I don't think we'll really see Vita start to out ship the 3DS regularly until 3DS starts declining more heavily in US and EU. Though that could be as early as next year. Outside of Smash Bros or something we haven't seen on the system prior I simply don't see many things that will lift it's hardware trajectory.

Sure there is a new MH and Pokemon and YW2. I just expect those to do well software wise but not pushing hardware since they are already on the platform in some form.

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Unlikely, because they stopped shipping out new Vitas midway through the quarter. Before 2000, it was very difficult to find a Vita because Sony just hadn't been shipping any (not that there was huge demand anyway).

It's possible that it might have higher shipments, but it wouldn't be by any noticeable number.

Yeah for mainly this reason of probably clearing stock in Europe and NA for 2000 I think Vita didn't outship 3DS despite Japan.
I'd guess they stopped shipping to NA in March to clear stock for 2000, which wouldn't have started shipment yet. Just speculation, and based on not seeing Vitas replaced on shelves the few times I've been to the stores the last couple months in L.A.

I'm just gonna guess 30K to NA, 110K to Europe, and 390K to Japan. So 530K even if they didn't overship all that much last quarter. They may have.

Honestly NA shipments might be negative like Wii U in Europe last year. The shipments would just be redirected elsewhere though, so it could be a tie. Seece always comes up with these good threads :D.

Yes, I did. And I stand true to my statement, 3DS is still dominating overall software sales in Japan and in Europe the Vita may be doing better, but still isn't nearly near the level of the 3DS. The demand alone is the reason why the 3DS will continue to easily outship the Vita. 

EU usually doubles US at least, so we could think about 100K and that would put it at 590K already. But your Vita numbers are from VGC? Could it be overtracked (Japan numbers must be right since we always correct it with Media Create)?

I'd say the shipments will be very close. If the Vita does out-ship the 3DS it won't be by much considering I don't see Nintendo reeling in their shipments that drastically.

I also doubt Nintendo really expected such a sad first few months in the year. They were most likely counting on momentum carrying the 3DS through the beginning of the year, and they might've shipped to be able to act on that.

Either way, the situation isn't good for the Vita still. And definitely not good for the 3DS when it's now being compared to it.

While 3DS shipments are pretty bleh, I highly doubt the Vita can really outship it for now!  Maybe it will happen in 2015!

Yuck. The fact it has come to that makes me sick. A new advertising campaign and a price-cut might be necessary.