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fatslob-:O said:
Zanten said:

Now who's being silly? In the case of the Xbox One, that weaknesses is far more pronounced in the wider markets, the U.S isn't quite as lopsided. The gap between them, this month in particular, isn't so large that they 'aren't competition,' not by a long shot, and it combined with the Wii U actually take more than half of the total current gen console sales this month. (Again, in the U.S.) you are literally claiming that without those two consoles, that extra 230k sales would, what, vanish into the ether? That not even a quarter of those who bought an Xbox One or a Wii U this month would, with no Wii U or Xbox One to choose, opt for a PS4 rather than buying nothing at all? Care to explain why?

The claim that having two competitors make the PS4's situation no different then the PS2's when it had, literally, zero equivalent generation competition that summer, is ridiculous and just lazy thinking.

Yes the Xbox One isn't quite just quite as weak in the US but but does that matter that much since there were some cases where the PS4 nearly doubled/doubled on the Xbox One in some months ? 

Why would Nintendo gamers be interested in a PS4 ? It's clear that almost none of them are interested in a lot of Sony's first party games nor are they interested in third party games so it's most likely that they would just quit gaming altogether. 

With the xbox one it isn't clear what things will happen. If they do continue making games they'll be releasing them on PC from now on which would mean that Halo as well as other Microsoft titles will be released on there. If that happens a fair portion of xbox gamers will be migrating to PC or will be returning to PC gaming because of this. There's also small portion of Xbox gamers who are also disinterested with a lot of playstation exclusives so I can see them also going to PC rather than continuing their habits on playstation plus I also happen to share their sentiment about PS exclusives too. 

Causation does not imply correlation. Not everyone will opt out to buy the PS4 if nothing else exists. 

But not everyone has to. Your evident required minimum of 250k units is one the PS4 falls short of by about 60k this month. Even massively lowballing an estimate of, say, 10k Destiny bundle pre-orders in the U.S. for the entire month- which, by the way it is charting, is likely substantially short of the real figure it accumulated, as it would mean the bundle stocked up, at best, 60k units in all the months it's been available for pre-order- then less than a third of the Xbox One sales alone would account for that; and since, unlike the Nintendo gamers you mentioned, Xbox gamers ARE interested in third party games, there's significantly more crossover.

Your insistence that, presumably, more than sixty-six percent of Xbox gamers who hopped aboard this month will go exclusively PC rather than Playstation, seems entirely based off your own personal feelings, and kind of ignore the fact that the Xbox One doesn't even have much reason to be selling its 130k units this August. What exclusives does the Xbox One currently have that make it preferable to PC, i.e. why are people buying an Xbox One this summer in the first place? o.O Halo MCC, Sunset Overdrive, Quantum Break, those are months away, and so in terms of content not coming to PC, we're left with Killer Instinct, Forza... some Kinect games... technically Dead Rising 3 and Ryse haven't, I think, made it to PC YET, but if someone was going to buy an Xbox One just for those games, they'd have done it at launch. There's another free game bundle releasing in a month or two, so it's not like people feel the pressing, overwhelming need to get a free game bundle JUST because it has a free game- heck, the Sunset Overdrive bundle is charting teeeeerribly.

Again, there doesn't have to be a 100% transfer of sales potential to hit your ideal number. There doesn't even have to be a 30% transfer of the total figures, and depending on how Destiny bundles tracked month by month, the percentage required could be very small. You're rejecting one absolute- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will inevitably buy a PS4- which is fair enough, but are instead injecting an absolute of your own- gamers who can't buy a Wii U or Xbox One will absolutely NOT buy a PS4, in any notable numbers, at all. The Nintendo angle? Fine, I'll concede there's a significant difference in content style, although I think you're oversimplifying the idea that all Nintendo purchasers have no interests outside of Nintendo; still, we'll call any sales transfers from that camp an outlier.

But the Xbox angle? Come on, man. It would help your case if the Xbox One actually had much in the way of exclusive content currently available that wasn't on, or coming, to PC.

We're not even factoring in the part where, although this is the PS2's first summer in the U.S., it is its second summer on the overall market, giving developers more time and opportunity to familiarize themselves with the hardware, build up a backlog roster of titles, and generate overseas hype. Or the aforementioned Destiny bundle, whose success would affect on-the-month sales of the PS4- as we saw with the Xbox One, when the initial availability of bundle pre-orders dropped the base Xbox One down the charts substantially; the reason the PS4 remained ahead, likely, being because its total level of consumer interest let it maintain a chart dominating position even when its sales were being nibbled at. Or the very difference in the nature of the competition, with far more third-party crossover this generation than the last, making it more difficult for either the PS4 or the Xbox One to stand out in contrast to its competitors than it was for the PS2 to stand out against the Gamecube and Xbox.

The PS2's success was a Perfect Storm of surrounding factors culminating in a boost that bordered on Epic; it's a large part of why other consoles have failed to get close to that Golden Standard, because even the PS2's achievement was greatly aided by some exceptionally fortunate circumstances that the others have yet to duplicate. And yet, you've steadfastly ignored, refused and denied a number of factors that have been presented to you regularly indicating this. You ignore the inevitable change in market conditions, because apparently nothing but the raw numbers matter.

But the kicker is, you were very careful to focus on the fact that the PS2 was only released in Japan its first number of months, so obviously you are capable of kind of, sort of taking extrenuating circumstances into account. Just not very many.

Instead of looking at 'The Big Picture,' you're taking a very narrow sliver of that picture, sticking it on a projector, and calling that The Big Picture instead. Sure, you make it look like a big picture, but you cropped out an incredible amount of information to support your conclusion.

Zanten, Doer Of The Things

Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.