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Forums - Sales Discussion - April 2014 NPD Thread!

^ first sentence behind the => ,



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

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kirby007 said:
^ first sentence behind the => ,


So you think it's silly to hate people that ask for corrections?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
kirby007 said:
^ first sentence behind the => ,

So you think it's silly to hate people that ask for corrections?

Ofcourse, It's already quite obvious PSV numbers are wrong with the new model



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 said:
DonFerrari said:
kirby007 said:
^ first sentence behind the => ,

So you think it's silly to hate people that ask for corrections?

Ofcourse, It's already quite obvious PSV numbers are wrong with the new model


It is funny that a game that wasn't released for X1 were on top 10 (spiderman), and them a game that were just sold as bundle selling more than the HW (even tough the HW could sell some unbundled as well)... But that is crazy funny for me. Before we used the weekly numbers to have an idea of how well HW and SW were selling (not with precision, but ballpark figures) now we use it to guess how much wrong they have got it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Kasz216 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
kopstudent89 said:
So it's Wii U's chance to redeem itself really this month. Needs to at least match the levels of PS4/XBone this month (though both aren't doin that well really)


lol i love posts like this. sellng 4x as much as wii u and 2x xb1 isnt doing well lol

 

That's clearly below average as far as performing vs expectations.

Not as bad as the Xbone which completely undershot all expectations but there you go.

When compaired vs itself, the number is somewhat dissapointing.

 

It's just a really weak month for all consoles.  The question is... why?

The answer is games (or the lack of it or more importantly, them not being exclusive to the new gen).

Personally, the PS4 has so far exceeded my expectations, at this rate its on track to have an install base of over 17ml consoles worldwide by the end of this year. We are still in a crossgen phase. That is the biggest problem. 

Just consider this. CALL of DUTY: GHOSTS sold across platforms

  • PS4 2.18ml
  • XBO 1.73ml
  • 360 8.59ml
  • PS3 7.88ml 

Look at the 360+PS3 numbers. That is a clear indication of what a cross-gen market does. No one that owns a PS4 is also buying COD on their PS3. So there are 16+ml people right now that are not buying a new console cause they can still get that game on the old one. Some will/may upgrade this year but most may still hold out. Now imagine how sales will be when the only place to play the new COD is on the new consoles. You can do the same thng for every other major franchise taking into account that there wil be a lot of cross over (i.e, the same person may own COD, FIFA and AC). 

Historically, first year sales of a new console has always been slow. 2nd year sales is usually where the magic happens. With exception to anomalies like the Wii and PS2. Though thats another story.



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Intrinsic said:
Kasz216 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
kopstudent89 said:
So it's Wii U's chance to redeem itself really this month. Needs to at least match the levels of PS4/XBone this month (though both aren't doin that well really)


lol i love posts like this. sellng 4x as much as wii u and 2x xb1 isnt doing well lol

 

That's clearly below average as far as performing vs expectations.

Not as bad as the Xbone which completely undershot all expectations but there you go.

When compaired vs itself, the number is somewhat dissapointing.

 

It's just a really weak month for all consoles.  The question is... why?

The answer is games (or the lack of it or more importantly, them not being exclusive to the new gen).

Personally, the PS4 has so far exceeded my expectations, at this rate its on track to have an install base of over 17ml consoles worldwide by the end of this year. We are still in a crossgen phase. That is the biggest problem. 

Just consider this. CALL of DUTY: GHOSTS sold across platforms

 

  • PS4 2.18ml
  • XBO 1.73ml
  • 360 8.59ml
  • PS3 7.88ml 

 

Look at the 360+PS3 numbers. That is a clear indication of what a cross-gen market does. No one that owns a PS4 is also buying COD on their PS3. So there are 16+ml people right now that are not buying a new console cause they can still get that game on the old one. Some will/may upgrade this year but most may still hold out. Now imagine how sales will be when the only place to play the new COD is on the new consoles. You can do the same thng for every other major franchise taking into account that there wil be a lot of cross over (i.e, the same person may own COD, FIFA and AC). 

Historically, first year sales of a new console has always been slow. 2nd year sales is usually where the magic happens. With exception to anomalies like the Wii and PS2. Though thats another story.


You could also put WiiU and PSVita as anomalies for the other side.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

You could also put WiiU and PSVita as anomalies for the other side.

Well, I was trying to cut my post short. The PS2 and Wii were anomalies cause they did extremely well in their respective first years. For the PS2 this was because of the success of the PS1 and how strong the PS brand had become and of course $299. For the Wii, it was because of an innovation that resonated amongst non-gamers. If the PS3 had come in at $399 it would have been infinitely more successful than it was. MS didn't win market share cause it decimated the PS3, it won cause sony shot themselves in the foot (the curse of the third so to speak). 

Now if you look at the PSV and WiiU; the wiiU shows that through the entire Wii generation nintendo didnt actually increase its core install base from the GC or N64. If anything they lost core fans. They sold a looooot of consoles, but mostly to the type of people that would buy just the one game on the system and who have now firmly moved on to playing games on their phones and tablets. The PSV and the dwindling sales of the 3DS shows that the dedicated handheld gaming market is in flux. Expected when you consider that you can play pretty decent games on your phones these days. 

The PS3 and 360 selling over 80ml each showed there are at least 120ml core gamers out there (the type of people that buy at least 5 gams a year). Yes, if follwing numbers this should read as 160ml, but for some strange reason everyone seems to ignore that a lot of people buy more than one console in any console genration. Even if they sell their previous console to another "new user" theer are still those that bought a second console cause their first packed up or those that bought both consoles (360 & PS3) so there is crossover here.  Whats important here though is that Sony and MS are fighting for what is a potential 120ml active install base over the lifetime of their respective consoles.

Lastly, another really big misconception is the industries focus on console sales. Probably cause its an easier marketing metric to use, what is really importnat is attach rate. Proof of this is again looking at the Wii; nintendo sold the most amount of consoles with the Wii but had the worst attach rate of the thre platforms, this forced them to jump into a new gnration arlier than the other two. Another way to look at it is this, if you sell 100 consoles and have an attach rate of 2.0, and I sell 50 consoles but have an attach rate of 6.0........ I am making way more money than you are. 



Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

You could also put WiiU and PSVita as anomalies for the other side.

Well, I was trying to cut my post short. The PS2 and Wii were anomalies cause they did extremely well in their respective first years. For the PS2 this was because of the success of the PS1 and how strong the PS brand had become and of course $299. For the Wii, it was because of an innovation that resonated amongst non-gamers. If the PS3 had come in at $399 it would have been infinitely more successful than it was. MS didn't win market share cause it decimated the PS3, it won cause sony shot themselves in the foot (the curse of the third so to speak). 

Now if you look at the PSV and WiiU; the wiiU shows that through the entire Wii generation nintendo didnt actually increase its core install base from the GC or N64. If anything they lost core fans. They sold a looooot of consoles, but mostly to the type of people that would buy just the one game on the system and who have now firmly moved on to playing games on their phones and tablets. The PSV and the dwindling sales of the 3DS shows that the dedicated handheld gaming market is in flux. Expected when you consider that you can play pretty decent games on your phones these days. 

The PS3 and 360 selling over 80ml each showed there are at least 120ml core gamers out there (the type of people that buy at least 5 gams a year). Yes, if follwing numbers this should read as 160ml, but for some strange reason everyone seems to ignore that a lot of people buy more than one console in any console genration. Even if they sell their previous console to another "new user" theer are still those that bought a second console cause their first packed up or those that bought both consoles (360 & PS3) so there is crossover here.  Whats important here though is that Sony and MS are fighting for what is a potential 120ml active install base over the lifetime of their respective consoles.

Lastly, another really big misconception is the industries focus on console sales. Probably cause its an easier marketing metric to use, what is really importnat is attach rate. Proof of this is again looking at the Wii; nintendo sold the most amount of consoles with the Wii but had the worst attach rate of the thre platforms, this forced them to jump into a new gnration arlier than the other two. Another way to look at it is this, if you sell 100 consoles and have an attach rate of 2.0, and I sell 50 consoles but have an attach rate of 6.0........ I am making way more money than you are. 


Most people are aware that attach ratios are almost more important than HW sales because that is were the money is made... I just asked you to put PSV and WiiU because they are also anomalies that had a worst 2nd year, but was because of plumetting sales not because of great 1st year.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Max King of the Wild said:
kopstudent89 said:
So it's Wii U's chance to redeem itself really this month. Needs to at least match the levels of PS4/XBone this month (though both aren't doin that well really)


lol i love posts like this. sellng 4x as much as wii u and 2x xb1 isnt doing well lol


Healthy consoles tend to do 250k+ a month really. PS4 is doing solid numbers but as the leading console it's not *that* impressive. Though, it's still alaunch console so it can be forgiven. Next year will be a better indicator.



DonFerrari said:
kirby007 said:
DonFerrari said:
kirby007 said:
^ first sentence behind the => ,

So you think it's silly to hate people that ask for corrections?

Ofcourse, It's already quite obvious PSV numbers are wrong with the new model


It is funny that a game that wasn't released for X1 were on top 10 (spiderman), and them a game that were just sold as bundle selling more than the HW (even tough the HW could sell some unbundled as well)... But that is crazy funny for me. Before we used the weekly numbers to have an idea of how well HW and SW were selling (not with precision, but ballpark figures) now we use it to guess how much wrong they have got it.


We all we on here each week saying, VGC, these numbers cant be right. Here is the logic behind that. And each week the numbers stayed the same. We all said great now VGC is going to look silly AGAIN come NDP. The numbers kept coming the came. Now NDP happened and honestly it was worse than I feared. I Thought a 200k to 175k was possible, 200k to 150k still likely. I would not have gone as low as 110k.....



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut