| Shadow1980 said: It's going to be close, but I think globally the XBO will fall behind in launch-aligned LTD sales sometime in the first half of next year. The only reason it isn't sooner is because of the XBO's strong launch, as the XBO's 2014 will likely be around 1.5 million less than VGC's estimate for the 360's 2006. As for the U.S., I think it'll take a lot longer. If my projections pan out, the 360 will still be behind by about 500k units. However, I think there's a very good chance that both the XBO and PS4 get big price cuts next year (probably to $300), which should boost sales a large amount, and next year will likely be both system's peaks. If so, then it may take several years for the XBO to fall behind. We do have to remember that annual sales growth of the 360 was relatively flat in the U.S. through 2009 and in Europe through 2007. Globally, though, the XBO should continue to do sufficiently poor outside of Anglosphere countries that it slowly falls behind in 2015, with the gap widening even more quickly in 2016. Now here's global XBO projections (which assume that the U.S. represents two-thirds of all annual sales), compared to VGC estimates for the 360:
Note that I don't project XBO sales past 2018 because we'd be getting close to the ninth-gen launch, which complicates things. |
Only thing is that this time around for the x1 the U.S will be at least 80% of sales. So asuming around 26-28m by 2018.
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