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Forums - Gaming - PS4 estimated to sell 17 million & XB1 10 million by the end of 2014

kowenicki said:
freedquaker said:
ethomaz said:
I will hold my 2013 estimated.

PS4: 18 million shipped
Xbone: 9.8 million shipped


Your XB1 is estimate is within the confidence of my estimate, so it is in agreement.

Your PS4 estimate seems a bit too high by 0.5 million from the upperbound, though not by much.

Theres a surprise.

OT

This gens first 18 months will be more front loaded.  Last gen isnt neccesarily a barometer for this gen.  Your model is therefore flawed in my opinion.

This. Not sure why people think otherwise. It's a direct result of coming from the longest runnng gen. The PSVita/PS4 attachment figures also point to this. A whopping 60%... "Core gamers" will run out, eventually.



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ironmanDX said:

This. Not sure why people think otherwise. It's a direct result of coming from the longest runnng gen. The PSVita/PS4 attachment figures also point to this. A whopping 60%... "Core gamers" will run out, eventually.

I think the summer decline is what matters most here. Since holiday, should be the biggest time of this year for sales. Especially since supply issues and limited territories won't be a problem any longer.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

ethomaz said:

BenVTrigger said:

How does no sound?

Aprils gonna be a bit of an eye opener for people. Unless NPD decides to do some major adjustments prepare for a large drop off for both X1 and PS4.

Anyone thinking PS4 could keep the momentum it had are sadly mistaken. And X1 is dead.

I think PS4 will keep the momentum... I know you are talking about GS in US but Sony was reaching the demand in US (like you said they finally reached it in US) and now they need to to the same in Europe.

Europe will compensate the US sales.... so while you can be right about a down in sales in US... EU will have a boost because right now most countries there are sold out yet with exception of UK.

You could be 100% correct. I dont know the situation at all outside of the US.

And just to be clear to everyone Im not saying PS4 is DOOMED or anything at all. Just that it will be down in April 



tuscaniman99 said:

How does it sound like BS? PS4 has no games worth buying it for. It is not the next PS2 and never will be. X1 is still $499. Even including Titanfall it still says $499 on the sticker. Nobody is dropping 500 bucks over the summer with no games. Neither console is worth buying right now and won't be until the fall.


BS cause if hes got numbers should post them if not i call bs on it. 

PS4 has no games yet is the record fastest selling console... ever.  Ur right its not PS2, it surpassed even its sales at this time. 
Not arguing abut X1, have one and regret the hell out of it. 



BeElite said:


BS cause if hes got numbers should post them if not i call bs on it. 

PS4 has no games yet is the record fastest selling console... ever.  Ur right its not PS2, it surpassed even its sales at this time. 
Not arguing abut X1, have one and regret the hell out of it. 


I never implied that the PS4 has no games or hasn't done an absolute fantastic job, it does and it has. What I said is that there is very little software over the next few months to drive continued momentum for the console. Early adopters will not carry that momentum forever. To get the rest of the userbase onto the console it needs high profile exclusive content. Something both the Xbox One and the PS4 are going to be facing a drought of over the next 4 to 5 months. PS4 is certainly in a better position with MLB and Last of Us but really neither are MAJOR momentum movers, at this point in the systems life. 

And I DO get numbers on a weekly and daily basis. Everyone on this site knows that, I've proved it time and time again. That being said I very well could be wrong about April PS4 sales being down compared to March. It is entirely possible other retailers saw continued sales and did an unbelievable job. I find this hard to believe though given what I've seen. You don't have to believe it that is totally fine.

If I'm wrong I'll gladly take my plate of crow and move on with life. I'm right much more than I'm wrong so I can certainly take getting something off from time to time, it won't be the end of the world. (Though I'm sure certain users will bookmark the posts and point to it but whatevs)



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BenVTrigger said:
BeElite said:


BS cause if hes got numbers should post them if not i call bs on it. 

PS4 has no games yet is the record fastest selling console... ever.  Ur right its not PS2, it surpassed even its sales at this time. 
Not arguing abut X1, have one and regret the hell out of it. 


I never implied that the PS4 has no games or hasn't done an absolute fantastic job, it does and it has. What I said is that there is very little software over the next few months to drive continued momentum for the console. Early adopters will not carry that momentum forever. To get the rest of the userbase onto the console it needs high profile exclusive content. Something both the Xbox One and the PS4 are going to be facing a drought of over the next 4 to 5 months. PS4 is certainly in a better position with MLB and Last of Us but really neither are MAJOR momentum movers, at this point in the systems life. 

And I DO get numbers on a weekly and daily basis. Everyone on this site knows that, I've proved it time and time again. That being said I very well could be wrong about April PS4 sales being down compared to March. It is entirely possible other retailers saw continued sales and did an unbelievable job. I find this hard to believe though given what I've seen. You don't have to believe it that is totally fine.

If I'm wrong I'll gladly take my plate of crow and move on with life. I'm right much more than I'm wrong so I can certainly take getting something off from time to time, it won't be the end of the world. (Though I'm sure certain users will bookmark the posts and point to it but whatevs)

If you got some numbers post em, should be interesting.  PS4 being down from Infamous march would be no surprise, down from feb would.

Never said you said it lacked games, other dude did.

What drought?

May Mlb2014, Bound by Flame, Wolfenstein, Watch dogs
June Murdered soul suspect,EA UFC, Elder scrolls online
Only Luly lacks concrete release dates.
Aug Madden,  The Evil Within
Sept Destiny

Lots of games are q2 or q3  with no specific dates. Planetside2 SniperElite3 The Crew, if the Order is their Xmas title Drive CLub should be coming soon.   If UC4 comes xmas then The order and DC even more soon.  Might lack major ones but has enough to keep us gaming.  Madden will be big in US, then id say Destiny could be a new juggernaut which PS4 will benefit most from. 



BenVTrigger said:

How does no sound?

Aprils gonna be a bit of an eye opener for people. Unless NPD decides to do some major adjustments prepare for a large drop off for both X1 and PS4.

Anyone thinking PS4 could keep the momentum it had are sadly mistaken. And X1 is dead.

dead? thats harsh, i certainly didnt expect that. 

i expected large drops. PS4 going sub 100k weekly worldide, low shipments for both. and a big drop for both consoles in summer from june-early sept as you said earlier. 

But calling XB1 dead? maybe thats a bit harsh? 



RolStoppable said:
bananaking21 said:

dead? thats harsh, i certainly didnt expect that. 

i expected large drops. PS4 going sub 100k weekly worldide, low shipments for both. and a big drop for both consoles in summer from june-early sept as you said earlier. 

But calling XB1 dead? maybe thats a bit harsh? 

I have a suspicion that he is pulling a Molyneux on us (overpromising and underdelivering). Don't get the champagne out yet.





I do think those predictions are overly optimistic.

The PS4 is likely to sell another 6 to 8 million this year and the X1 another 2 to 3 millions at the current paces assuming a slow summer and better holidays. I really dont see where the optimistic numbers are coming from. It would require gigantic holiday sales, when both systems wont have more than one or two exclusives.



bananaking21 said:
BenVTrigger said:

How does no sound?

Aprils gonna be a bit of an eye opener for people. Unless NPD decides to do some major adjustments prepare for a large drop off for both X1 and PS4.

Anyone thinking PS4 could keep the momentum it had are sadly mistaken. And X1 is dead.

dead? thats harsh, i certainly didnt expect that. 

i expected large drops. PS4 going sub 100k weekly worldide, low shipments for both. and a big drop for both consoles in summer from june-early sept as you said earlier. 

But calling XB1 dead? maybe thats a bit harsh? 

Pff it ain't dead, look it's doing 60k a week in the US. :D

Yeah, summer is going to be low, though the PS4 will possibly hold somewhat better since it still has some (big) European countries that haven't hit the point where you can simply go into a store and get a PS4 yet, on Amazon Germany for example the PS4 still shoots up to number 1 as soon as it becomes available.