The DS was always selling at $129 while the 3DS has been at $170. So I'm curious to see the 3DS with a price cut plus a lot more wanted titles getting release around its price cut.
3 years at $170 and I see why you would think 60 million, if the price would stay the same. But take into account when it finally hits somewhere from $129 to $99 this Q4, as well as 3DS XL hitting $149 this Q4.
The price isn't an issue anymore ... Nintendo initially screwed up with their pricing which hurt them in the long run much like what Sony did with their PS3. What in gods name was Nintendo thinking by putting a $250 price tag on their handheld ?
What the 3DS needs most are compelling software and Nintendo has run out of that ammunition to be able to sustain the 3DS's legs.
Tell me what ace up in their sleeve does Nintendo have ...
Besides a batch of new IPs.
King of Pirates will definitely be an ace up their sleeve. It's a trilogy, and it will have at least as much marketing & branding & advertising as Skylander's, but as a 3DS exclusive and a global release, which should add at least several million new 3DS owners all on its own.
Smash Bros. Four 3DS will add several million more.
Pokémon 7th Gen will definitely sell 3DS SKUs.
YuGiOh 3D will defintiely sell at least several million more.
Out of all the new IPs I haven't mention specifically in this reply yet, some of them will be killer apps, but their all X factors, so it's the waiting game for them.
Fantasy Life should sell a lot of 3DS systems, and maybe become a killer app.
I guess there are too many variables to say either which way about the 3DS right now, no matter who we are.
Plus there are definitely people holding out on buying a 3DS for 1 reason or another, and with all the games coming out in the West in Q4 2014 & 2015 & 2016, plus price cuts, I can see the 3DS doing 100 million by 2018.
But I don't know what the Japanese will get for the 3DS in 2016, if anything.
Too many variables for anyone too say, plus Nintendo only mentions games coming out within the next 6 to 12 months on the 3DS & Wi U, so that doesn't help nail any predictions down.
There are too many secrets with future software of Nintendo Systems. At least PlayStation & Xbox let's you know things like 2 years in advance,