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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2014 NPD Thread! PS4 - 190k, XBO - 160k, Wii U < 60k, PSV < 6k

thismeintiel on 12 September 2014
DerNebel said:
So what do we have here? X1 160k is decent I guess, looks like the Madden bundle did some work. Wii U under 70k, expected, not much to say, the overtrackment is somewhere else in the world.

Then there seems to be a discussion going on about the PS4 underperforming because it did below 200k in a summer month in the US, right before the month in which the highly anticipated white PS4 bundle comes out and while the PS4 is clearly outrunning every other system before it outside the US and Japan, well keep having that discussion, if it's fun for you.





 

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Zanten on 12 September 2014
thismeintiel said:
Zanten said:


Bah, ninja'd. xD Just to reinforce this point in agreement, would like to note that the Dreamcast was discontinued in March 2001. For those who don't know, the other sixth gen consoles, (i.e. the Gamecube and Xbox,) didn't release in North America until November 2001, meaning that, as far as sixth generation consoles in North America went, the PS2 had April 2001 til October 2001 entirely to itself. The added bonus of having essentially bitchslapped a competitor- the Dreamcast- into oblivion would no doubt have provided a substantial PR boost as well, as God only knows people tend to flock towards Winners.

So yeah, with the summer entirely to itself... how could it NOT have sold at least 250k? The total NPD this month alone is 420k, and while there will be some crossover, unless someone wants to claim that more than a small group of people bought two or three pricey pieces of hardware in a SINGLE month, (and did so consistently for all the summer months,) then it isn't hard to imagine why a console that has two direct competitors (one of whom is, in the U.S. at least, providing stiff opposition,) isn't selling as well as a console that had none.

If we're to accept 'Oh, the PS2 was only in Japan those first months, we HAVE to take that into consideration,' then fine. But if one doesn't also take into consideration that its vaunted first summer on the market was spent with absolutely no sixth generation competition whatsoever, then yes, one is just cherry picking the numbers and ignoring any facts that get in the way of their case. =P For people insisting on a frank and rational comparison of two generations, a really bad job is being done if one somehow completely misses, or deliberately ignores, this extremely important circumstance.

Good points.  You could also, once again, look at the 360.  It had no competition for a year, not even an early Dreamcast-like failure, yet it had months that were even worse than the PS4 is having, with two other consoles competing right out the gate.  Even with the lower months, however, the 360 won the US.  Playstation consoles have always showed that these gens are marathons, not sprints, even when they start in front.  It's just last gen they didn't have the best start, lol.


Very true, but there's something in the PS2's circumstance that made such an uncontested period even more effective than the 360's, which I believe translated to its even higher-than-360's NA sales and its highly dominant global sales.

The Xbox 360's head start occured during the beginning of its lifespan, and as a result during that inevitable period where the content is at its weakest, fewest titles, lowest amount of sales momentum, etc, etc, which likely worked to partially limit the advantage that came with the head start. By the time it hit its stride in its second year, the competition was out- though struggling- which took a bit of its thunder.

However, though 2001 was the PS2's first summer in North America, it was actually its second summer overall. It gave developers more time to get familiar with the hardware, allowed a greater backlog of titles, and had enough of an already established install base for more devs to hop on board creating titles for it. So not only did the PS2 have several months without competition during that period, it had several months without competition after it had already built up content. It built up such an insane head of steam in terms of titles, install base, and sales momentum, it basically ran laughing from any competition that rose up against it.



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Burek on 12 September 2014

So, a brief history reflection before anything:

May 2014: XOne sells horribly - 77K for the entire month

--- It's OK, people are waiting for diskinection, no problem at all.

August 2014: PS4 sells 190K, topping the charts and adding another 20% on its main competitor sporting a bundle with free Madden game.

--- Horrible sales, they should be ashamed of themselves. Let's forget all those white Destiny preorders people are waiting for.

 

- PS4 keeping its 20% lead over XOne, even in the month where XOne promotions ramped up with the free Madden game bundled in.

- PS4 version of Madden outselling XOne was expected.

- Madden bundle selling 41K. So basically a standard weekly sales of the console (160/4). People who wanted the console got a free download code, I guess. Madden becomes another game that fails to ignite XOne sales, with an outlook of the same happening to other free game bundles. It points to free Destiny giveaway with XOne purchase not doing anything for MS as well.

- WiiU needs new games.

- Vita back to its misery, doubt that PSTV will do much to increase its numbers (I presume Sony will report both sales added together).

 

My prediction:

- With Destiny overwhelmingly leaning toward PS4, CoD will also outsell its XOne version significantly. If $399 free Madden console did poorly, $499 free CoD console will not do much better, especially with many shooter/Activision fans sporting a new PS4. So, November, Microsoft's only hope at winning, will also be won by PS4. Perhaps with less than 20% margin due to the inevitable free MCC bundle, but will still win.



RealGamingExpert on 12 September 2014

Nothing too surprising. Wii U at less than 70k is a little worse than I expected, but nothing we didn't see coming.



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fatslob-:O on 12 September 2014
thismeintiel said:

Why are you explaining to me why the 360 took US?  I thought the explaination for numbers was not allowed?  Or is that only when it doesn't help your argument?  Darn all these rules.  Of course, if you want a real answer, your 250K number means nothing.  It's just one you made up and found to fit your argument.  BTW, do you have the numbers that prove the PS2 and Wii always sold that much?  And what is your cut off period, cause the Wii started to somewhat poorly over much of the year, only to get huge boosts during the holiday season.  I also bet if you had the numbers for the NES, the SNES, and the PS1, neither of them were consistently over 250K.

Even if those two did sell over 250K for the first 2-3 years, there are reasons why.  The PS2 was the follow up to the successful PS1 and had no competition for over a year.  The Wii was a phenomenom that mostly sold because of the game it was packaged with, but began to rapidly drop YOY after 2-3 years.  The PS4 is not either of these.  However, it is still going to take this gen and by quite a lot.  It's sales pattern in the US will most likely mirror that of the 360.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the One and PS4 swapped positions/numbers that their predecessors held.  PS4 will take EU even more handidly than the PS3 did, since the One is basically dead there.  Japan will see a rise in sales once the games start hitting, but probably won't match last gen's numbers.  Though, China and some of the newer territories will make up for that.

Now your just being silly ... it isn't just some number that I made up to crap on the all so mighty PS4. It is actually a golden standard for leading platforms past 5th generation. As for PS2 we only have solid monthly data past 2001 Q2 from NPD and it shows the PS2 breezing through 300K easily like a leading platform is supposed to compared to the PS4. There are some issues with 2001 October and 2001 Q2 but those months are most likely attributed to supply issues rather than demand much like the WII scenario. The cut off period is after 3 years seeing as that's usually when a console loses it's momentum so it's reasonable to expect the platform to lose some wind. This standard wouldn't work on 5th generation and before cause it's obvious that the market was much smaller at the time but since 6th and 7th had over 160+ million customers that's certainly a realistic expectation. 

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10423

Doesn't matter if the PS4 has competition. If the competition is weak (X1/WII U) then you may as well consider it as no competition at all. Being a successor to a leading console doesn't make anyone win. Just go take a look at the N64/PS3. Mirroring the sales of pattern of the xbox 360 in North America is fairly meh compared to previous market leaders



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Conegamer on 12 September 2014

Well this thread escalated quickly...

Could someone provide a summary of the numbers released so far? Looks like all of the big three home consoles would be around 10k overtracked, and Vita sales are just depressing.

Not too bad VGC. But obviously we can't be sure because we don't have the last week!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

AZWification on 12 September 2014

I'm  a bit disappointed  by WiiU numbers, but other than that everything it's OK!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

taus90 on 12 September 2014
fatslob-:O said:
thismeintiel said:

Why are you explaining to me why the 360 took US?  I thought the explaination for numbers was not allowed?  Or is that only when it doesn't help your argument?  Darn all these rules.  Of course, if you want a real answer, your 250K number means nothing.  It's just one you made up and found to fit your argument.  BTW, do you have the numbers that prove the PS2 and Wii always sold that much?  And what is your cut off period, cause the Wii started to somewhat poorly over much of the year, only to get huge boosts during the holiday season.  I also bet if you had the numbers for the NES, the SNES, and the PS1, neither of them were consistently over 250K.

Even if those two did sell over 250K for the first 2-3 years, there are reasons why.  The PS2 was the follow up to the successful PS1 and had no competition for over a year.  The Wii was a phenomenom that mostly sold because of the game it was packaged with, but began to rapidly drop YOY after 2-3 years.  The PS4 is not either of these.  However, it is still going to take this gen and by quite a lot.  It's sales pattern in the US will most likely mirror that of the 360.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the One and PS4 swapped positions/numbers that their predecessors held.  PS4 will take EU even more handidly than the PS3 did, since the One is basically dead there.  Japan will see a rise in sales once the games start hitting, but probably won't match last gen's numbers.  Though, China and some of the newer territories will make up for that.

Now your just being silly ... it isn't just some number that I made up to crap on the all so mighty PS4. It is actually a golden standard for leading platforms past 5th generation. As for PS2 we only have solid monthly data past 2001 Q2 from NPD and it shows the PS2 breezing through 300K easily like a leading platform is supposed to compared to the PS4. There are some issues with 2001 October and 2001 Q2 but those months are most likely attributed to supply issues rather than demand much like the WII scenario. The cut off period is after 3 years seeing as that's usually when a console loses it's momentum so it's reasonable to expect the platform to lose some wind. This standard wouldn't work on 5th generation and before cause it's obvious that the market was much smaller at the time but since 6th and 7th had over 160+ million customers that's certainly a realistic expectation. 

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10423

Doesn't matter if the PS4 has competition. If the competition is weak (X1/WII U) then you may as well consider it as no competition at all. Being a successor to a leading console doesn't make anyone win. Just go take a look at the N64/PS3. Mirroring the sales of pattern of the xbox 360 in North America is fairly meh compared to previous market leaders

LOL!! Feel sad for people who are trying to make an valid argument with you.



GamechaserBE on 12 September 2014

Some people's obsessions with numbers is reaching unhealthy levels ^^'



fatslob-:O on 12 September 2014
taus90 said:

LOL!! Feel sad for people who are trying to make an valid argument with you.

Point out the lie, otherwise you have no case ...