I highly doubt that Destiny will flop ... If it's one thing that Activision is very good at their good at content consumption monitoring. They know their customers really well hence them having the biggest franchises recently such as call of duty and world of warcraft. The only way Destiny will flop is if it's a bad concept but I also doubt it's that because the studio behind it is Bungie.

i think the 500mil is ment for the whole contract not just the 1st game

Apperently Destiny is too good for the PC, but I hope it succeeds as it currently stands there is only two alternatives to CoD. I doubt it but maybe with more choice and it will kick the CoD devs to try something new.

They said it themselves, they're looking to make a profit from it over the generation, not only in a few days.. Why do you think it's multiplat too?

"from the makers of Halo and CoD"... do you know how marketable that is? that's a few million headstart on any other new IP..

How is the split between last gen and the new gen?

I agree. Activision certainly has the money to support the franchise in the long run, it's not as if one underperforming game can bankrupt them. they still have a wonderfull cash cow called WoW to supply funds for this. And with the September release, they are actually counting on Destiny to sink any upcoming shooter until CoD releases two months later.

I believe they can easily sell 7-8 million copies, and make even more money of DLCs and possibly merchandising...

Every one of my Halo friends are more excited for this then anything. Seriously it will sell to 90% of the Halo crowd and then some because of the massive PS4 advertisement push. Its like they know they have the Xbox/Halo crowd and so ads are aimed at those who arent familiar with Bungie, the PS crowd. I can see this 1st game pushing 15m LT and then there is DLC to come and at least 2 or 3 sequels

They will try to combine it to Halo as much as possible which will do wonders in US. I think it will be a success in the long term but if it's fun we'll have to see. Previews don't look very optimistic.

I still wish this was coming to PC :/