PS4 estimated to sell 17 million & XB1 10 million by the end of 2014

[freedquaker]

kowenicki said:

freedquaker said:

ethomaz said:
I will hold my 2013 estimated.

PS4: 18 million shipped
Xbone: 9.8 million shipped

Your XB1 is estimate is within the confidence of my estimate, so it is in agreement.

Your PS4 estimate seems a bit too high by 0.5 million from the upperbound, though not by much.

Theres a surprise.

OT

This gens first 18 months will be more front loaded.  Last gen isnt neccesarily a barometer for this gen.  Your model is therefore flawed in my opinion.

It's not necessarily flawed but it is "imprecise" on purpose. You'd amazed how accurate the history turns out to be with some due adjustments. This is why I am leaving a good amount of confidence interval and avoid point estimates. There are a lot of other variables I am taking into account but they seem to cancel each other out or simply be too ambgiuous to be included in the estimates. At the end of the day, they turn out to be accurate almost always.