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Forums - Microsoft - When will XB1 fall behind XB360 in LT sales?

 

When?

By the end of September. 30 15.23%
 
By the end of October. 13 6.60%
 
By the end of November. 13 6.60%
 
By the end of December. 24 12.18%
 
By the end of January. 15 7.61%
 
By the end of Q1 2014. 11 5.58%
 
By the end of Q2 2014. 17 8.63%
 
By the end of Q3 2014. 6 3.05%
 
Some time after Q3 2014. 25 12.69%
 
Nevaaaaaaaaaa!!! 43 21.83%
 
Total:197
Dark_Lord_2008 on 06 August 2014

First 4 years sales of XBO can be close to or slightly ahead of X360.
X360 surprisingly sold well in its 5th and 6th years in 2010 and 2011.
This generation will be shorter and after 2017 its sales should fall behind the X360 ltd sales.
No way will XBO sell well in its 5th and 6th years. X360 is closing in on its 9th anniversary, XBO is closing in on its 1st anniversary. 8 years between the launches of X360 and XBO.



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eva01beserk on 06 August 2014
Shadow1980 said:

It's going to be close, but I think globally the XBO will fall behind in launch-aligned LTD sales sometime in the first half of next year. The only reason it isn't sooner is because of the XBO's strong launch, as the XBO's 2014 will likely be around 1.5 million less than VGC's estimate for the 360's 2006. As for the U.S., I think it'll take a lot longer. If my projections pan out, the 360 will still be behind by about 500k units. However, I think there's a very good chance that both the XBO and PS4 get big price cuts next year (probably to $300), which should boost sales a large amount, and next year will likely be both system's peaks. If so, then it may take several years for the XBO to fall behind. We do have to remember that annual sales growth of the 360 was relatively flat in the U.S. through 2009 and in Europe through 2007. Globally, though, the XBO should continue to do sufficiently poor outside of Anglosphere countries that it slowly falls behind in 2015, with the gap widening even more quickly in 2016.

Here's my rough LTD projections for the U.S. for the XBO (margins of error expected to be high for 2015 and increasing each subsequent year) compared to NPD actuals for the 360:

Now here's global XBO projections (which assume that the U.S. represents two-thirds of all annual sales), compared to VGC estimates for the 360:

Note that I don't project XBO sales past 2018 because we'd be getting close to the ninth-gen launch, which complicates things.

Only thing is that this time around for the x1 the U.S will be at least 80% of sales. So asuming around 26-28m by 2018.



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NiKKoM on 06 August 2014
Ninsect said:

You said European Tier 2 countries. When looking at that list I can see a 100k boost for the whole month due to something like 40-50k coming from Japan and some Asian/S-American countries being included.

200k boost first week is madness. You're setting yourself up for disappointment. People have been able to buy the system almost everywhere, in local stores or imported.

i assure you I won't be dissappointed.. You should know how little I care about the console war.. ;)
Anyway I do think that the Fifa 15 and Forza 5 bundle is a sexy one, so it has a chance to do some decent numbers.. why are people acting like 200.000 is a lot? thats even less then what the ps3 slim did..



 

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AnthonyW86 on 06 August 2014

People thinking September or October have no business making predictions. Even if the XOne didn't sell one unit the x360 wouldn't catch up and it only has to sell about 30k/40k a week to stay ahead till the end of october.



kitler53 on 06 August 2014
vivster said:
Some time next year. Certainly not before December.


in order to say ahead of 360 xbone needs to sell about 3.6M the rest of this year.  with the availible data and applying an "average" or "typcial" holiday sales boost should mean xbone sells about 3.8M just over the holidays.  add in august and i have to agree,..  it seems almost impossible for streams to cross this year.

my maths say:  8.89M vs the 360's 7.98M at the end of eachs second holiday.



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pitzy272 on 06 August 2014
NiKKoM said:
pitzy272 said:
Your poll is off for the record. Should be Q1, Q2, etc 2015; not 2014.

Makes you wonder who voted for Q1 and Q2 2014...


Haha I voted for Q2 2014 bc I knew what he meant. 



wary-wallaroo on 06 August 2014

It's bound to happen. Even if it recovers in NA (which I doubt), it's dead WW, so it's only a matter of how much. I'd say 1 more year.



episteme on 06 August 2014

I'd say Q2 2015 or later. Come on, 2014 would mean horrible holiday sales.



Ninsect on 06 August 2014
NiKKoM said:
Ninsect said:

You said European Tier 2 countries. When looking at that list I can see a 100k boost for the whole month due to something like 40-50k coming from Japan and some Asian/S-American countries being included.

200k boost first week is madness. You're setting yourself up for disappointment. People have been able to buy the system almost everywhere, in local stores or imported.

i assure you I won't be dissappointed.. You should know how little I care about the console war.. ;)
Anyway I do think that the Fifa 15 and Forza 5 bundle is a sexy one, so it has a chance to do some decent numbers.. why are people acting like 200.000 is a lot? thats even less then what the ps3 slim did..

Is that supposed to set the bar low or something? PS3 actually had a presence in Europe. One does not, and will not, with the monster PS4 competing against it. One is only launching in a few minor markets in September. Markets that have always been pretty bad for MS, and will now be even worse due to launching late and having the PS4 already dominant there.



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prinz_valium on 06 August 2014
Ninsect said:
NiKKoM said:
Ninsect said:
NiKKoM said:
It still should have a decent boost in september when it releases in European Tier 2 countries. so I don't think it will fall behind any time soon

20k extra in Europe for September seems reasonable to me, given the baseline sales there being terrible for it. I don't see it changing much.

Are you missing a zero? 20.000? or did you mean per week?
even the 360 had a first week of ~50.000 in japan..  looking at the Tier 2 countries there should be at least a 200.000  boost first week
We in europe get a Fifa 15 and Forza 5 bundle..

• Argentina
• Belgium
• Chile
• Colombia
• Czech Republic
• Denmark
• Finland
• Greece
• Hungary
• India
• Israel
• Japan
• Korea
• Netherlands
• Norway
• Poland
• Portugal
• Russia
• Saudi Arabia
• Singapore
• Slovakia
• South Africa
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• Turkey
• UAE

. People have been able to buy the system almost everywhere, in local stores or imported.

this never get old...

people have been able to buy the system almost everywhere in the local stores in tier 1 countries.

why do they not already bought the system. why the hell do some people buy consoles later and not right know.

its even more easy for them. they dont even need to import like all the other, who can already buy theire console in tier 2 countries.

 

its confirmed. zero xbox one will be sold in europe tier 2 countries, because they already can buys consoles,they just dont and will neither if they can buy offical consoles.

be ready for a 300k - 500k bump.  dont forget china.

ahh nevermind. wont sell any consoles there. china is ps4 land and everyone can already buy an xbox one