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taus90 on 12 September 2014
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Vena said:
ethomaz said:

So you are giving me 100% certain PS4 will sell below Wii in it first holiday after launch? Well it can happen and can be more likely than the opposite but this didn't make sure it will happen.

When happen then we can talk about how PS4 lacked behing Wii.

I'm showing facts proving with numbers them... you guys says it will underperforming because guesses that it will sell less than Wii.


I work with statistics and raw experimental data, I never give 100% unless its the latter where I have physical things to present. I give estimations, predictions, and formulae from which conclusions can be drawn and then verified experimentally.

You're not really proving anything at the moment other than the fact that the PS4 launched strong while the Wii performed more consistently... which is their point, actually. They are saying, very specifically, that the strong launch and subsequent inconsistent and sliding month-to-month sales (barring out outlier and Destiny outlier next month) are a very, very bad sign of a front, loaded console that is not actually doing as well as people think it is doing... This is literally impossible to deny as its very much in the numbers you posted.

Trajectories paint a good picture. Trajectories can also be wrong... but then normally that isn't the case because a trajectory exists for a reason.

Your own data is especially damning if you compare 2007/2014 only.

Neither does comparing two different platform, from two different generations (2007 vs 2014) , catered towards two different demographic (casual vs hardcore) with diferent buying habbits (online vs retail) and at a very contrasting price point ($250 vs $399) is a good trajectory to begin with, its literally like comparing Candy Crush sales to GTA5. Your assumption based on trajectories is very far sighted at best PS4 could be compared to 360 coz similar audience, similar price point. And also about Wii performing consistently than PS4 could be considered as Ice bucket challenge,  given how its sales have been in past 3 years. and also it helps when ur $250 console is launched besides a $599 consoles.