Sales wise, huge sales contribution from developing markets such as China and India should not be expected, people will wait for a cheaper model/games. As mentioned in my previous post its too expensive.
Japan/ South Korea other SE Asian countries, Eastern Europe might be a different proposition, dont know how the markets there work
Everything about the post is ridiculous, from using the 360 Japan Launch to predict the Xbox One Launch, to saying the Wii U will be back to 40K next year.....somehow. But in a funny way.
AZWification said:
Tier 1 countries are the most important countries like the USA, the UK, Germany, France, etc... while Tier 2 countries are less important countries like Argentina, India, the Netherlands, etc.. |
Okay, I was thinking it was GDP per capita or something (IE how much money people have) that separated it.
OT: the Norwegian retailers already import XBOs and you pay the exact same price as if you pre-order one for the official launch. The thing is most of these countries are either really small, or Xbox has basically no presence there, or both, so they won't matter much. @ the guy who said 1 million, it did 1 million in the original launch week, how on earth would it beat that now?
I would be surprised to see such numbers in Japan. The X1 much like the PS4 is a western centric console. We have seen how Japanese have been slow to adopt PS4 without Japanese titles to move them. What will the X1 offer in 2014 for them? Sony at least had three generations to show they could deliver. Microsoft delivered for half of one of their two generations there and sales have shown that. Right now the X1 feels like the original Xbox there so I would expect sales parallel.
That launch might be possible, I say 150k max but who knows. But that 15-20k a week increase from countrys that first dont care for the xbox brand, second have had it in grey markets forever and third have had the ps4 already so why would they get an x1? I think the baseline won increase more than 10k.
China wont do anything. Like I said before, in china for $600 they can build a gaming pc wich is much better than an x1 and has games they actually want to play and if they want to play x1 games they can since x1 is loosing a lot of exclusives to pc due to its under performing. And I think the lowest launch price is $650 in china I think.
Wii u under 40k, now your just delusional. And what realy gave it away that your just joking is that ps4 will drop to 110k, With that we know its not a serious threat.
It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.
| Teeqoz said:
OT: the Norwegian retailers already import XBOs and you pay the exact same price as if you pre-order one for the official launch. The thing is most of these countries are either really small, or Xbox has basically no presence there, or both, so they won't matter much. @ the guy who said 1 million, it did 1 million in the original launch week, how on earth would it beat that now? |
Here's the list of the Tier 2 countries if you are interested: Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, India, Israel, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and UAE! 
---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---
| toastboy44562 said: The Xbox One will be lsaunching in 33 countries this September. Most people think it will not boost sales because it can be found those countries already, that idea certainly is not true. The Xbox One is more expensive in those countries than it otherwise would be because of importing costs. People in those countries would have to buy games from another country and possibly in a language they do not understand. People that bought the console before it was released in their country would not be able to play online either. Anyone who says the Xbox One will not get a boost from the extra 33 countries this September is just lying. How much will the Tier 2 countries help Xbox One? Some people say the Xbox One did not release in those countries because of low 360 sales however the 360 most likely did 500k-1 million+ in every single one of them. The Xbox 360 launched 50k units in Japan week one. Lets assume the Xbox One will do a little less since PS4 is struggling. Remember the 360 was far more popular than the Original Xbox. In China, the Xbox One will do decent numbers. It has no competition and it working in collaboration with Chinese companies. Lets assume the Xbox One will do 30k week one in that country. Even if the Xbox One sold 4k -5k week one in all the rest of the countries (conservative number) that means there will be about 190k-200k boost for the Xbox One week one. China - 30k Japan - 40k 30 countries - 120k Total launch sales- 190k
New baseline Let's assume from now on the Xbox One will sell 500 units a week after than in every new country launched (it will probably be far more than that but I will be conservative). The baseline will have increased by 15k conservatively (most likely will increase about 20k). That would mean on any given week in the summer the Xbox One should be able to do 70k-80k. This number will likely increase as the price comes down and more software is released. Of course there are more countries to be released in after the tier 2 countries but let's not worry about them.
2015 Basline predictions 90k baseline weekly throughtout of all of 2015 for the Xbox One. PS4 will continue to outsell it but by a smaller margin, 110k weekly, and Wii U sales will dip down to 40k a week since Nintendo's two biggest IPs came out this year. |
PS4 baseline 110K weekly next year? XB1 200K boost when tier 2 release?
im sorry i just dont believe in any of this espeacially when your track record is getting worse and worse
400k XB1 NPD march did 300k
Xbox One to Beat PS4 Ever NPD From March On never came close
200k Xb1 WW Sales for June 14 did 65k
Play Me
| toastboy44562 said: The Xbox One will be lsaunching in 33 countries this September. Most people think it will not boost sales because it can be found those countries already, that idea certainly is not true. The Xbox One is more expensive in those countries than it otherwise would be because of importing costs. People in those countries would have to buy games from another country and possibly in a language they do not understand. People that bought the console before it was released in their country would not be able to play online either. Anyone who says the Xbox One will not get a boost from the extra 33 countries this September is just lying. How much will the Tier 2 countries help Xbox One? Some people say the Xbox One did not release in those countries because of low 360 sales however the 360 most likely did 500k-1 million+ in every single one of them. The Xbox 360 launched 50k units in Japan week one. Lets assume the Xbox One will do a little less since PS4 is struggling. Remember the 360 was far more popular than the Original Xbox. In China, the Xbox One will do decent numbers. It has no competition and it working in collaboration with Chinese companies. Lets assume the Xbox One will do 30k week one in that country. Even if the Xbox One sold 4k -5k week one in all the rest of the countries (conservative number) that means there will be about 190k-200k boost for the Xbox One week one. China - 30k Japan - 40k 30 countries - 120k Total launch sales- 190k
New baseline Let's assume from now on the Xbox One will sell 500 units a week after than in every new country launched (it will probably be far more than that but I will be conservative). The baseline will have increased by 15k conservatively (most likely will increase about 20k). That would mean on any given week in the summer the Xbox One should be able to do 70k-80k. This number will likely increase as the price comes down and more software is released. Of course there are more countries to be released in after the tier 2 countries but let's not worry about them.
2015 Basline predictions 90k baseline weekly throughtout of all of 2015 for the Xbox One. PS4 will continue to outsell it but by a smaller margin, 110k weekly, and Wii U sales will dip down to 40k a week since Nintendo's two biggest IPs came out this year. |
The problem with your assumptions above is that they are not based on any statistical fact.
According to the VGChartz statistics.
1) All countries that XB1 has been released makes up around 88% of the global console sales.
2) Historically the bulk of xbox sales has come from the so called tier 1 countries, way more so than playstation. So a missed 12% (compared to the other 88%) is the best possible scenario and VERY OPTIMISTIC for XB1. You should expect a maximum of 10% permanent boost.
3) Xbox market share has been dimishing (even more so due to network effects, like a rolling snowball). The larger market share you begin with (if over 50%), even larger it gets over time. In all other regions, Xbox market share is already 1/3 of Playstation, and this generation it will likely drop below 1/5 of PS.
So, yes, there should be some INITIAL boost, and it will soon (almost) cease to exist with a possibly 5-10% permanent boost over the already much lower XB1 sales. Just keep this in mind, Xbox does not have the brand loyalty that Sony or Nintendo has in any of those regions. There is a reason why MS releases them so late in there.
Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%
Why launch the console in countries that will not buy at least 10k units? Weird...
My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.
AZWification said:
Here's the list of the Tier 2 countries if you are interested: Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, India, Israel, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and UAE! |
Thanks! I just sound it Odd that Norway was considered a tier two country, since we have twice the GDP per capita compared to US, but then you pointed out it was just how important the market is.
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