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Forums - Sales - I was wrong: Wii U will sell < GC

Jay70sgamer said:
binary solo said:
KLXVER said:
The WiiU will sell more. The industry has become way bigger than it was in the GC era...

No it hasn't. In fact I predict that this generation will have similar sales to the 6th gen, and perhaps less.

Gaming has gotten much bigger, thanks to mobile phones and Facebook type games. But home consoles peaked in the 7th generation, largely thanks to the one generation wonders of the Nintendo blue ocean. That blue ocean has evaporated, as we can see with the pathetic Wii U sales. PS3+X360 < PS2+Xb. PS4 is shaping up to have similar sales to PS3 (only in less time) and Xb one is shaping up to have a lot less sales than X360. If Wii U was to some how miraculously reach 30 million in sales the 8th gen will still fall far short of the 7th gen, and unless MS some how performs a miracle with Xb one the 8th gen will fall well short of the 6th.

The 6th gen moved 200 million consoles. I think the 8th gen won't get above 180 million.

As to the prediction. 20 million seems to be as high as Wii U seems likely to go, and it may fall short. However all bets should be held until we see Wii U at $200. When it hits that price sales may pick up a lot. $200 might do for Wii U what $299 did for PS3. Well maybe not quite PS3 numbers, but in a relative sense Wii U might get a similar % boost sales long term. But perhaps by the time Wii U gets to $200 the market will have laregly forgotten it, which is the danger of not having any kind of momentum behind it.

Nintendo is already selling the wii u for 200 dollars refurbished ........hype only sells a console for so long ...software is what moves hardware and nintendo has a lot of appealing software coming out in the next 18 months ......I think all home consoles are not gonna reach no more than 65-70 million in sales... no hundred million consoles sold this generation for none of the big 3   .....I think this generation isn't gonna be longer than last generation of 8 years ...just my opinion ..and to answer the question I think nintendo wii u will sell more than the GameCube 

Really? Appealing to whom? And more appealing than what's already come out for Wii U. We already have the 2D Mario, and the 3D Mario, and the Mario Kart, and the Donkey Kong, and the Luigi. That suite of games should have already pushed Wii U well past 10 million units, what makes you think all the appealing Nintendo games coming out in the next 18 months will have any greater effect than the games that came out in Wii U's first 18 months? Software sells hardware no doubt, but Nintendo's software does not appeal to a big enough audience, and this is amply demonstrated by the fact that Nintendo released many brilliant games on GC but it still sold poorly. And Nintendo is more or less repeating the suite of games that were the top sellers on GC, and yet people are expecting a different result? The old skool Nintendo franchises were not what sold Wii, it was the Wii Fits, and the Wii Sports, and the Wii Plays that sold the Wii. The old Nintendo franchises merely benefitted immensly from that hugely expanded install base. SMG launched when Wii was already at 14 million. SSBB launched when Wii was over 20 million. MK Wii launched when Wii was over 24 million. NSMB Wii launched when Wii was over 56 million.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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*Sound Of Rain said:

I was Nintendo blind and now see a less biased picture. 

The GC will have the better sales compared to the Wii U. I'd also like to take this time to say "I'm sorry" for my overly stupid pro-Nintendo predictions before. There are many of them since I joined and they are all pretty bad...


Very few people admit when they are wrong.  I honestly give you credit.



KLXVER said:
binary solo said:

What's that got to do with anything? You can already see it in the numbers. You don't need years worth of sales data to be able to make reasonable predictions for how the generation is likely to go. Can something happen mid-generation to make consoles more popular than ever? Sure. But I don't think it's likely. In fact I think it's more likely that consoles will more and more be seen as a 20th century product and not suited to 21st century sensibilities. So there is more likely to be something mid gen that disrupts the console markets and makes it fizzle rather than take off. Phones and tablets are becomming so powerful that they will soon exceed the current consoles in power, and that could certainly become disruptive to the console market.

 

Ok. Name another console that sold 8 million in its first 8 months...

Wii. And Wii was selling at a mich higher weekly rate at the 8 month mark. So while PS4 started out much higher than Wii, Wii will soon take the lead on a launch aligned comparison, if it hasn't already. If this generation is going to be bigger than the last then PS4 should be over 10 million by now and selling more strongly than Wii was at this point. PS4 doesn't have the wow factor necessary to carry the 8th generation beyond the 7th generation, and Xb one crippled itself with Kinect and Wii U failed to fire.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:
KLXVER said:
binary solo said:

What's that got to do with anything? You can already see it in the numbers. You don't need years worth of sales data to be able to make reasonable predictions for how the generation is likely to go. Can something happen mid-generation to make consoles more popular than ever? Sure. But I don't think it's likely. In fact I think it's more likely that consoles will more and more be seen as a 20th century product and not suited to 21st century sensibilities. So there is more likely to be something mid gen that disrupts the console markets and makes it fizzle rather than take off. Phones and tablets are becomming so powerful that they will soon exceed the current consoles in power, and that could certainly become disruptive to the console market.

 

Ok. Name another console that sold 8 million in its first 8 months...

Wii. And Wii was selling at a mich higher weekly rate at the 8 month mark. So while PS4 started out much higher than Wii, Wii will soon take the lead on a launch aligned comparison, if it hasn't already. If this generation is going to be bigger than the last then PS4 should be over 10 million by now and selling more strongly than Wii was at this point. PS4 doesn't have the wow factor necessary to carry the 8th generation beyond the 7th generation, and Xb one crippled itself with Kinect and Wii U failed to fire.

 

Seems a bit premature to me, but whatever...



People do loooove to rub it in your face when you're off in your predictions on this site (or at least they did when I used to frequent it), so it's probably a smart move to come forward and call yourself out (because believe me, others certainly will if you dare to say something they don't like). Even though the makers of this sites THEMSELVES constantly are somewhat off with the sales, certain people here suddenly look down on you and act like like what you say is irrelivent if you make an incorrect sales prediction. Hey, we're only human.

I've always said that Wii U had a ceiling of having SNES like success, at least once we were at a point when we knew a decent amount of information about it, but I've also thought it had a floor of GC-like sales if Nintendo unwisely kept cranking out Gamecube-like games. And now that it seems Nintendo seems content on cranking out these niche style Gamecube games, it's no surprise we're going to get Gamecube-like sales for Wii U.

It's a bummer, because I really believe that the Wii U's library is eventually going to be one of the stronger libraries of Nintendo's console history, certainly better than Gamecube and N64, yet it looks as though it'll end up selling even worse than its biggest dud, the Gamecube. But there are a number of factors that go into that. The reccession is a big one. People just don't have the money to spend on video games like they used to. Market oversaturation is another. There are simply too many consoles out there, moreso than 20 years ago or even 10. And still another is increasing disinterest in video games, as we approach a new hardcore dominated pre-Wii dark age in gaming, of similar-types of games coming out that appeal to a small group of people and/or have been done to death and thus people get bored with them. (See FF series, Monster Hunter, RE, Assassin's Creed, Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, Halo, etc...)

I still believe that Wii U has some gas left in the tank, and with what seems to be a tidal wave of great Wii U games in 2015, Wii U sales will rise to a strong level and MAY help to carry it past Gamecube's milestone of 22 million. But sadly I think it'll fall short of the N64's 33 million.



"We hold these truths to be self-evident - All men and women created by the, go-you know - you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

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The only way the Wii U outsells the GC at this point is if Nintendo's Amiibo line really takes off and they milk it for all it's worth over the next few years, because beyond that games like Smash and Zelda alone won't be enough to push the Wii U past 20 mil units.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

Vgc done a GC v wiiu sales chart yet?



*Sound Of Rain said:
hunter_alien said:

They are predictions, so they can never be accurate. Dont take it so hard. At one point I was certain that the WiiU will do at least 50 million and the Vita 40. SO yeah...

Looking back though, mine were biased just to be biased. I wasn't ever thinking logically...

I said Wii U would dominate and PS4 would fail. I also said 3DS would do better than DS at one point. I was a blind fanboy. I'm serious too. I made all those predictions seemingly without thinking of anything other than "Go Nintendo!"


Everyone has a biased that will cloud their judgement so you far from alone. Having a bias is just part of being human so don't be so hard on yourself. 



 

Why now you hate Nintendo so much? What did he do to you?



LTD the Wii U will sell around 75 Mil units.



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