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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2014 NPD Thread! PS4 - 190k, XBO - 160k, Wii U < 60k, PSV < 6k

Vena said:
ethomaz said:

So you are giving me 100% certain PS4 will sell below Wii in it first holiday after launch? Well it can happen and can be more likely than the opposite but this didn't make sure it will happen.

When happen then we can talk about how PS4 lacked behing Wii.

I'm showing facts proving with numbers them... you guys says it will underperforming because guesses that it will sell less than Wii.


I work with statistics and raw experimental data, I never give 100% unless its the latter where I have physical things to present. I give estimations, predictions, and formulae from which conclusions can be drawn and then verified experimentally.

You're not really proving anything at the moment other than the fact that the PS4 launched strong while the Wii performed more consistently... which is their point, actually. They are saying, very specifically, that the strong launch and subsequent inconsistent and sliding month-to-month sales (barring out outlier and Destiny outlier next month) are a very, very bad sign of a front, loaded console that is not actually doing as well as people think it is doing... This is literally impossible to deny as its very much in the numbers you posted.

Trajectories paint a good picture. Trajectories can also be wrong... but then normally that isn't the case because a trajectory exists for a reason.

Your own data is especially damning if you compare 2007/2014 only.

Neither does comparing two different platform, from two different generations (2007 vs 2014) , catered towards two different demographic (casual vs hardcore) with diferent buying habbits (online vs retail) and at a very contrasting price point ($250 vs $399) is a good trajectory to begin with, its literally like comparing Candy Crush sales to GTA5. Your assumption based on trajectories is very far sighted at best PS4 could be compared to 360 coz similar audience, similar price point. And also about Wii performing consistently than PS4 could be considered as Ice bucket challenge,  given how its sales have been in past 3 years. and also it helps when ur $250 console is launched besides a $599 consoles.



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fatslob-:O said:
thismeintiel said:

You and soundwave should really stop.  You're just making yourself look ridiculous.  You're shifting this way and that to downplay the PS4's success.  YOU made up some fake 250K that a console has to sell, not the industry.  NO ONE but you.  And here's a fact, the 360 couldn't pull off a consistent 250K+ in the US, either.  But guess what?  IT WON THE US!  Just stop while you're behind.

Yet the only reason why the xbox 360 won America was because Sony had initially screwed up with the PS3 making Microsoft invite themselves to a good chunk of the North American market and the fact that Nintendo made a fatal move by giving the WII lackluster software support in it's near end of it's life cycle.

Why is the PS4 the only one having so much issues meeting the minimum of 250K when PS2 and WII easily cleared that mark ? Why don't you explain that for once ?

FYI I'm not downplaying the PS4's success. Infact I am congratulating it while remaining critical but I don't know how soundwave feels on this matter ...

Why are you explaining to me why the 360 took US?  I thought the explaination for numbers was not allowed?  Or is that only when it doesn't help your argument?  Darn all these rules.  Of course, if you want a real answer, your 250K number means nothing.  It's just one you made up and found to fit your argument.  BTW, do you have the numbers that prove the PS2 and Wii always sold that much?  And what is your cut off period, cause the Wii started to somewhat poorly over much of the year, only to get huge boosts during the holiday season.  I also bet if you had the numbers for the NES, the SNES, and the PS1, neither of them were consistently over 250K.

Even if those two did sell over 250K for the first 2-3 years, there are reasons why.  The PS2 was the follow up to the successful PS1 and had no competition for over a year.  The Wii was a phenomenom that mostly sold because of the game it was packaged with, but began to rapidly drop YOY after 2-3 years.  The PS4 is not either of these.  However, it is still going to take this gen and by quite a lot.  It's sales pattern in the US will most likely mirror that of the 360.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the One and PS4 swapped positions/numbers that their predecessors held.  PS4 will take EU even more handidly than the PS3 did, since the One is basically dead there.  Japan will see a rise in sales once the games start hitting, but probably won't match last gen's numbers.  Though, China and some of the newer territories will make up for that.



CGI-Quality said:

That's pretty much what I showed. What's key: 

PS2:

  • 13 months – March 31st, 2001 – 10.61 million

PS4:

  • 9 months – August 17th, 2014 – 10 million
Seeing how 10 million is the benchmark, that it was I felt was most important. It took the PS4 four months less (overall, I'm aware of the 7 month JP discrepancy for the PS2 and the 3 month difference for PS4) to hit it. Not sure how that can be spun, other than, again, mentioning Japan (which as I did with the Gran Turismo people last gen - the sales were made up elsewhere), but that's grasping at its absolute best.


Awesome.



vgc buddy ok. Great work Boutros, every month.



CosmicSex said:
fatslob-:O said:
thismeintiel said:

You and soundwave should really stop.  You're just making yourself look ridiculous.  You're shifting this way and that to downplay the PS4's success.  YOU made up some fake 250K that a console has to sell, not the industry.  NO ONE but you.  And here's a fact, the 360 couldn't pull off a consistent 250K+ in the US, either.  But guess what?  IT WON THE US!  Just stop while you're behind.

Yet the only reason why the xbox 360 won America was because Sony had initially screwed up with the PS3 making Microsoft invite themselves to a good chunk of the North American market and the fact that Nintendo made a fatal move by giving the WII lackluster software support in it's near end of it's life cycle.

Why is the PS4 the only one having so much issues meeting the minimum of 250K when PS2 and WII easily cleared that mark ? Why don't you explain that for once ?

 

Destiny White PS4.  It will murder.  PS4 is cannibalizing itself and still winning the months.  White PS4  sold more on Amazon in June, July and August than Xbox.  White PS4 has been cannibalizing PS4 since E3.  All this other mindless banter is drivel. 

Can't remember if I brought it up in this thread or not, but that is very true.  Not only are the numbers slightly lower because high demand was able to be met earlier, therefore those sales weren't spread throughout the entire year, but 100Ks of people have been waiting for the Destiny bundle to pick up a PS4.  New color and highly anticipated game.  That's why September sales are going to be massive. 



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Sony HQ discussing the unbelievable underperforming sales of PS4 with Ono.



thismeintiel said:
fatslob-:O said:
thismeintiel said:

You and soundwave should really stop.  You're just making yourself look ridiculous.  You're shifting this way and that to downplay the PS4's success.  YOU made up some fake 250K that a console has to sell, not the industry.  NO ONE but you.  And here's a fact, the 360 couldn't pull off a consistent 250K+ in the US, either.  But guess what?  IT WON THE US!  Just stop while you're behind.

Yet the only reason why the xbox 360 won America was because Sony had initially screwed up with the PS3 making Microsoft invite themselves to a good chunk of the North American market and the fact that Nintendo made a fatal move by giving the WII lackluster software support in it's near end of it's life cycle.

Why is the PS4 the only one having so much issues meeting the minimum of 250K when PS2 and WII easily cleared that mark ? Why don't you explain that for once ?

FYI I'm not downplaying the PS4's success. Infact I am congratulating it while remaining critical but I don't know how soundwave feels on this matter ...

Why are you explaining to me why the 360 took US?  I thought the explaination for numbers was not allowed?  Or is that only when it doesn't help your argument?  Darn all these rules.  Of course, if you want a real answer, your 250K number means nothing.  It's just one you made up and found to fit your argument.  BTW, do you have the numbers that prove the PS2 and Wii always sold that much?  And what is your cut off period, cause the Wii started to somewhat poorly over much of the year, only to get huge boosts during the holiday season.  I also bet if you had the numbers for the NES, the SNES, and the PS1, neither of them were consistently over 250K.

Even if those two did sell over 250K for the first 2-3 years, there are reasons why.  The PS2 was the follow up to the successful PS1 and had no competition for over a year.  The Wii was a phenomenom that mostly sold because of the game it was packaged with, but began to rapidly drop YOY after 2-3 years.  The PS4 is not either of these.  However, it is still going to take this gen and by quite a lot.  It's sales pattern in the US will most likely mirror that of the 360.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the One and PS4 swapped positions/numbers that their predecessors held.  PS4 will take EU even more handidly than the PS3 did, since the One is basically dead there.  Japan will see a rise in sales once the games start hitting, but probably won't match last gen's numbers.  Though, China and some of the newer territories will make up for that.


Bah, ninja'd. xD Just to reinforce this point in agreement, would like to note that the Dreamcast was discontinued in March 2001. For those who don't know, the other sixth gen consoles, (i.e. the Gamecube and Xbox,) didn't release in North America until November 2001, meaning that, as far as sixth generation consoles in North America went, the PS2 had April 2001 til October 2001 entirely to itself. The added bonus of having essentially bitchslapped a competitor- the Dreamcast- into oblivion would no doubt have provided a substantial PR boost as well, as God only knows people tend to flock towards Winners.

So yeah, with the summer entirely to itself... how could it NOT have sold at least 250k? The total NPD this month alone is 420k, and while there will be some crossover, unless someone wants to claim that more than a small group of people bought two or three pricey pieces of hardware in a SINGLE month, (and did so consistently for all the summer months,) then it isn't hard to imagine why a console that has two direct competitors (one of whom is, in the U.S. at least, providing stiff opposition,) isn't selling as well as a console that had none.

If we're to accept 'Oh, the PS2 was only in Japan those first months, we HAVE to take that into consideration,' then fine. But if one doesn't also take into consideration that its vaunted first summer on the market was spent with absolutely no sixth generation competition whatsoever, then yes, one is just cherry picking the numbers and ignoring any facts that get in the way of their case. =P For people insisting on a frank and rational comparison of two generations, a really bad job is being done if one somehow completely misses, or deliberately ignores, this extremely important circumstance.



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BraLoD said:
Vita less than 6K? WOW, that's sad!

What?  It's currently the market leader...for Sony handhelds.  So all is gooooood!



So what do we have here? X1 160k is decent I guess, looks like the Madden bundle did some work. Wii U under 70k, expected, not much to say, the overtrackment is somewhere else in the world.

Then there seems to be a discussion going on about the PS4 underperforming because it did below 200k in a summer month in the US, right before the month in which the highly anticipated white PS4 bundle comes out and while the PS4 is clearly outrunning every other system before it outside the US and Japan, well keep having that discussion, if it's fun for you.



Zanten said:
thismeintiel said:

Why are you explaining to me why the 360 took US?  I thought the explaination for numbers was not allowed?  Or is that only when it doesn't help your argument?  Darn all these rules.  Of course, if you want a real answer, your 250K number means nothing.  It's just one you made up and found to fit your argument.  BTW, do you have the numbers that prove the PS2 and Wii always sold that much?  And what is your cut off period, cause the Wii started to somewhat poorly over much of the year, only to get huge boosts during the holiday season.  I also bet if you had the numbers for the NES, the SNES, and the PS1, neither of them were consistently over 250K.

Even if those two did sell over 250K for the first 2-3 years, there are reasons why.  The PS2 was the follow up to the successful PS1 and had no competition for over a year.  The Wii was a phenomenom that mostly sold because of the game it was packaged with, but began to rapidly drop YOY after 2-3 years.  The PS4 is not either of these.  However, it is still going to take this gen and by quite a lot.  It's sales pattern in the US will most likely mirror that of the 360.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the One and PS4 swapped positions/numbers that their predecessors held.  PS4 will take EU even more handidly than the PS3 did, since the One is basically dead there.  Japan will see a rise in sales once the games start hitting, but probably won't match last gen's numbers.  Though, China and some of the newer territories will make up for that.


Bah, ninja'd. xD Just to reinforce this point in agreement, would like to note that the Dreamcast was discontinued in March 2001. For those who don't know, the other sixth gen consoles, (i.e. the Gamecube and Xbox,) didn't release in North America until November 2001, meaning that, as far as sixth generation consoles in North America went, the PS2 had April 2001 til October 2001 entirely to itself. The added bonus of having essentially bitchslapped a competitor- the Dreamcast- into oblivion would no doubt have provided a substantial PR boost as well, as God only knows people tend to flock towards Winners.

So yeah, with the summer entirely to itself... how could it NOT have sold at least 250k? The total NPD this month alone is 420k, and while there will be some crossover, unless someone wants to claim that more than a small group of people bought two or three pricey pieces of hardware in a SINGLE month, (and did so consistently for all the summer months,) then it isn't hard to imagine why a console that has two direct competitors (one of whom is, in the U.S. at least, providing stiff opposition,) isn't selling as well as a console that had none.

If we're to accept 'Oh, the PS2 was only in Japan those first months, we HAVE to take that into consideration,' then fine. But if one doesn't also take into consideration that its vaunted first summer on the market was spent with absolutely no sixth generation competition whatsoever, then yes, one is just cherry picking the numbers and ignoring any facts that get in the way of their case. =P For people insisting on a frank and rational comparison of two generations, a really bad job is being done if one somehow completely misses, or deliberately ignores, this extremely important circumstance.

Good points.  You could also, once again, look at the 360.  It had no competition for a year, not even an early Dreamcast-like failure, yet it had months that were even worse than the PS4 is having, with two other consoles competing right out the gate.  Even with the lower months, however, the 360 won the US.  Playstation consoles have always showed that these gens are marathons, not sprints, even when they start in front.  It's just last gen they didn't have the best start, lol.