8 months left

well we already know of one ps4 semi exclusive in The Last of Us, theres still no release date on DriveClub, and i wouldnt be surprised if at E3 Sony had some type of announcement(which im sure will get leaked) about a unanounced game coming in the months after.

ps4 will be the hottest product this xmas worldwide

The Last of Us will not be moving any hardware....no one is going to spend $460 for a better looking last gen game. That port exists because its cheap to make, gives Naughty Dog practice with PS4 hardware, and slightly fills the massive hole in the PS4s library for the next 5 to 6 months.

These consoles need BIG hitters and they need them soon if they want to continue momentum.

I expect 15 million for the PS4 and 9 million for the X1! It will be interesting to see how those consoles will perform during summer!

MLB The Show (for US of course)
Watch_Dogs
The Last of Us

Seems a good line up to May/June... maybe April will be down but May will be up again.

I can't see the Xbox One selling anywhere close to that amount unless they have a drastic price cut or they have some HUUUUUGE Megatons prepared for E3.

The One is in SERIOUS trouble at the moment, it hasn't done a great deal better than the Wii U this time last year and it's only a matter of months before the PS4 has twice the installed userbase of the One which will probably mean that PS4 SKUs are going to sell twice as much.

It's not necessarily flawed but it is "imprecise" on purpose. You'd amazed how accurate the history turns out to be with some due adjustments. This is why I am leaving a good amount of confidence interval and avoid point estimates. There are a lot of other variables I am taking into account but they seem to cancel each other out or simply be too ambgiuous to be included in the estimates. At the end of the day, they turn out to be accurate almost always.

I do see what you're coming from, and in case of a bad scenario, let's see what may happen...

a) XB1 has sold around 4.4 million as of now, right? This includes 1.3 million or so this year. There is no way XB1 will sell less than this untill the Xmas period. So the worst possible scenario before the last quarter is that XB1 will be around 6 million by the beginning of Xmas.

b)Xmas time is a hectic period especially in English speaking Countries like US, Canada, and UK. The historical sales ratio, regardless of which year you take as an anchor will put XB1 at a minimum of 7.5-8 million at the year end.

So you may consider the lower end of the XB1 estimate to be more accurate, but not much more. PS4 will be roughly double the XB1 numbers at the end of 2014.

Actually, the One has sold almost twice as much as the Wii U in its first Q1, roughly 1.2 million vs 600k. If the One is in SERIOUS trouble selling twice as much as the Wii U in the same time frame, what does that say about the Wii U?

OT: My predictions are in my sig, I think people are selling the One short and overestimating the PS4 quite a bit, I can't see any logical reason why the PS4 would sell 13,14-15 million this year, especially with the current numbers and with what is bound to be a really arrid summer up ahead with slim servings of big software. It would need an immense Q4 to pull these numbers off. In other words, OP, I'm sitting on the lower end of your PS4 estimated spectrum and the higher end of the One spectrum.

The Wii sold about 16.5 million in its first CY and maintained a 250k average through all of summer and moved over 7 million units in Q4, how is the PS4 going to come close to this when it already moves close to the 100k mark in weekly sales? How is it suddenly going to start pulling nearly twice the current numbers over the slowest period of the year? People are going way overboard with their expectations of the PS4, in my honest opinion.