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Forums - Sales - November Update!!!! Under 3m - Predict: Xbox One will sell more in the US than WiiU will Worldwide

DerNebel on 21 August 2014
tbone51 said:

DerNebel said:

 
I mean people keep going on about Smash this, Smash that, but have you actually forgotten what MS has next holiday season? Halo, a franchise that quite simply is a lot bigger than Smash and is actually really exclusive. So what do you people, that say the X1 will end up third, actually think the X1 will do? 15-20 million? Cause the Wii U is sure as hell not on track to do more than 20-25, which might even be a pretty optimistic prediction.


Halo isnt alot bigger than SSB bro :)

First of all SSB is a fighter and for a fighter its by far and away the most popular up there with Tekken and Street Fighter (i say Mortal Kombat is a good 4th). Halo, a FPS that we all kno dominates every genre with EASE Is huge but saying Halo is bigger than SSB? C'mon now!

SSBB has the highest sales of Both franchises (though Halo 3 is a close 2nd with just a few Thousand behind it). Want to bet SSB 3DS will outsell Halo 5 WW Lifetime? 

Trust me both are very Huge in their own way but Saying Halo is alot bigger? Nahhhhh. Overall excluding Sales as well SSB is definitely more popular imo. 

 

Edit: OT Yes X1 has a good chance of outselling wiiu (US vs WW). So unfortunate for WiiU though :-/

You have to remember one thing here:

1 Smash game per Nintendo system vs 6 Halo games on the last Xbox

And the main Halos sold all over 9 million on the 360. I'm not trying to discredit Smash here I think it's a great franchise, but I highly doubt that Smash would sell nearly as much every iteration, if it had a release schedule like Halo. Still, yes you're right Smash is definitely a huge franchise as well.

Also I don't wanna bet on Smash 3DS outselling Halo 5, I would maybe bet on Smash 3DS outselling Smash Wii U, but I don't think many would take that bet.



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DerNebel on 21 August 2014
t3mporary_126 said:
DerNebel said:
Why are people so extremely qucik to jump the gun with these things? Give the Wii U a couple weeks of it possibly (I say possibly because the system being overtracked is still a very real scenario) outselling the X1 by a little and you suddenly get all those people being completely sure, that the X1 will end up last.

Do we need a reminder here about how the Wii U did in its actual first year? Hint: A lot worse than the X1 is doing right now. What makes people so sure that X1 will not get better sales next year?

I mean people keep going on about Smash this, Smash that, but have you actually forgotten what MS has next holiday season? Halo, a franchise that quite simply is a lot bigger than Smash and is actually really exclusive. So what do you people, that say the X1 will end up third, actually think the X1 will do? 15-20 million? Cause the Wii U is sure as hell not on track to do more than 20-25, which might even be a pretty optimistic prediction.

What in your mind is going to make Wii U sales pick up so much pace and what is going to stop the X1 from picking up pace so that the end result will be Wii U: 2nd, X1; 3rd?

I'm serious, explain that to me.

I agree. Xbox one should sell more than the Wii U  and the One does really well in North America. However, I think it's too soon to say the One's North American sales will outsell the Wii U worldwide's sale at the end of this generation when we haven't seen the One's sales this October through December. I may be overly cautious, but I think we can all agree how unpredictable video game console sales can be unless we analyze them in hindsight.

Yes, the X1 US > Wii U WW thing might be a little too early to tell, but how fun is making a prediction, when everyone already knows it's going to happen anyway? ;)



gingergaymer on 21 August 2014
DerNebel said:
Oh and btw yes, the Wii U has already been adjusted down by about 100k I think, but Seece's point still stands, Vgchartz has the Wii U at 6.54 million units at June 28th, by June 30th Nintendo had shipped 6.67 million units, meaning that at the sales rate Vgchartz is suggesting there were barely 2 weeks of stock at retailers at the end of June.

And remember, according to Vgchartz the Wii U had been selling at above 60k for 5 weeks at the end of June, so it would be reasonable to assume that retailers would start ordering more at that point.

So I agree with Seece, the Wii U being overtracked is more likely than some people would like to admit.


While you may be right, isn't it also plausible that retailers were slow to start ordering more fearing that the trend wouldn't continue and they'd be stuck with excess Wii U's again? I know when I go to some local stores their stocks of Wii U games are terrible, so despite Wii U on the rise and selling decent software numbers many retailers are not ordering that many copies of games...

I think retailer confidence of the Wii U is low and slowly improving. 

If the Wii U is still undertracked, I don't think it is by much to be honest. 



tbone51 on 21 August 2014
DerNebel said:
tbone51 said:

DerNebel said:

You have to remember one thing here:

1 Smash game per Nintendo system vs 6 Halo games on the last Xbox

And the main Halos sold all over 9 million on the 360. I'm not trying to discredit Smash here I think it's a great franchise, but I highly doubt that Smash would sell nearly as much every iteration, if it had a release schedule like Halo. Still, yes you're right Smash is definitely a huge franchise as well.

Also I don't wanna bet on Smash 3DS outselling Halo 5, I would maybe bet on Smash 3DS outselling Smash Wii U, but I don't think many would take that bet.

Well we both agree both are huge franchises, but i dont think only sales should be put together to say something is bigger. Dont get me wrong, Sales is a huge factor in it, but its not everything.

Examples: Mario is bigger than Pokemon (excluding MK) despite pokemon outselling Mario in most of each generation.

Some franchises dont outsell another or close to it but still can be more popular/bigger overall. Also like i said before, SSB is a fighter and Halo is a shooter. SSB is by far the most popular and biggest Fighter while Halo isnt in its genre (But i think its #1 as a exclusive right?).

Btw i do get wat you meant with Halo multiple games vs SSB just one (per generation), but Nintendo games usually only have one entry per generation on HH/Console (with a few exceptions of Kirby+Pokemon). You can also argue Uncharted+Little Big Planet is bigger than SSB with that argument



hsrob on 21 August 2014

Look, it's certainly possible, maybe even likely, but for now XB1 is a system that has had a good launch and has failed to do much since then. In this regard it's trajectory is not vastly different from the WiiU's, although with higher numbers.

The question becomes can it significantly turn its fortunes around before it starts to become undesirable to the average consumer (as the WiiU has)

Until that turnaround occurs, each supposed driver for XB1 sales is simply an unfulfilled hope. Look what happened to many of the WiiU's first year "big games". Single games can do big things when the overall value proposition the console is high, but not when it isn't. Just look at NSMB WiiU versus it's predecessor as an example. For XB right now we are looking at an assumed turnaround based on historical trends which as often as not in this industry  lead us astray.

The additional problem XB1 faces is that it is going toe to toe with PS4, the further the PS4 pulls ahead, the less appealing XB1 is likely to be to consumers with  no particular allegiance i.e. most.

Again the scenario the OP is certainly possible, maybe even likely, but there's enough uncertainty to prevent it from being a foregone conclusion just yet.



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t3mporary_126 on 21 August 2014
DerNebel said:

Yes, the X1 US > Wii U WW thing might be a little too early to tell, but how fun is making a prediction, when everyone already knows it's going to happen anyway? ;)


Very true. This prediction will be interesting to watch. 



overman1 on 21 August 2014
Fusioncode said:
WebMasterFlex said:
You are talking Globally In The US ?

Alright someone has to explain this "globally in the US" joke to me. 

The Drill...

Oh ma Drill...



PigPen on 21 August 2014
DerNebel said:
t3mporary_126 said:
DerNebel said:
Why are people so extremely qucik to jump the gun with these things? Give the Wii U a couple weeks of it possibly (I say possibly because the system being overtracked is still a very real scenario) outselling the X1 by a little and you suddenly get all those people being completely sure, that the X1 will end up last.

Do we need a reminder here about how the Wii U did in its actual first year? Hint: A lot worse than the X1 is doing right now. What makes people so sure that X1 will not get better sales next year?

I mean people keep going on about Smash this, Smash that, but have you actually forgotten what MS has next holiday season? Halo, a franchise that quite simply is a lot bigger than Smash and is actually really exclusive. So what do you people, that say the X1 will end up third, actually think the X1 will do? 15-20 million? Cause the Wii U is sure as hell not on track to do more than 20-25, which might even be a pretty optimistic prediction.

What in your mind is going to make Wii U sales pick up so much pace and what is going to stop the X1 from picking up pace so that the end result will be Wii U: 2nd, X1; 3rd?

I'm serious, explain that to me.

I agree. Xbox one should sell more than the Wii U  and the One does really well in North America. However, I think it's too soon to say the One's North American sales will outsell the Wii U worldwide's sale at the end of this generation when we haven't seen the One's sales this October through December. I may be overly cautious, but I think we can all agree how unpredictable video game console sales can be unless we analyze them in hindsight.

Yes, the X1 US > Wii U WW thing might be a little too early to tell, but how fun is making a prediction, when everyone already knows it's going to happen anyway? ;)

Everyone < Speak for self

In no shape or form do I agree with that.



Playstation_prophet on 21 August 2014

It's looks like WiiU has begun to outsell Xbox One consistently. It's gonna close for 2nd place.



vkaraujo on 21 August 2014

It is possible, but it is not set in stone.

1) The PR was worst for XBO than it was for PS3. It will be harder to recover consumer trust and with each week the word of mouth may in fact increase PS4 advantage.

2) The PS3 was more powerfull, so it could hold on that to make a come back. XBO is actually weaker. You may think this means little, but this is 2014, people google with their smartphones before putting $400 on the table

3) Like you said yourself, what really matters is price, exclusives and friends. PS4 has all of them, so it can very much trounce XBO in US too. Also, PS3 managed to get to 20M in US because of these better exclusives.

Things can go both ways, even if the Wii U donesn't make a come back.