ether? That not even a quarter of those who bought an Xbox One or a Wii U this month would, with no Wii U or Xbox One to choose, opt for a PS4 rather than buying nothing at all? Care to explain why?

The claim that having two competitors make the PS4's situation no different then the PS2's when it had, literally, zero equivalent generation competition that summer, is ridiculous and just lazy thinking.

Yes the Xbox One isn't quite just quite as weak in the US but but does that matter that much since there were some cases where the PS4 nearly doubled/doubled on the Xbox One in some months ? 

Why would Nintendo gamers be interested in a PS4 ? It's clear that almost none of them are interested in a lot of Sony's first party games nor are they interested in third party games so it's most likely that they would just quit gaming altogether. 

With the xbox one it isn't clear what things will happen. If they do continue making games they'll be releasing them on PC from now on which would mean that Halo as well as other Microsoft titles will be released on there. If that happens a fair portion of xbox gamers will be migrating to PC or will be returning to PC gaming because of this. There's also small portion of Xbox gamers who are also disinterested with a lot of playstation exclusives so I can see them also going to PC rather than continuing their habits on playstation plus I also happen to share their sentiment about PS exclusives too. 

Causation does not imply correlation. Not everyone will opt out to buy the PS4 if nothing else exists. 



Zanten said:

Now who's being silly? In the case of the Xbox One, that weaknesses is far more pronounced in the wider markets, the U.S isn't quite as lopsided. The gap between them, this month in particular, isn't so large that they 'aren't competition,' not by a long shot, and it combined with the Wii U actually take more than half of the total current gen console sales this month. (Again, in the U.S.) you are literally claiming that without those two consoles, that extra 230k sales would, what, vanish into the ether? That not even a quarter of those who bought an Xbox One or a Wii U this month would, with no Wii U or Xbox One to choose, opt for a PS4 rather than buying nothing at all? Care to explain why?

The claim that having two competitors make the PS4's situation no different then the PS2's when it had, literally, zero equivalent generation competition that summer, is ridiculous and just lazy thinking.

Exactly. Just because the Wii U and X1 are weak competitors, you don't just round them down to "no competition". The PS2 and PS4's situations are drastically different. The PS2 had no competitors for a long while while the PS4 was released when the Wii U was already out. The X1 was released not long after. It's even more significant when we factor in stuff like the mobile market. The first iPhone wasn't even out during much of the PS2 era and the iPhone couldn't play games until the 2nd gen. Nowadays, every mobile device with a touchscreen can play a plethora of mobile games which greatly complicates the gaming market. The gaming market now is a way way tougher cookie to crack. And this is just one of the major differences between now and then.

Then again, as said a billion times already. Why compare to the king of consoles? When you compare any system to the king, obviously the PS2 always win. If you're saying that the PS4 is underperforming compared to the PS2 (in which it's currently not), well DUH! However, you cannot extrapolate from only the summer months and draw a conclusion. As I've said before, what if the PS4 is the better performing autumn, winter, and spring console? It may do worse than the PS2 in summertime, but if it's beating its grandfather in 3 of the 4 seasons, would you still call that underperforming?



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fatslob-:O said:
Zanten said:

Now who's being silly? In the case of the Xbox One, that weaknesses is far more pronounced in the wider markets, the U.S isn't quite as lopsided. The gap between them, this month in particular, isn't so large that they 'aren't competition,' not by a long shot, and it combined with the Wii U actually take more than half of the total current gen console sales this month. (Again, in the U.S.) you are literally claiming that without those two consoles, that extra 230k sales would, what, vanish into the ether? That not even a quarter of those who bought an Xbox One or a Wii U this month would, with no Wii U or Xbox One to choose, opt for a PS4 rather than buying nothing at all? Care to explain why?

The claim that having two competitors make the PS4's situation no different then the PS2's when it had, literally, zero equivalent generation competition that summer, is ridiculous and just lazy thinking.

Yes the Xbox One isn't quite just quite as weak in the US but but does that matter that much since there were some cases where the PS4 nearly doubled/doubled on the Xbox One in some months ? 

Why would Nintendo gamers be interested in a PS4 ? It's clear that almost none of them are interested in a lot of Sony's first party games nor are they interested in third party games so it's most likely that they would just quit gaming altogether. 

With the xbox one it isn't clear what things will happen. If they do continue making games they'll be releasing them on PC from now on which would mean that Halo as well as other Microsoft titles will be released on there. If that happens a fair portion of xbox gamers will be migrating to PC or will be returning to PC gaming because of this. There's also small portion of Xbox gamers who are also disinterested with a lot of playstation exclusives so I can see them also going to PC rather than continuing their habits on playstation plus I also happen to share their sentiment about PS exclusives too. 

Causation does not imply correlation. Not everyone will opt out to buy the PS4 if nothing else exists. 


But not everyone has to. Your evident required minimum of 250k units is one the PS4 falls short of by about 60k this month. Even massively lowballing an estimate of, say, 10k Destiny bundle pre-orders in the U.S. for the entire month- which, by the way it is charting, is likely substantially short of the real figure it accumulated, as it would mean the bundle stocked up, at best, 60k units in all the months it's been available for pre-order- then less than a third of the Xbox One sales alone would account for that; and since, unlike the Nintendo gamers you mentioned, Xbox gamers ARE interested in third party games, there's significantly more crossover.

Your insistence that, presumably, more than sixty-six percent of Xbox gamers who hopped aboard this month will go exclusively PC rather than Playstation, seems entirely based off your own personal feelings, and kind of ignore the fact that the Xbox One doesn't even have much reason to be selling its 130k units this August. What exclusives does the Xbox One currently have that make it preferable to PC, i.e. why are people buying an Xbox One this summer in the first place? o.O Halo MCC, Sunset Overdrive, Quantum Break, those are months away, and so in terms of content not coming to PC, we're left with Killer Instinct, Forza... some Kinect games... technically Dead Rising 3 and Ryse haven't, I think, made it to PC YET, but if someone was going to buy an Xbox One just for those games, they'd have done it at launch. There's another free game bundle releasing in a month or two, so it's not like people feel the pressing, overwhelming need to get a free game bundle JUST because it has a free game- heck, the Sunset Overdrive bundle is charting teeeeerribly.

Again, there doesn't have to be a 100% transfer of sales potential to hit your ideal number. There doesn't even have to be a 30% transfer of the total figures, and depending on how Destiny bundles tracked month by month, the percentage required could be very small. You're rejecting one absolute- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will inevitably buy a PS4- which is fair enough, but are instead injecting an absolute of your own- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will absolutely NOT buy a PS4, in any notable numbers, at all. The Nintendo angle? Fine, I'll concede there's a significant difference in content style, although I think you're oversimplifying the idea that all Nintendo purchasers have no interests outside of Nintendo; still, we'll call any sales transfers from that camp an outlier.

But the Xbox angle? Come on, man. It would help your case if the Xbox One actually had much in the way of exclusive content currently available that wasn't on, or coming, to PC.

We're not even factoring in the part where, although this is the PS2's first summer in the U.S., it is its second summer on the overall market, giving developers more time and opportunity to familiarize themselves with the hardware, build up a backlog roster of titles, and generate overseas hype. Or the aforementioned Destiny bundle, whose success would affect on-the-month sales of the PS4- as we saw with the Xbox One, when the initial availability of bundle pre-orders dropped the base Xbox One down the charts substantially; the reason the PS4 remained ahead, likely, being because its total level of consumer interest let it maintain a chart dominating position even when its sales were being nibbled at. Or the very difference in the nature of the competition, with far more third-party crossover this generation than the last, making it more difficult for either the PS4 or the Xbox One to stand out in contrast to its competitors than it was for the PS2 to stand out against the Gamecube and Xbox.

The PS2's success was a Perfect Storm of surrounding factors culminating in a boost that bordered on Epic; it's a large part of why other consoles have failed to get close to that Golden Standard, because even the PS2's achievement was greatly aided by some exceptionally fortunate circumstances that the others have yet to duplicate. And yet, you've steadfastly ignored, refused and denied a number of factors that have been presented to you regularly indicating this. You ignore the inevitable change in market conditions, because apparently nothing but the raw numbers matter.

But the kicker is, you were very careful to focus on the fact that the PS2 was only released in Japan its first number of months, so obviously you are capable of kind of, sort of taking extrenuating circumstances into account. Just not very many.

Instead of looking at 'The Big Picture,' you're taking a very narrow sliver of that picture, sticking it on a projector, and calling that The Big Picture instead. Sure, you make it look like a big picture, but you cropped out an incredible amount of information to support your conclusion.



Zanten, Doer Of The Things

Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

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fatslob-:O said:
Zanten said:

Now who's being silly? In the case of the Xbox One, that weaknesses is far more pronounced in the wider markets, the U.S isn't quite as lopsided. The gap between them, this month in particular, isn't so large that they 'aren't competition,' not by a long shot, and it combined with the Wii U actually take more than half of the total current gen console sales this month. (Again, in the U.S.) you are literally claiming that without those two consoles, that extra 230k sales would, what, vanish into the ether? That not even a quarter of those who bought an Xbox One or a Wii U this month would, with no Wii U or Xbox One to choose, opt for a PS4 rather than buying nothing at all? Care to explain why?

The claim that having two competitors make the PS4's situation no different then the PS2's when it had, literally, zero equivalent generation competition that summer, is ridiculous and just lazy thinking.

Yes the Xbox One isn't quite just quite as weak in the US but but does that matter that much since there were some cases where the PS4 nearly doubled/doubled on the Xbox One in some months ? 

Why would Nintendo gamers be interested in a PS4 ? It's clear that almost none of them are interested in a lot of Sony's first party games nor are they interested in third party games so it's most likely that they would just quit gaming altogether. 

With the xbox one it isn't clear what things will happen. If they do continue making games they'll be releasing them on PC from now on which would mean that Halo as well as other Microsoft titles will be released on there. If that happens a fair portion of xbox gamers will be migrating to PC or will be returning to PC gaming because of this. There's also small portion of Xbox gamers who are also disinterested with a lot of playstation exclusives so I can see them also going to PC rather than continuing their habits on playstation plus I also happen to share their sentiment about PS exclusives too. 

Causation does not imply correlation. Not everyone will opt out to buy the PS4 if nothing else exists. 

Any gamer will be intrested in a PS4 whatever side they may be on by its varied and vast library of games, you mistakenly think fanboys on a forum in any way represent gamers as a whole be it nintendo gamers ms sony pc whatever.  Out of the hundreths of million of potential console sales only a tiny fraction have some illogical emotional tie to which companys product they game on.  



Zanten said:

But not everyone has to. Your evident required minimum of 250k units is one the PS4 falls short of by about 60k this month. Even massively lowballing an estimate of, say, 10k Destiny bundle pre-orders in the U.S. for the entire month- which, by the way it is charting, is likely substantially short of the real figure it accumulated, as it would mean the bundle stocked up, at best, 60k units in all the months it's been available for pre-order- then less than a third of the Xbox One sales alone would account for that; and since, unlike the Nintendo gamers you mentioned, Xbox gamers ARE interested in third party games, there's significantly more crossover.

Your insistence that, presumably, more than sixty-six percent of Xbox gamers who hopped aboard this month will go exclusively PC rather than Playstation, seems entirely based off your own personal feelings, and kind of ignore the fact that the Xbox One doesn't even have much reason to be selling its 130k units this August. What exclusives does the Xbox One currently have that make it preferable to PC, i.e. why are people buying an Xbox One this summer in the first place? o.O Halo MCC, Sunset Overdrive, Quantum Break, those are months away, and so in terms of content not coming to PC, we're left with Killer Instinct, Forza... some Kinect games... technically Dead Rising 3 and Ryse haven't, I think, made it to PC YET, but if someone was going to buy an Xbox One just for those games, they'd have done it at launch. There's another free game bundle releasing in a month or two, so it's not like people feel the pressing, overwhelming need to get a free game bundle JUST because it has a free game- heck, the Sunset Overdrive bundle is charting teeeeerribly.

Again, there doesn't have to be a 100% transfer of sales potential to hit your ideal number. There doesn't even have to be a 30% transfer of the total figures, and depending on how Destiny bundles tracked month by month, the percentage required could be very small. You're rejecting one absolute- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will inevitably buy a PS4- which is fair enough, but are instead injecting an absolute of your own- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will absolutely NOT buy a PS4, in any notable numbers, at all. The Nintendo angle? Fine, I'll concede there's a significant difference in content style, although I think you're oversimplifying the idea that all Nintendo purchasers have no interests outside of Nintendo; still, we'll call any sales transfers from that camp an outlier.

But the Xbox angle? Come on, man. It would help your case if the Xbox One actually had much in the way of exclusive content currently available that wasn't on, or coming, to PC.

We're not even factoring in the part where, although this is the PS2's first summer in the U.S., it is its second summer on the overall market, giving developers more time and opportunity to familiarize themselves with the hardware, build up a backlog roster of titles, and generate overseas hype. Or the aforementioned Destiny bundle, whose success would affect on-the-month sales of the PS4- as we saw with the Xbox One, when the initial availability of bundle pre-orders dropped the base Xbox One down the charts substantially; the reason the PS4 remained ahead, likely, being because its total level of consumer interest let it maintain a chart dominating position even when its sales were being nibbled at. Or the very difference in the nature of the competition, with far more third-party crossover this generation than the last, making it more difficult for either the PS4 or the Xbox One to stand out in contrast to its competitors than it was for the PS2 to stand out against the Gamecube and Xbox.

The PS2's success was a Perfect Storm of surrounding factors culminating in a boost that bordered on Epic; it's a large part of why other consoles have failed to get close to that Golden Standard, because even the PS2's achievement was greatly aided by some exceptionally fortunate circumstances that the others have yet to duplicate. And yet, you've steadfastly ignored, refused and denied a number of factors that have been presented to you regularly indicating this. You ignore the inevitable change in market conditions, because apparently nothing but the raw numbers matter.

But the kicker is, you were very careful to focus on the fact that the PS2 was only released in Japan its first number of months, so obviously you are capable of kind of, sort of taking extrenuating circumstances into account. Just not very many.

Instead of looking at 'The Big Picture,' you're taking a very narrow sliver of that picture, sticking it on a projector, and calling that The Big Picture instead. Sure, you make it look like a big picture, but you cropped out an incredible amount of information to support your conclusion.

Did I ever insinuate that 60% of the Xbox One sales were going to translate to PC's ? Did I even give a specific number about how many would switch to PC ? As for exclusives I'm fairly sure that Forza 5 is a fair reason for picking up an Xbox One over a PC but NONE of these things matter much since the majority of customers at the current platforms life cycle consists of a lot of customers with a platform preference. Infact the vast majority of customers who mostly holds indifference towards console manufacturers are already on the PS4 since half of the base consists of non PS3 owners and software sales also promotes this notion as well so it's not like if the xbox one were gone that the PS4 would immediately see a much higher influx of sales than before. A lot of the current Xbox One owners are already fans of it's exclusive games. 

Xbox One posing as a threat to the PS4's current sales is a pretty weak excuse when it's clear that most of the current Xbox One owners are fans of Microsoft games. 

Not only has the PS4 been under 250K the fourth time but along with those four instances the PS4 was also sub 200K. How do you explain that ? 

I'm not here to downplay the PS4 per se but anyone can see that as a market leader the PS4 isn't all that impressive. When all is said and done I'm going to be purchasing the PS4 first along with an XB1 down the line. 



Zanten said:

But not everyone has to. Your evident required minimum of 250k units is one the PS4 falls short of by about 60k this month. Even massively lowballing an estimate of, say, 10k Destiny bundle pre-orders in the U.S. for the entire month- which, by the way it is charting, is likely substantially short of the real figure it accumulated, as it would mean the bundle stocked up, at best, 60k units in all the months it's been available for pre-order- then less than a third of the Xbox One sales alone would account for that; and since, unlike the Nintendo gamers you mentioned, Xbox gamers ARE interested in third party games, there's significantly more crossover.

Your insistence that, presumably, more than sixty-six percent of Xbox gamers who hopped aboard this month will go exclusively PC rather than Playstation, seems entirely based off your own personal feelings, and kind of ignore the fact that the Xbox One doesn't even have much reason to be selling its 130k units this August. What exclusives does the Xbox One currently have that make it preferable to PC, i.e. why are people buying an Xbox One this summer in the first place? o.O Halo MCC, Sunset Overdrive, Quantum Break, those are months away, and so in terms of content not coming to PC, we're left with Killer Instinct, Forza... some Kinect games... technically Dead Rising 3 and Ryse haven't, I think, made it to PC YET, but if someone was going to buy an Xbox One just for those games, they'd have done it at launch. There's another free game bundle releasing in a month or two, so it's not like people feel the pressing, overwhelming need to get a free game bundle JUST because it has a free game- heck, the Sunset Overdrive bundle is charting teeeeerribly.

Again, there doesn't have to be a 100% transfer of sales potential to hit your ideal number. There doesn't even have to be a 30% transfer of the total figures, and depending on how Destiny bundles tracked month by month, the percentage required could be very small. You're rejecting one absolute- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will inevitably buy a PS4- which is fair enough, but are instead injecting an absolute of your own- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will absolutely NOT buy a PS4, in any notable numbers, at all. The Nintendo angle? Fine, I'll concede there's a significant difference in content style, although I think you're oversimplifying the idea that all Nintendo purchasers have no interests outside of Nintendo; still, we'll call any sales transfers from that camp an outlier.

But the Xbox angle? Come on, man. It would help your case if the Xbox One actually had much in the way of exclusive content currently available that wasn't on, or coming, to PC.

We're not even factoring in the part where, although this is the PS2's first summer in the U.S., it is its second summer on the overall market, giving developers more time and opportunity to familiarize themselves with the hardware, build up a backlog roster of titles, and generate overseas hype. Or the aforementioned Destiny bundle, whose success would affect on-the-month sales of the PS4- as we saw with the Xbox One, when the initial availability of bundle pre-orders dropped the base Xbox One down the charts substantially; the reason the PS4 remained ahead, likely, being because its total level of consumer interest let it maintain a chart dominating position even when its sales were being nibbled at. Or the very difference in the nature of the competition, with far more third-party crossover this generation than the last, making it more difficult for either the PS4 or the Xbox One to stand out in contrast to its competitors than it was for the PS2 to stand out against the Gamecube and Xbox.

The PS2's success was a Perfect Storm of surrounding factors culminating in a boost that bordered on Epic; it's a large part of why other consoles have failed to get close to that Golden Standard, because even the PS2's achievement was greatly aided by some exceptionally fortunate circumstances that the others have yet to duplicate. And yet, you've steadfastly ignored, refused and denied a number of factors that have been presented to you regularly indicating this. You ignore the inevitable change in market conditions, because apparently nothing but the raw numbers matter.

But the kicker is, you were very careful to focus on the fact that the PS2 was only released in Japan its first number of months, so obviously you are capable of kind of, sort of taking extrenuating circumstances into account. Just not very many.

Instead of looking at 'The Big Picture,' you're taking a very narrow sliver of that picture, sticking it on a projector, and calling that The Big Picture instead. Sure, you make it look like a big picture, but you cropped out an incredible amount of information to support your conclusion.

Very well said.

TLDR: PS2 and PS4's situations are not apples to apples. You have to look past the raw numbers.



fatslob-:O said:
 

Did I ever insinuate that 60% of the Xbox One sales were going to translate to PC's ? Did I even give a specific number about how many would switch to PC ? As for exclusives I'm fairly sure that Forza 5 is a fair reason for picking up an Xbox One over a PC but NONE of these things matter much since the majority of customers at the current platforms life cycle consists of a lot of customers with a platform preference. Infact the vast majority of customers who mostly holds indifference towards console manufacturers are already on the PS4 since half of the base consists of non PS3 owners and software sales also promotes this notion as well so it's not like if the xbox one were gone that the PS4 would immediately see a much higher influx of sales than before. A lot of the current Xbox One owners are already fans of it's exclusive games. 

Xbox One posing as a threat to the PS4's current sales is a pretty weak excuse when it's clear that most of the current Xbox One owners are fans of Microsoft games. 

Not only has the PS4 been under 250K the fourth time but along with those four instances the PS4 was also sub 200K. How do you explain that ? 

I'm not here to downplay the PS4 per se but anyone can see that as a market leader the PS4 isn't all that impressive. When all is said and done I'm going to be purchasing the PS4 first along with an XB1 down the line. 


To Bold:

 Well, let's break it down.

Sub 250k sales = Dissapointing

Estimated gap between current month and that 250k requirement = 60k.

I'm assuming you have no complaints to subtracting 10k for that lowballed Destiny estimate? I mean, come on, 2500 preorders a week isn't THAT big a stretch, and is likely underestimating it significantly. So that leaves us with around a 50k gap. Which is less than one third of what the Xbox One sold this month, and assumed that not a single Wii U purchaser would ever buy a PS4. (So... would the Nintendo gamers also go PC, or what? o.O )

So, either you're advancing that significantly more than sixty percent of consumers who bought an Xbox One this month would not buy a PS4 if it was the only console on the market. (Which, presumably, either leaves quitting gaming altogether, converting to mobile, or jumping to PC.) Or alternatively, you're acknowledging that without the Xbox One there, there's a very good chance the PS4 would reach those coveted 250k numbers. (And keep in mind, this is assuming the Destiny bundle preorders were not, against all apparent indications, pre-ordering in very high numbers at all. The higher the bundle's pre-orders are, the closer that gap gets, and the less Xbox One 'converts' are needed to reach your milestone.)

 

 

To Italics: We've explained it. Repeatedly. Shown you the differences between the situations you've advanced as the reason it SHOULD be 250k, and the situation we are currently in. Your Golden Standard is entirely of your own making, and is based off one console that, as mentioned, had perhaps some of the luckiest breaks in console history, and another console whose audience has largely moved on to Candy Crush Saga. =P

You're the one turning up your nose, covering your ears, and saying 'Nope! Doesn't matter! Makes no difference!' And you make this decision based off gut instinct, this 'nawh, I don't think it really matters, because it doesn't reasons mumble.' Which works against one, maybe two outlying differences, but there are so many things to consider, such a massive lack of similarity between both products and their surrounding markets, it is essentially apples to oranges. Comparisons to the PS3, the Xbox 360, even the Xbox One, are more apt because the circumstances surrounding them aren't quite as incompatible as the PS2's; differences, certainly, (for one thing, the PS3 and Xbox One shot itself repeatedly in the foot,) but far fewer.

At this point, the Xbox 360 is basically the most comparable measuring stick in terms of circumstance; both it and the PS4 released to largely positive acclaim, neither went with 'motion controls' or other casual-drawing methods, both were priced in the mid-range, being more expensive than the Wii/Wii U, but cheaper than the PS3/original Xbox One. Both had direct competitors that shot themselves in the foot. The markets it released in were less different seven years ago than they were well over a decade ago. Both had some element of a 'head start,' although in the PS4's case it largely applied to the wider markets outside the U.S.

But instead you're just looking at 'whatever had bigger numbers,' and completely ignoring why they had bigger numbers.

 

To Underlined: My issue isn't your conclusion, it's your methodology. If you came to the same conclusion based on the actual wider picture, taking into account all factors available, then fantastic. But you're not. Again, you are vastly oversimplifying a situation that is just not simple.

Let me put it this way. You said that we can't really look at the first few months on the market as a sign of the PS4 being ahead of the PS2 because the PS2 was only released in Japan, making it an unfair and unbalanced comparison. I agree with you on that, completely, because you're actually taking into account more than just which number is bigger than the other.

But what if I said 'It doesn't matter, there's no proof that the U.S. and European models, if released in the same timespan as the Japanese model, would have pushed the PS2 past the PS4 in sales, because there's no proof it would have had the same high sales without the extra time to build up a game catalogue.'

It's technically true, at least no less true than what you're saying with regards to the Xbox One and Wii U not making much of a difference, because both rely on circumstances that can't really be tested, on 'could have' or 'could not have.' It's all hypothetical.

I could say 'the launch in the U.S. went better that summer than it would have gone in the previous summer, so counting that summer is pointless, as the PS4 would still outsell the PS2, even if the PS2 released in all the same markets,' and there's not really a whole lot you can do to disprove it.

But just because you can't disprove it, doesn't mean my point isn't standing on incredibly thin ice. If you read that point and thought 'Jesus, that's ridiculous,' that's essentially how you sound to me. =P



Zanten, Doer Of The Things

Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.