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I'd say the shipments will be very close. If the Vita does out-ship the 3DS it won't be by much considering I don't see Nintendo reeling in their shipments that drastically.

I also doubt Nintendo really expected such a sad first few months in the year. They were most likely counting on momentum carrying the 3DS through the beginning of the year, and they might've shipped to be able to act on that.

Either way, the situation isn't good for the Vita still. And definitely not good for the 3DS when it's now being compared to it.