PS4 estimated to sell 17 million & XB1 10 million by the end of 2014

[freedquaker]

celador said:
I'll assume you want other people to guess

PS4 - 15.8m
X1 - 11.1m

This is on the assumption X1 gets a permanent price cut of at least $50 and regional equivalents

I have based those estimates on the comparative numbers for X360 and PS3 in 2007. My previous estimates were assuming a 17% shrinkage in the non-Nintendo market but it seems like the decline is smaller than this, which is translated as a boost to both consoles overall.

Also I have been assuming a market share between 24 to 33% for XB1 (among non-Nintendo consoles), and it seems to be getting closer to 33%, most likely due to agressive pricing and marketing from MS, which again boosted the low end estimates for XB1. However, yet based on historical X360 ad PS3 performance, 11 million seems an overkill for XB1 at this stage, with the high end caoed at 10.5 million. However, a change in MS strategy may turn things around a bit. We will see this when I update the estimates at the end of June. Also by the end of 2014, I will update the estimates for the entire 8th generation (I did have estimates untill 2020, which seems plausible at this moment). That update should have somewhat larger changes due to the uncertainty on the Japanese market.