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Forums - Sales Discussion - I was wrong: Wii U will sell < GC

Yes and no.

Wii U will sell less than GC in the same time, but since Wii U could have a longer life, it could sell more



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

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binary solo said:
Jay70sgamer said:
binary solo said:
KLXVER said:
The WiiU will sell more. The industry has become way bigger than it was in the GC era...

No it hasn't. In fact I predict that this generation will have similar sales to the 6th gen, and perhaps less.

Gaming has gotten much bigger, thanks to mobile phones and Facebook type games. But home consoles peaked in the 7th generation, largely thanks to the one generation wonders of the Nintendo blue ocean. That blue ocean has evaporated, as we can see with the pathetic Wii U sales. PS3+X360 < PS2+Xb. PS4 is shaping up to have similar sales to PS3 (only in less time) and Xb one is shaping up to have a lot less sales than X360. If Wii U was to some how miraculously reach 30 million in sales the 8th gen will still fall far short of the 7th gen, and unless MS some how performs a miracle with Xb one the 8th gen will fall well short of the 6th.

The 6th gen moved 200 million consoles. I think the 8th gen won't get above 180 million.

As to the prediction. 20 million seems to be as high as Wii U seems likely to go, and it may fall short. However all bets should be held until we see Wii U at $200. When it hits that price sales may pick up a lot. $200 might do for Wii U what $299 did for PS3. Well maybe not quite PS3 numbers, but in a relative sense Wii U might get a similar % boost sales long term. But perhaps by the time Wii U gets to $200 the market will have laregly forgotten it, which is the danger of not having any kind of momentum behind it.

Nintendo is already selling the wii u for 200 dollars refurbished ........hype only sells a console for so long ...software is what moves hardware and nintendo has a lot of appealing software coming out in the next 18 months ......I think all home consoles are not gonna reach no more than 65-70 million in sales... no hundred million consoles sold this generation for none of the big 3   .....I think this generation isn't gonna be longer than last generation of 8 years ...just my opinion ..and to answer the question I think nintendo wii u will sell more than the GameCube 

Really? Appealing to whom? And more appealing than what's already come out for Wii U. We already have the 2D Mario, and the 3D Mario, and the Mario Kart, and the Donkey Kong, and the Luigi. That suite of games should have already pushed Wii U well past 10 million units, what makes you think all the appealing Nintendo games coming out in the next 18 months will have any greater effect than the games that came out in Wii U's first 18 months? Software sells hardware no doubt, but Nintendo's software does not appeal to a big enough audience, and this is amply demonstrated by the fact that Nintendo released many brilliant games on GC but it still sold poorly. And Nintendo is more or less repeating the suite of games that were the top sellers on GC, and yet people are expecting a different result? The old skool Nintendo franchises were not what sold Wii, it was the Wii Fits, and the Wii Sports, and the Wii Plays that sold the Wii. The old Nintendo franchises merely benefitted immensly from that hugely expanded install base. SMG launched when Wii was already at 14 million. SSBB launched when Wii was over 20 million. MK Wii launched when Wii was over 24 million. NSMB Wii launched when Wii was over 56 million.

For all that you wrote ...I have a simple answer mario kart 8..... fastest selling mario kart game ever on any nintendo console .......2 million in less than a month on a user base of 6.17 million and the wii u mario kart bundle is sold out in all the major cities and stores on the east coast look it up (gamestop,target,best buy) so your notion that appealing software doesn't move hardware or that it won't move hardware or hasn't is very flawed lol and also wii u didn't appeal  to most people was because there was not much software and no advertising  the first 9 months to 12 months now that issue is resolved it's now a lot of software available and a lot of people were waiting for mario kart 8 ...now the system is more appealing and will continue to be more appealing in which software sells hardware ....



Jay70sgamer said:
binary solo said:

Really? Appealing to whom? And more appealing than what's already come out for Wii U. We already have the 2D Mario, and the 3D Mario, and the Mario Kart, and the Donkey Kong, and the Luigi. That suite of games should have already pushed Wii U well past 10 million units, what makes you think all the appealing Nintendo games coming out in the next 18 months will have any greater effect than the games that came out in Wii U's first 18 months? Software sells hardware no doubt, but Nintendo's software does not appeal to a big enough audience, and this is amply demonstrated by the fact that Nintendo released many brilliant games on GC but it still sold poorly. And Nintendo is more or less repeating the suite of games that were the top sellers on GC, and yet people are expecting a different result? The old skool Nintendo franchises were not what sold Wii, it was the Wii Fits, and the Wii Sports, and the Wii Plays that sold the Wii. The old Nintendo franchises merely benefitted immensly from that hugely expanded install base. SMG launched when Wii was already at 14 million. SSBB launched when Wii was over 20 million. MK Wii launched when Wii was over 24 million. NSMB Wii launched when Wii was over 56 million.

For all that you wrote ...I have a simple answer mario kart 8..... fastest selling mario kart game ever on any nintendo console .......2 million in less than a month on a user base of 6.17 million and the wii u mario kart bundle is sold out in all the major cities and stores on the east coast look it up (gamestop,target,best buy) so your notion that appealing software doesn't move hardware or that it won't move hardware or hasn't is very flawed lol and also wii u didn't appeal  to most people was because there was not much software and no advertising  the first 9 months to 12 months now that issue is resolved it's now a lot of software available and a lot of people were waiting for mario kart 8 ...now the system is more appealing and will continue to be more appealing in which software sells hardware ....

1. Mario Kart 8 is not the fastest selling Mario Kart at all, Mario Kart Wii and 3DS sold over 2 million in 4 weeks easily and Mario Kart SNES and 64 sold a million in 4 weeks in Japan alone.

2. You completely misunderstood his post, he doesn't say anywhere that Nintendo games don't move hardware, he said that they won't push enough, because they don't appeal to enough people. You point out MK8 as if it in any way supports your point when in reality it really doesn't at all. So the bundles are sold out in some places, and? That literally tells us nothing, if we don't have any solid numbers. What we know is that the Wii U has already fallen below 10k in Japan again, that it sold just over 60k in May in the US, that Mario Kart is already dropping steadily in the UK and, if we put some trust in Vgchartz numbers, that the Wii U is overall going down pretty fast again after Mario Kart.

None of those indicate that the Wii U is now more appealing to the general customer, that the Wii U has a bigger chance of doing better than the GC now, that the Wii Us issues are now resolved (I mean lol, really?) or anything like that. If at all Mario Kart 8 perfectly illustrates his point, Nintendo franchises sell great to the Nintendo fans, who are the ones buying the Wii U anyway, but still only have a limited fanbase and will thus never be the things that will sell more than 20-25mil Wii Us lifetime.



Aerys said:
Yes and no.

Wii U will sell less than GC in the same time, but since Wii U could have a longer life, it could sell more


Why would nintendo stick with a product longer then they stuck with a product that was selling better? Wii U won't make it past 2017.



BTW - it makes sense that the MK8 bundle is sold out... Don't expect that to change. I went to see if it's a discontinued product and when I looked for a bar code on the sales floor there were no spots for it. Targets website says not sold in stores. I'm pretty sure it was a very limited bundle.



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etking said:
The market is smaller today and the Wii-U is no mass market product. No way it will sell even close to GC unless it is completely redesigned / rebooted in a mass market compatible way which means no or smaller tablet and many sports and casual games.


I'm not really sure I understand your post. Do you think that the Wii U needs more sports games? And I personally believe that the Wii U will sell more than the GC. Why does the Wii U need to be a mass market product?



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

Raze said:

Yup, the 1st party titles will always jab non-owners in the rib cage. Granted, I AM talking LTD here, so when the price drops into a range that people are comfortable with spending in order to play those first party games. Nintendo will still take a loss on the system due to those price drops, when people finally buy one.

I don't see this any different than the slow 3DS start, or the slow PS3 start. Took them a while to get momentum. PS4 did everything right this gen, the Wii U had a very soft first 2 years, software wise. Due to that, it got lots of bad press, so it's going to take a while for the general public to shed that impression. If Smash Bros and Zelda are as good as advertised, it'll get the pace moving. With talk of a Star Fox game, and possibly a Metroid game, that should be enough to whet the appetitite of even ex-Nintendo fans, once the price drops into a reasonable range of course.

Only one Nintendo home console has hit 75m, so first party titles certainly don't always do it.  The Wii U has already had a lot of the games that made the Wii such a success.  NSMB, Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Mario Kart, Wii Party, Just Dance, etc.  If all these once massive franchises lead to the Wii U selling 68k just two weeks after MK8, how will it make it to 75m?  On June 14, 2008 the Wii was at 27.7m and selling ~300k (sometimes quite a bit more) a week.  So it already had a 21.3m lead over the Wii U in a similar time frame, and was gaining by nearly a quarter of a million per week.  That means in a few months the Wii will already have a 26m lead over the Wii U.  Which in turn means that the Wii U will need to start matching Wii sales from that point forward to hit 75m.  To put that in perspective, a five week period during the 2008 holidays saw the Wii sell more than the Wii U has lifetime.

The comparisons to the 3DS and PS3 were never great, but it is getting ridiculous now.  The 3DS turned things around in about 5 months, and was selling considerably better than the Wii U even before the price cut.  Only the 2 weeks right before the price cut saw 3DS sales lower than the Wii U 2 weeks after MK8.  The PS3 again turned things around more quickly (holiday '07), and was doing better during its "slow start" compared to the Wii U.  As of June 14, 2008 the PS3 was 108% higher LTD, and had 352% higher weekly sales.  To be fair that was MGS4 launch week, but that is still 133% higher than the MK8 launch week. The PS3 also stayed higher than the MK8 launch week for five more consecutive weeks.

How much do you expect those 4 games to sell?  Even if we're optimistic they probably won't be higher than 20m combined.  So assuming zero current Wii U owners buy them, and zero people buy more than one game, that means the Wii U would still need to sell 55m on the backs of other games.  So far it has managed 6.4m with 1.5 years and quite a few formerly massive franchises.



35 Million is my prediction. Possibly 40.



The launch of the wii u was so misleading. I think it will sell less than the Gamecube as well. Maybe 15 million.



phaedruss said:
The launch of the wii u was so misleading. I think it will sell less than the Gamecube as well. Maybe 15 million.


Wow. Go ahead and say that it will sell less than the Gamecube, that's fine. But don't make my eyes bleed because I had to read that ludicrous prediction of 15 million.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.