This is a 3 month update on my previous estimates for the sales for PS4 & XB1.

For the detailed original estimates, see this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

UPDATE on 2014-02-15 (based on End of 2013, general trends till 2020) has the following estimates for PS4 & XB1

End of 2014

PS4 : 13.7 - 17 million

XB1 : 6.3 - 9.8 million

Those estimates are still valid, however, a recent update is somewhat more probable and precise.

UPDATE on 2014-04-15 has the following estimates

End of 2014

PS4 : 15.3 - 17.5 million

XB1 : 8.1 - 10.5 million

I'll assume you want other people to guess

PS4 - 15.8m
X1 - 11.1m

This is on the assumption X1 gets a permanent price cut of at least $50 and regional equivalents

Healthy numbers for both consoles.

Not sure how valid the 17M prediction will be.

At full steam, it's reported that Sony can only make 1M a month. So if Sony continue to make consoles at full steam and sell every single console then they could hit 17M.

The trouble is that, if not already, Sony will slow down production in the quiet parts of the year. That is of course they decide to stock pile millions of consoles that would cost money to store. It would also be a very risky move because, even though the PS4 is selling well now, there could be chance that they will have millions of consoles stored away unsold for months. That could be disastrous and very money consuming.

17 million might be a bit high but we will see

Both are currently in free fall.

Prepare for an ungodly bad summer. Both need big exclusive games ASAP

I have based those estimates on the comparative numbers for X360 and PS3 in 2007. My previous estimates were assuming a 17% shrinkage in the non-Nintendo market but it seems like the decline is smaller than this, which is translated as a boost to both consoles overall.

Also I have been assuming a market share between 24 to 33% for XB1 (among non-Nintendo consoles), and it seems to be getting closer to 33%, most likely due to agressive pricing and marketing from MS, which again boosted the low end estimates for XB1. However, yet based on historical X360 ad PS3 performance, 11 million seems an overkill for XB1 at this stage, with the high end caoed at 10.5 million. However, a change in MS strategy may turn things around a bit. We will see this when I update the estimates at the end of June. Also by the end of 2014, I will update the estimates for the entire 8th generation (I did have estimates untill 2020, which seems plausible at this moment). That update should have somewhat larger changes due to the uncertainty on the Japanese market.

You estimated up until 2020?  That's brave considering people use predictions to get at people on this site

Will there be a Watch Dogs boost?

yes I do have detailed estimates untill 2020 for both XB1 and PS4 and I am pretty sure they will prove to be accurate. The only caveat is that those estimates have a fairly large confidence interval (XB1 will sell between 41 and 64 by the end of 2020 for example), due to several unknowns in the console market. By time, those estimates will (not prove to be wrong but) be updated to be more precise....

See them here :

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1