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Forums - Sales - Predict: Which consoles exclusives will sell the most combined this fall/holdiay?

 

Which console exclusives combined will sell the most?

WiiU's 216 50.82%
 
XB1's 82 19.29%
 
PS4's 112 26.35%
 
Statistical Tie 13 3.06%
 
Total:423
DanneSandin on 11 June 2014
Captain_Tom said:
DanneSandin said:
Captain_Tom said:


So I have a few responses:

-Mario Kart actually proves my point.  The Wii U's biggest 1st party game of the generation couldn't outsell a third party game on PS4.

Yes, but we're talking exclusives right now. Best selling game this year will probably be CoD or Destiny, but neither are exclusives. And neither LBP nor Driveclub can rival Smash in popularity. I'm hard pressed to believe that LBP3 will do more than 1m first week. Smash will do that and then some.

-LBP games have always sold well, and it has been a long time since they released a major LBP.

See my point above, I guess...? Or sumthin'

-The last Forza was just released, and so I could easily see Driveclub beat that game on a console with double the install and no racing game yet.  It will sell like hotcakes in Europe.

Very true

-Halo: CEA only sold 2.24m on a console with a massive install base.  I could easily see the massive win LBP3 has ove Sunset combined with the surplus Driveclub has over Forza beat MS's total.

I'm sure Halo MCC will be somewhat of a system seller for MS, more so than LBP anyways. But yeah, it's a sound logic you have there.

-Nintendo is just a wild card in my book.  Their biggest game is selling well, but not as well as they need it to.  I doubt their combined 1st party games sales will be beat either Sony or MS this holiday.

As we've seen with MK8 it really pushed Wii U numbers. Doubled in Japan and increased 666% in UK. That's pretty good. Smash will push out units as well (but not quite as many I think, since many who bought MK8 will buy SMash and therefore already has a Wii U). And again, I don't think we're talking 1st parties here. We're talking exclusives. Hyrule Warriors will probably do 300-500k, and that Toad game will probably do some 300-500k this year as well, as well might bayo2. Combined that'll be 1m for sure, and then we top it of with yet another 1m from Smash. At the very least. Probably 2m by years end. I don't Sony's exclusives can match that. Remember, the key word here is Exclusives.

Responses are always fun :D Mine are bolded ;)

I think everyone here is underestimating LBP.  LBP sold 5.44m while Forza Horizon and Halco: CEA combined sold 4m.  The PS4's install base is will be effectively double X1's and no main LBP has come out for 3 years!

Then take into account the insanely broad appeal of LBP3 and all the people who will be picking up the Destiney bundle looking for another game that isn't a shooter.  

At this point I wouldn't bet any money on any of the three winning.  This is gonna be a lot closer than a lot of people realize...

But you have to remember that the PS4s install base is much smaller now as well, and LBP has never been a system seller afaik. Halo Is THE xbox system seller.

you might be right tho that this will be a lot closer than most of us think. Itll be fun to watch!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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DanneSandin on 11 June 2014
Seece said:
DanneSandin said:
Seece said:
DanneSandin said:
Why don't we have a thread like this but for the WHOLE year?? That would be more fun :P Which console has the best selling exclusives combined for the entire year? Or, which console has the best selling 1st party games combined for the entire year?

That usually gets done I think! You're welcome to do that tho if nobody does.

I might, but I cant be bothered to do it seriously, as in making columns and tracking everyones prediction... Id do it like youve done it here, just straight up ask people what they think. Not that this thread isnt serious, thats not what Im saying :p if noone else has done it I might tomorrow... Well see.

Aha, I plan charts and weekly tracking, I will add that stuff when the first game comes out.

*bumped up to serious prediction thread*



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

BenVTrigger on 11 June 2014
Seece said:
BenVTrigger said:
So far The Master Chief collection is out preordering everything including 3rd party titles

Better than Halo CEA? If you can remember that far back of course.


Destroying it. Its more on the pace of a mainline Halo. Its tracking like a 5 million plus selling title



DanneSandin on 11 June 2014
Captain_Tom said:
DanneSandin said:
Why don't we have a thread like this but for the WHOLE year?? That would be more fun :P Which console has the best selling exclusives combined for the entire year? Or, which console has the best selling 1st party games combined for the entire year?


Agreed.  A 2015 thread would mean something, otherwise I could just say:

>"Who will sell more exclusive games in the mid summer?"  

>"Well duh PS4 because TLoU and no competition."


While a 2015 thread would be fun as well, I was more thinking a 2014 thread. I have no numbers at all so I dont know whos "leading", I only know that MK8 did 1.2m. Do we know which console exclusives combined are ahead?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 11 June 2014
BenVTrigger said:
Seece said:
BenVTrigger said:
So far The Master Chief collection is out preordering everything including 3rd party titles

Better than Halo CEA? If you can remember that far back of course.


Destroying it. Its more on the pace of a mainline Halo. Its tracking like a 5 million plus selling title


Damn! That game is giving Smash a run for its money! At least this year, Nintendo games tend to have longer legs, but thats some good numbers for a collection



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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wary-wallaroo on 11 June 2014

Nintendo simply because they're more, plus Nintendo games are the best.



BenVTrigger on 11 June 2014
DanneSandin said:
BenVTrigger said:

Destroying it. Its more on the pace of a mainline Halo. Its tracking like a 5 million plus selling title


Damn! That game is giving Smash a run for its money! At least this year, Nintendo games tend to have longer legs, but thats some good numbers for a collection


Keep in mind im not saying it necessarily will sell 5 million or anything but its early pace is amazing. It will for sure sell far more than Halo CEA though



Captain_Tom on 11 June 2014
DanneSandin said:
Captain_Tom said:
DanneSandin said:
Captain_Tom said:


So I have a few responses:

-Mario Kart actually proves my point.  The Wii U's biggest 1st party game of the generation couldn't outsell a third party game on PS4.

Yes, but we're talking exclusives right now. Best selling game this year will probably be CoD or Destiny, but neither are exclusives. And neither LBP nor Driveclub can rival Smash in popularity. I'm hard pressed to believe that LBP3 will do more than 1m first week. Smash will do that and then some.

-LBP games have always sold well, and it has been a long time since they released a major LBP.

See my point above, I guess...? Or sumthin'

-The last Forza was just released, and so I could easily see Driveclub beat that game on a console with double the install and no racing game yet.  It will sell like hotcakes in Europe.

Very true

-Halo: CEA only sold 2.24m on a console with a massive install base.  I could easily see the massive win LBP3 has ove Sunset combined with the surplus Driveclub has over Forza beat MS's total.

I'm sure Halo MCC will be somewhat of a system seller for MS, more so than LBP anyways. But yeah, it's a sound logic you have there.

-Nintendo is just a wild card in my book.  Their biggest game is selling well, but not as well as they need it to.  I doubt their combined 1st party games sales will be beat either Sony or MS this holiday.

As we've seen with MK8 it really pushed Wii U numbers. Doubled in Japan and increased 666% in UK. That's pretty good. Smash will push out units as well (but not quite as many I think, since many who bought MK8 will buy SMash and therefore already has a Wii U). And again, I don't think we're talking 1st parties here. We're talking exclusives. Hyrule Warriors will probably do 300-500k, and that Toad game will probably do some 300-500k this year as well, as well might bayo2. Combined that'll be 1m for sure, and then we top it of with yet another 1m from Smash. At the very least. Probably 2m by years end. I don't Sony's exclusives can match that. Remember, the key word here is Exclusives.

Responses are always fun :D Mine are bolded ;)

I think everyone here is underestimating LBP.  LBP sold 5.44m while Forza Horizon and Halco: CEA combined sold 4m.  The PS4's install base is will be effectively double X1's and no main LBP has come out for 3 years!

Then take into account the insanely broad appeal of LBP3 and all the people who will be picking up the Destiney bundle looking for another game that isn't a shooter.  

At this point I wouldn't bet any money on any of the three winning.  This is gonna be a lot closer than a lot of people realize...

But you have to remember that the PS4s install base is much smaller now as well, and LBP has never been a system seller afaik. Halo Is THE xbox system seller.

you might be right tho that this will be a lot closer than most of us think. Itll be fun to watch!

It has always been a system seller.  The numbers don't lie.



man-bear-pig on 11 June 2014

Xbone>=WiiU>PS4

Edit: wtf @ the poll lulz



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Welfare on 11 June 2014

Unless more PS4 exclusives are announced at Gamescon, no way LBP3 and Drive Club will outsell MS or Nintendo's line-up. For MS and Nintendo, if SSB releases after Halo, then MS has this in the bag, since I don't see Sonic, Toad, and Bayo doing much. Hyrule Warriors might push it towards Nintendo's favor, but there is also Sunset and Forza to help MS.

If SSB releases BEFORE Halo
Nintendo > Microsoft > Sony

If SSB releases AFTER Halo
Microsoft > Nintendo > Sony



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287