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Forums - Sales Discussion - April 2014 NPD Thread!

Burek said:

Seriously? People are going out spending $500 and don't even know anything about the product they are buying? They can't be even bothered to spend 5 minutes online to get informed? I wish I had that amount of money where I don't care about it...

I won't say that you guys are wrong, it seems that I am the one that's apparently overestimating an average person. I am just baffled by it. I mean, it's not as if console buyers are Amish or grizzled mountain men of northern Montana. If they are buying a console, they at least have an occasional internet access to check up on their potential purchase.

If the three of you think I'm wrong, I probably am. For now, I'll stick to my beliefs regardless, and in about 25 days we'll find out how (un)informed an average American consumer is. 

I'd have to agree with you on this. Perhaps some people DON'T research as thoroughly as we do but I'm willing to bet that those who don't are influenced by those they ask that do.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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AstroGamer said:

Those were sneaked in. ~106k 

Not bad but not good either


Hm.  This is the only post in the thread about 3DS sales and they aren't even in the OP either.  Where did you get them from?

Seems VGC was on the money with that tracking then, just a little bit over.  Sales aren't great but aren't terrible either, as you say.



RolStoppable said:

Kres, Kres, Kres...

Seven years ago we laughed at systems that struggled to clear the 100k units hurdle. Those 3DS sales are bad, no way around it.


We are no longer in 2007, though.

It's time to start looking at sales from the perspective of a market which is going to severely contract over the course of a generation (and is already well on its way).

And in relation to a handheld & home console which both failed to launch and another home console which is stumbling out of the gate, 106k is not great but not terrible either.



People will know about the price drop when they'll see it at e3/Tv, in fact, i think most casual gamers wont know until e3.

You'd be surprised how people are uninformed or only take informations from Gamestop/Best Buy/... , so they wont know, because they wont tell to the people who want a One that the console will get a price drop, they cant, it's their business.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Aerys said:
People will know about the price drop when they'll see it at e3/Tv, in fact, i think most casual gamers wont know until e3.

You'd be surprised how people are uninformed or only take informations from Gamestop/Best Buy/... , so they wont know, because they wont tell to the people who want a One that the console will get a price drop, they cant, it's their business.


It's me again... I just typed in gamestop.com, and the very first picture that greeted me was XBox for.$399 starting June 9.

I still think you are underestimating the intelect of casual buyers. 



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Kresnik said:
AstroGamer said:

Those were sneaked in. ~106k 

Not bad but not good either


Hm.  This is the only post in the thread about 3DS sales and they aren't even in the OP either.  Where did you get them from?

Seems VGC was on the money with that tracking then, just a little bit over.  Sales aren't great but aren't terrible either, as you say.

I got it from NeoGaf. A leaker alluded to this number when responding to someone's educated guess



My Hummingbird

3DS Friend Code: 047387541842

RolStoppable said:

I suppose if you lower your expectations enough, everything can be acceptable.

Apply your reasoning to VGC itself. It's time to start looking at this site as one that its owner doesn't care about as much as in 2007 anymore. It's not unusual to take months for some obvious errors to be adjusted. And in relation to that, the current reliability of VGC estimates is not great, but not terrible either.

No, Kresnik, don't adopt such a mindset.


I'm struggling with that analogy, Rol.

To apply the nearest thing I can think of: TV ratings in the USA.  Nielsen says that most TV shows aren't being watched nearly as much as they were in the late 90's and earlier, due to the advent of more choice (cable); more options for broadcasting (+1 channels; Tivo; internet shows) etc.

Is that it for dedicated TV then?  Does every sitcom that doesn't reach Friends numbers get cancelled?  Every Sci-Fi show that doesn't hit the ratings of Star Trek TNG is swiftly cut? 

Of course not.  Markets adapt.  And yes, it's definitely a case of "lowering your expectations" but such is life.  Mediums of whatever it may be (TV/videogames/books/news delivery etc.) do not stay constant, they change with time.  

I suppose you could call everything bad compared to what it used to be if you wanted.  Which is fine.  But I don't think that just because something has peaked, everything later is automatically terrible.

(Whether these 3DS numbers are actually terrible probably needs a few more years inside this generation to truly assess the damage).



bigjon said:
Watching Aprils numbers come in from VGC was like we were all watching a train wreck about to happen in slow motion. Each week most of us said "No way XB1 is that close to PS4 due to the fact PS4 beat XB1 in March, and now XB1 cost more and has no Titanfall" Yet each week the numbers kept showing it closer or even XB1 ahead (unadajusted).

Its sad that BenV with a simple anecdote has a higher degree of accuracity. Analysis, applying logic to data. VGC had data this week, we user tried to apply logic to help, to no avail.


That is because the data of his "anedoctal" pool is like 100% accurate for one big retailer and he just says based on that what console have been doing better than the other and if any of the 2 are rising or falling. He don't claim exact numbers and that is why he is a lot more thrustworthy than VGC, but sometimes he have the general numbers wrong.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Burek said:
Aerys said:
People will know about the price drop when they'll see it at e3/Tv, in fact, i think most casual gamers wont know until e3.

You'd be surprised how people are uninformed or only take informations from Gamestop/Best Buy/... , so they wont know, because they wont tell to the people who want a One that the console will get a price drop, they cant, it's their business.


It's me again... I just typed in gamestop.com, and the very first picture that greeted me was XBox for.$399 starting June 9.

I still think you are underestimating the intelect of casual buyers. 

Even if you take it for granted that a huge part of the population are blithering idiots that don't research jack squat, the PS4 still wins because of social inertia. XB1 has a much worse name in social media, and if someone has 10 gaming friends, the odds are ever higher that they will have a PS4 over an XB1 for the new gen, so players that want to MP with friends will continue that trend.



Fusioncode said:
Comparison with 360 numbers courtesy of Aquamarine

360:
April 2006 - 295K

April 2007 - 174K

April 2008 - 188K

April 2009 - 175K

April 2010 - 185K

April 2011 - 297K

April 2012 - 236K

April 2013 - 130K

Xbox One:

April 2014 - 115K

Xbox 360 has never managed such a low number for April.


This really explain all about their recent change of policies. 

 

But how is it possible VGC got it so wrong ?! Ok i thought it wasn't 100% accurate, but WOW this is just completely at random then !