Did I ever insinuate that 60% of the Xbox One sales were going to translate to PC's ? Did I even give a specific number about how many would switch to PC ? As for exclusives I'm fairly sure that Forza 5 is a fair reason for picking up an Xbox One over a PC but NONE of these things matter much since the majority of customers at the current platforms life cycle consists of a lot of customers with a platform preference. Infact the vast majority of customers who mostly holds indifference towards console manufacturers are already on the PS4 since half of the base consists of non PS3 owners and software sales also promotes this notion as well so it's not like if the xbox one were gone that the PS4 would immediately see a much higher influx of sales than before. A lot of the current Xbox One owners are already fans of it's exclusive games.
Xbox One posing as a threat to the PS4's current sales is a pretty weak excuse when it's clear that most of the current Xbox One owners are fans of Microsoft games.
Not only has the PS4 been under 250K the fourth time but along with those four instances the PS4 was also sub 200K. How do you explain that ?
I'm not here to downplay the PS4 per se but anyone can see that as a market leader the PS4 isn't all that impressive. When all is said and done I'm going to be purchasing the PS4 first along with an XB1 down the line.
Well, let's break it down.
Sub 250k sales = Dissapointing
Estimated gap between current month and that 250k requirement = 60k.
I'm assuming you have no complaints to subtracting 10k for that lowballed Destiny estimate? I mean, come on, 2500 preorders a week isn't THAT big a stretch, and is likely underestimating it significantly. So that leaves us with around a 50k gap. Which is less than one third of what the Xbox One sold this month, and assumed that not a single Wii U purchaser would ever buy a PS4. (So... would the Nintendo gamers also go PC, or what? o.O )
So, either you're advancing that significantly more than sixty percent of consumers who bought an Xbox One this month would not buy a PS4 if it was the only console on the market. (Which, presumably, either leaves quitting gaming altogether, converting to mobile, or jumping to PC.) Or alternatively, you're acknowledging that without the Xbox One there, there's a very good chance the PS4 would reach those coveted 250k numbers. (And keep in mind, this is assuming the Destiny bundle preorders were not, against all apparent indications, pre-ordering in very high numbers at all. The higher the bundle's pre-orders are, the closer that gap gets, and the less Xbox One 'converts' are needed to reach your milestone.)
To Italics: We've explained it. Repeatedly. Shown you the differences between the situations you've advanced as the reason it SHOULD be 250k, and the situation we are currently in. Your Golden Standard is entirely of your own making, and is based off one console that, as mentioned, had perhaps some of the luckiest breaks in console history, and another console whose audience has largely moved on to Candy Crush Saga. =P
You're the one turning up your nose, covering your ears, and saying 'Nope! Doesn't matter! Makes no difference!' And you make this decision based off gut instinct, this 'nawh, I don't think it really matters, because it doesn't reasons mumble.' Which works against one, maybe two outlying differences, but there are so many things to consider, such a massive lack of similarity between both products and their surrounding markets, it is essentially apples to oranges. Comparisons to the PS3, the Xbox 360, even the Xbox One, are more apt because the circumstances surrounding them aren't quite as incompatible as the PS2's; differences, certainly, (for one thing, the PS3 and Xbox One shot itself repeatedly in the foot,) but far fewer.
At this point, the Xbox 360 is basically the most comparable measuring stick in terms of circumstance; both it and the PS4 released to largely positive acclaim, neither went with 'motion controls' or other casual-drawing methods, both were priced in the mid-range, being more expensive than the Wii/Wii U, but cheaper than the PS3/original Xbox One. Both had direct competitors that shot themselves in the foot. The markets it released in were less different seven years ago than they were well over a decade ago. Both had some element of a 'head start,' although in the PS4's case it largely applied to the wider markets outside the U.S.
But instead you're just looking at 'whatever had bigger numbers,' and completely ignoring why they had bigger numbers.
To Underlined: My issue isn't your conclusion, it's your methodology. If you came to the same conclusion based on the actual wider picture, taking into account all factors available, then fantastic. But you're not. Again, you are vastly oversimplifying a situation that is just not simple.
Let me put it this way. You said that we can't really look at the first few months on the market as a sign of the PS4 being ahead of the PS2 because the PS2 was only released in Japan, making it an unfair and unbalanced comparison. I agree with you on that, completely, because you're actually taking into account more than just which number is bigger than the other.
But what if I said 'It doesn't matter, there's no proof that the U.S. and European models, if released in the same timespan as the Japanese model, would have pushed the PS2 past the PS4 in sales, because there's no proof it would have had the same high sales without the extra time to build up a game catalogue.'
It's technically true, at least no less true than what you're saying with regards to the Xbox One and Wii U not making much of a difference, because both rely on circumstances that can't really be tested, on 'could have' or 'could not have.' It's all hypothetical.
I could say 'the launch in the U.S. went better that summer than it would have gone in the previous summer, so counting that summer is pointless, as the PS4 would still outsell the PS2, even if the PS2 released in all the same markets,' and there's not really a whole lot you can do to disprove it.
But just because you can't disprove it, doesn't mean my point isn't standing on incredibly thin ice. If you read that point and thought 'Jesus, that's ridiculous,' that's essentially how you sound to me. =P
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