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Forums - Microsoft - When will XB1 fall behind XB360 in LT sales?

 

When?

By the end of September. 30 15.23%
 
By the end of October. 13 6.60%
 
By the end of November. 13 6.60%
 
By the end of December. 24 12.18%
 
By the end of January. 15 7.61%
 
By the end of Q1 2014. 11 5.58%
 
By the end of Q2 2014. 17 8.63%
 
By the end of Q3 2014. 6 3.05%
 
Some time after Q3 2014. 25 12.69%
 
Nevaaaaaaaaaa!!! 43 21.83%
 
Total:197
MoHasanie said:
Ninsect said:

I doubt it. They handled it well enough by giving replacements for free.

I dunno. That really helped but the poor reliabilty of the console would have turned many people away from buying the console.

I think that would have been offset by the double dipping of people that through circumstances ,timing etc bought a replacement themselves .
another factor is by the time the 360 hit it's stride with kenetic's release  the rrod was over.



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Shadow1980 said:

It's going to be close, but I think globally the XBO will fall behind in launch-aligned LTD sales sometime in the first half of next year. The only reason it isn't sooner is because of the XBO's strong launch, as the XBO's 2014 will likely be around 1.5 million less than VGC's estimate for the 360's 2006. As for the U.S., I think it'll take a lot longer. If my projections pan out, the 360 will still be behind by about 500k units. However, I think there's a very good chance that both the XBO and PS4 get big price cuts next year (probably to $300), which should boost sales a large amount, and next year will likely be both system's peaks. If so, then it may take several years for the XBO to fall behind. We do have to remember that annual sales growth of the 360 was relatively flat in the U.S. through 2009 and in Europe through 2007. Globally, though, the XBO should continue to do sufficiently poor outside of Anglosphere countries that it slowly falls behind in 2015, with the gap widening even more quickly in 2016.

Here's my rough LTD projections for the U.S. for the XBO (margins of error expected to be high for 2015 and increasing each subsequent year) compared to NPD actuals for the 360:

Now here's global XBO projections (which assume that the U.S. represents two-thirds of all annual sales), compared to VGC estimates for the 360:

Note that I don't project XBO sales past 2018 because we'd be getting close to the ninth-gen launch, which complicates things.

The X1's projection line for worldwide is scarily low. To think that the X1 will possibly do less than half of the performance of its predecessor...



mjk45 said:
MoHasanie said:
Ninsect said:

I doubt it. They handled it well enough by giving replacements for free.

I dunno. That really helped but the poor reliabilty of the console would have turned many people away from buying the console.

I think that would have been offset by the double dipping of people that through circumstances ,timing etc bought a replacement themselves .

Maybe. You always here about people saying they bought 3 or 4 360s. I also remember they announced around 45m active Xbox Live accounts, back when there was 75m units sold. When you think about it like that, perhaps MS did sort of benefit from RROD. 



    

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Ninsect said:
prinz_valium said:
Ninsect said:

100k in September
*45k in Japan
*55k in the rest of the countries. They are all small markets. Worse, they are small markets that largely don't care about Xbox.

The only one I'm not sure about is Japan. It might have a better launch there like you say but it will drop off. And then again, it might do worse than I think due to MS failing for 2 generations in Japan.


=2,1k launch sales as average for 26 tier 2 countries

including china, russia, korea, poland, turkey, netherland, sweden, switzerland, belgium, argentina

thats not small markets

 


Averages mean nothing. There are some tiny markets there that will lower it a lot.

ofc. and bigger ones that will increase it a lot.

china, russia, korea, netherlands and sweden will each sell over 2,1k launch week



prinz_valium said:
Ninsect said:

Averages mean nothing. There are some tiny markets there that will lower it a lot.

ofc. and bigger ones that will increase it a lot.

china, russia, korea, netherlands and sweden will each sell over 2,1k launch week

You really don't know the nature of these markets, do you? China and Korea are PC countries and China especially likes MMOs. Also, the X1 is already being sold in the other countries you've mentioned via imports/grey market. Whoever wanted an X1 over there already got one. Also, the PS4 will have been out in those countries for nearly a year and thus, have already established a strong reputation and mindshare among those markets. The consumers won't sponaneously change their mind and grab an X1 because that's not how consumers think.



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I don't think it will, It will launch in China, Europe, Japan and many places. Not only that XBox has always been a Holiday type device.



Aura7541 said:
prinz_valium said:
Ninsect said:

Averages mean nothing. There are some tiny markets there that will lower it a lot.

ofc. and bigger ones that will increase it a lot.

china, russia, korea, netherlands and sweden will each sell over 2,1k launch week

You really don't know the nature of these markets, do you? China and Korea are PC countries and China especially likes MMOs. Also, the X1 is already being sold in the other countries you've mentioned via imports/grey market. Whoever wanted an X1 over there already got one. Also, the PS4 will have been out in those countries for nearly a year and thus, have already established a strong reputation and mindshare among those markets. The consumers won't sponaneously change their mind and grab an X1 because that's not how consumers think.


ofc they are. but that doesnt matter, that they will buy a fucking low amount of 3k or even a hell much of 5k consoles for launch.

what are we talking about here? do u guys think ms or sony  would even release in this countries if they cant sell 5000 consoles?

 

im not talking about 5k weekly sales. 5k frontloaded preordered frist week sales.

i just hear every time only the same bullshit.

already available. small markets. no xbox only ps appeal.

 

 

maybe im just the only idiot who does not see that the xbox one will sell a maxium of 900 units for launch in china, korea, russia, the netherlands, sweden, and all the other tier 2 countries.

including the 30k japan launch sales we will see just a 50k xbox one bump form tier 2 in september

 

jesus. i have to leave this thread...



If it happens, not until sometime next year



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cpg716 said:
StarMissle said:
endimion said:
it won't I think it will either go up and down all the time or if handled right it will go up this Holiday and keep the momentum.... but I doubt it will go under 360... I even doubt it will keep widening with the PS4 a that rate come next year.... especially the more they listen to Phil Spencer and the customers

 

They never listened to customers.....they would have kept DRM and everything else if sales were good, they had no choice as sales were horrid. Sony did it right right from Day 1, ms switching gears only due to poor sales isn;t going to change anything.


You seemd to be confused here. You do realize that the Xbox One was NEVER on sale with the "DRM" and the "everything" else you seem to think they dropped after sales were "horrid". The only change sinse release is the offering a Kinect-less bundle. Even there.. both are still for sale..   

Sales had no bearing on the removal of all the "DRM" or digital based plans. Customer reaction did. Which was changed MONTHS before the Xbox One release.. over 4 months to be exact.

Microsoft has been listening to customers, and Phil Spencer has been a big reason for this. They are adding new features and changing things EVERY SINGLE month based on DIRECT CUSTOMER FEEDBACK. 

ANd last... Sales were not "horrid" The Xbox One is still ahead of X360 at this point in the release. Sales were LOW compared to the PS4. But one could have said why didn't the PS3 and X360 make massive changes when the Wii was outselling both of the by a HUGE margin. It's not always about chasing your competitor. Microsoft's only comparison for their success is the X360 sales, which outsold the OG Xbox. 

Wrong, sales are bad compared to the 360 as well. The x1 only has had a great launch, but monthly it has sold less than the 360 did. At the same point in time the 360 is catching up with it, and its calculated that by this year the 360 will pass it in sales. A great launch alone is not enough, its doing terrible, its the reason for the titanfall+year of live-$50 dollar bundle, the reason for the removal of kicknect the reason for the $75 credit to existing 360 owners to upgrade and all this things have not worked like MS hoped and is still selling really bad.



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prinz_valium said:


ofc they are. but that doesnt matter, that they will buy a fucking low amount of 3k or even a hell much of 5k consoles for launch.

what are we talking about here? do u guys think ms or sony  would even release in this countries if they cant sell 5000 consoles?

 

im not talking about 5k weekly sales. 5k frontloaded preordered frist week sales.

i just hear every time only the same bullshit.

already available. small markets. no xbox only ps appeal.

 

 

maybe im just the only idiot who does not see that the xbox one will sell a maxium of 900 units for launch in china, korea, russia, the netherlands, sweden, and all the other tier 2 countries.

including the 30k japan launch sales we will see just a 50k xbox one bump form tier 2 in september

 

jesus. i have to leave this thread...

Again you are making up your own low numbers. Not helping yourself, bud.



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