Wyrdness said: If a niche game like ZombiU can hit around 700k (possibly 800k with digital sales) then I can see Bayonetta breaking 1m in its lifetime if marketed and pushed, I would bet money both ZombiU and W101 would of sold far less on other platforms even with larger userbases. Nintendo weren't even expecting W101 to sell anything at all and it hit 200k. The U has a strong attach rate at this point, I'll stick with a 1.2m lifetime prediction although I wouldn't be surprised if it sold more.

I really get the sense that that Zombi U number on VGChartz is heavily overtracked. 

700k+ for Zombi U is enough to warrant a sequel and enough to make a profit but Ubi Soft said it wasn't profitable. That's one of the main reasons Rayman was delayed last year. It would also mean at some point like 1/4 or 1/5 of Wii U owners had the game which also seems fairly dubious. 

Soundwave said: Wyrdness said: If a niche game like ZombiU can hit around 700k (possibly 800k with digital sales) then I can see Bayonetta breaking 1m in its lifetime if marketed and pushed, I would bet money both ZombiU and W101 would of sold far less on other platforms even with larger userbases. Nintendo weren't even expecting W101 to sell anything at all and it hit 200k. The U has a strong attach rate at this point, I'll stick with a 1.2m lifetime prediction although I wouldn't be surprised if it sold more. I really get the sense that that Zombi U number on VGChartz is heavily overtracked.  700k+ for Zombi U is enough to warrant a sequel and enough to make a profit but Ubi Soft said it wasn't profitable. That's one of the main reasons Rayman was delayed last year. It would also mean at some point like 1/4 or 1/5 of Wii U owners had the game which also seems fairly dubious.

Tomb Raider reboot didn't turn a profit even when it passed 5m some develpers just don't mange their resources efficiently and Ubisoft did at some point scrap the game to do it from scratch, 1/4 of Wii U owners is plausible when you look at the attach rate, NSMBU has sold 4m (2/3 of U owners have the game), SM3DW has sold 2m (1/3), WW has sold 1.5m going by Nintendo's numbers, MK8 sold 1.2m etc... Rayman Legends sold the same amount on the U as it did on the PS3 despite a 75m difference in the userbase.

Smear-Gel said: Firstly, people say that the fanbase for Bayonetta 2 is on PS3/360 so it wont sell at all on Wii U. That's a bit silly because implying that each gamer only gets one console each gen is pretty silly. Plus, people who havent played it before can clearly become interested. Which leads me to the second point. Secondy, the biggest barrier of entry to the game was the fact that people might not have played the first one. Now, it's been revealed that the first game will be bundled at no extra cost. So you can play the whole series from the start, AND you get two games for the price of one. I see people saying it will sell 600K LIFETIME and that just sounds insane. I guess this can be a prediction thread as well, and I do predict it could pass 1 mil in lifetime sales, though It's probably too niche to get to anything like, 2.5mil to 3 mil.

I guess I'm one of those guys who thinks that both of those points are true. Especially bolded: i don't see how anyone would actually be enticed to purchase a game he knows little about by the fact it's coming bunded with the first game. What if I buy it, and hate it? The first game coming bundled for free should have no impact on selling to newcomers, I see it more as a thank you note for existing fans who now can play their beloved part 1 on a new console.

Nintendo would definitely generate more buzz and better sales for B2  if they just gave every WiiU owner a free download of the first game (kinda like PS+ or Games with Gold deal). They're giving it away for free anyway, so why not, let's say 45 days before releasing B2, put it on the marketplace for everyone to experience. That way they could motivate some of the existing WiiU owners to dip into the more adult fare on their console. And would probably generate better hardware sales in a month leading into B2 release by those Sony/MS gamers who are thinking of buying a 2nd console. Increased demand for console would generate some positive word-of-mouth and impact the sales of B2 significantly.

However, based on the current data, it will probably cater to the existing core audience already owning WiiU (those buying AssCreed, CoD, Batman, FIFA... on WiiU), and will attract just a small number of MS/Sony owners, who will have a choice of spending $300 on one game, or on 5 hits for their current console that are coming out this holiday season and cannot be found on WiiU.

I think 600K is very realistic figure, that will be reached only in a couple of years when B2 is a catalogue title for users picking up a heavily price-slashed WiiU ($150-$175).

I think under a million

I would be very surprised if it would hit a million lifetime.

spemanig said: Aielyn said: You do realise that The Wonderful 101 came first, right? And it's not that Nintendo bought an exclusive, it's that Nintendo chose to fund the game because nobody else was. In other words, they got Bayo 2 because they saw potential, they already had a relationship with Platinum (who brought the idea to them) and all of the third-party publishers were too risk-averse. They did see potencial. Sales. From Bayo fans. Who cares if 101 came first. That's irrelevant.

No, the potential for sales in general. Or do you think that only fans of a series can buy a game in the series?

Bayonetta 2 selling 1 million would be a dream come true, but it will most likely sell under a million!

No way it's getting over 500k lifetime without bundling. People bought Wii Us to play Smash, Kart, Mario and Zelda not Bayonetta

Pristine20 said: No way it's getting over 500k lifetime without bundling. People bought Wii Us to play Smash, Kart, Mario and Zelda not Bayonetta

It may do better than 500k and I see absolutely no reason why Nintendo would bundle this game, but I 100% agree that consumers are buying the Wii U to play Smash, Kart, Mario and Zelda. 

I'm going to revisit this thread when the sales figures come in. I fully expect to see EVERYONE predicting unrealistic success (1m +) to be in here, shuffling their feet, eating crow and apologizing for their misplaced exuberance. 

I also remain pessimistic.

Look I hope it'll be a big success and it makes Nintendo pick up other franchises in the future, but I just don't see the audience being there. Internet-hype just isn't the real world.

I'd say about 600k, 700k tops.