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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD December numbers

Monty on 11 January 2007

Stromprophet said: Monty said: I'd also take that bet... You think the Wii will outsell the 360 by about 700,000 units every month until the summer? I'm not even certain that Nintendo is projecting they'll make 14-15 million units by then (where the 360 is projected). Worldwide yes. It's not going to be that hard for Nintendo to get production up. They claim to have shipped 4 million worldwide thus far. They have sold 1 million units in Japan. They sold almost 300k one week over there. Worldwide I don't think it will be hard. After January we'll have a clearer picture how the respective systems will sell in Non-holiday non-launch environments for the year. I think it can easily outsell every console by 300k in Japan and 300k in Europe for at least the first half of this year and then into the end of the year. But after more people get their HD TVs Wii loses its advantage. And of course lack of killer apps, such as MGS4, FFXIII, Halo3, etc, etc. None of the real graphics intensive games will even touch the Wii. I'm not sure how the PS3 will do. But I'm getting one in March after my tax-refund. I'm sure once the exclusive usual titles come out, and also increased blu-ray penetration. Overall, I think it will get really close for the long term this cycle.
Nintendo is saying 6 million by the end of March. Sales do not remain at a Holiday pace, nor does shipping/manufacturing. They will not even get to 10 million by the summer. Plus, the Wii didn't even outsell the 360 in the holiday season. It likely sold around 3 million and is still around 6 million behind (which was where it was at when we started). They've yet to gain any ground, but you think they're going to outsell the 360 by 6 million in the next 6-8 months. You are a delusional fanboy! Not only will Nintendo not produce that many consoles, it's doubtful they could push that many in that short amount of time, especially in the dead months... spring and summer are usually the deadest months. Look at any console's stats in those months and try to draw up a logical scenario where the Wii will outsell the 360 by 6 million in those months. It would have to move insanely high number - like we've never seen before - in all those months. Pull your head out of Nintendo's rear for just a minute and reason this through!



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Monty on 11 January 2007

nickg said: Firelore said: I think you guys need to rework your Wii numbers. They don't seem feasible based off of the numbers NPD released. Agreed. Your numbers seem too high for certain systems now that we have NPD data for December. I fail to understand why speculated numbers are so easily added for the Wii and PS3, but when it comes the 360, increments are meticulously scrutinized. I originally thought this site was more fair than other sites, but lately I'm not so sure.
That's what I've been saying all along. I also can't help but wonder if there is bias, especially when I read the site owner was a Nintendo fanboy at the GAF forums.



TheSource on 12 January 2007

I agree with Monty that Nintendo can't catch up by the end of the year. However, long term (say by late 2008/ 2009) I believe it is Sony who is screwed. As you say, Wii is 6 million behind the 360, right as it was when it launched. But Sony is now 8 million behind, after starting 6 million behind... I think it is also likely that the USA will be the closest market in % total sales this gen...with like a 40-33-27 split. In Japan, either Sony or Nintendo will dominate with 60-70 percent of sales. I see that as Nintendo. DQIX will pick up Wii sales even though it is a DS game. Pokemon, Mario, Brain Training, Wii Sports, Wii Play, Zelda should be able to hold off Snake, FF, and the soccer, fighting and racing clones on PS3. However, by appealing to 3 markets (I don't see the 360 ever reaching 1 million in Japan, Wii already has), instead of 2, Nintendo needs only to achieve say 2/3 the sales Microsoft does in the Americas and Europe/Aust. That is feasible. Sony will not catch up in 2007. Without FF and DQ, the Japanese market will continue going to Nintendo, North America will be 360 followed by whoever can make more consoles..and Europe will be 360, Wii, PS3 based on the PS3 late launch and greater supply constraints they face. Many are assuming similar things about the PS3 as to what was assumed about the Nintendo 64. Because it is the most powerful, it can launch last, with less games and a worse business model and 'win'. Sony will be second in Japan like Nintendo was, on name alone, but elsewhere has much work to do.



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Diomedes1976 on 12 January 2007

I dont know how in hell can Sony be 8 millions behind if the X360 hasnt sold as much consoles as 8 million .



psorcerer on 12 January 2007

Monty said: Anyhow, as I pointed out in the other thread, the 360 is outselling the original Xbox by leaps and bounds... so, not sure why you keep trying to slam it, Stromprophet. By this July it will reach 14.5 million a year faster than the Xbox 1 did it.
Bullshit. After 14th month by NPD: xbox - 4.6mm x360 - 4.5mm



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Diomedes1976 on 12 January 2007

broshnat said: Hi all It's Broshnat here, the site owner. Regarding the Wii figures, like a number of other sources we projected Wii to sell more than 1 million in December. WMS, CBFS, Nintendo themselves all independently agreed with this. I know WMS have their own (limited) internal tracking a bit like we do - we get a heads up from a selection of stores - and figures were suggesting Wii sales similar to 360 and about double PS3. Obviously this isn't how things materialised - we don't know if the stores / tracking period we had data for was skewed, maybe at points where new shipments had arrived and Wii was selling large numbers - to be honest I don't really know. It seems strange WMS also predicted similar values as did a number of other reputable analysts. The other factor is a statement from Nintendo that they had exceeded shipment expectations - thought to be just under 2m for NA in 2006. Something does seem a little fishy here. I'm definitely not accusing NPD of foul play or anything like that, but their figure does seem much lower than everyone was expecting. Having said that, we will obviously be fixing our main data on the front page once we have some more figures to support this. Accusations of bias towards Nintendo are not fair - we use the same system to arrive at figures for all 3 consoles. PS3 / 360 / DS / PSP numbers are all spot on, as are Wii Japan and 'Others' numbers - it's only this NA figure that has thrown people. Thank you all again for supporting the site and please let these great discussions continue!
Hi Broshnat ,nobody is accusing you ...its clear some of the predictions of those entities were in the same lines .But ,I also remember hearing Fils Aimee saying their would do their best to reach 1 million in NA .In any case good to hear you will fix this in the main page . As for the other numbers being spot on ...well some are some arent .X360 are inflated thats clear ...if NPD puts total X360 sales in US at 4.5 million they cant reach 8.3 million worldwide .PS3 are good if you count the 10 days of january ..if not 750 000+467 000 doesnt add 1.41 million .PSP and DS are spot on .THe PS3 number can remain as it is ...the difference is minimal and in any case it must be already filled by the 12 days of january .But the X360 data should be adressed ...after the disponible data the total amount of X360 sold cant be superior to 7.6-7.7 million and a difference of more than half a million isnt so negliable .



DreamsCast on 12 January 2007

Well data is supposedly current as of the last couple of days we were told in another thread - Japan alone has pushed PS3 sales much higher than you are saying and the US figure looks right when you include January. As I said in the other thread, Wii numbers aren't that far off when you look at the fact this includes Jan as well. 360 numbers look about right to me, NA might be a little high though (200k?) but not much. I too am interested in seeing how many Nintendo say they shipped in 2006...



Diomedes1976 on 12 January 2007

Well ,including the 12 days of January fixes many problems . But still ,the X360 is reported to be at 4.5 in USA ....at best 4.95 in NA .That 5.38 figure is about 400 000 inflated ....even with the january data this doesnt match as the X360 between year sells 200-250 000 per month ...10 days is a third of a month it can amount for some 70-75 000 but not for 400 000 .



DreamsCast on 12 January 2007

More info: HW Sales (month and LTD) Nintendo DS 1.6 mm 9.2 mm PS2 1.4 mm 37.1 mm GBA 850.7 K 35.1 mm Xbox 360 1.1 mm 4.5 mm Wii 604.2 K 1.1 mm PSP 953.2 K 6.7 mm PS3 490.7 K 687.3 K Top 10 Video Games - December 2006 360 GEARS OF WAR - MICROSOFT 815.7 K PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - ACTIVISION 805.2 K PS2 MADDEN NFL 07 - ELECTRONIC ARTS 737.1 K GCN LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 532.9 K WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 519.2 K PS2 WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007 - THQ 484.5 K NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS - NINTENDO 427.5 K 360 CALL OF DUTY 3 - ACTIVISION 410.8 K NDS YOSHI'S ISLAND 2 - NINTENDO 407.2 K PS2 CALL OF DUTY 3 - ACTIVISION 365.3 K Top 10 Video Games - Annual 2006 PS2 MADDEN NFL 07 - ELECTRONIC ARTS 2.8 mm NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS - NINTENDO 2.0 mm 360 GEARS OF WAR - MICROSOFT 1.8 mm PS2 KINGDOM HEARTS II - SQUARE ENIX 1.7 mm PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - ACTIVISION 1.3 mm PS2 FINAL FANTASY XII - SQUARE ENIX 1.3 mm NDS BRAIN AGE: TRAIN YOUR BRAIN - NINTENDO 1.1mm 360 MADDEN NFL 07 - ELECTRONIC ARTS 1.1mm 360 TOM CLANCY'S GRAW - UBISOFT 1.0 mm PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 07- ELECTRONIC ARTS 1.0 mm Top 10 Titles - December 2006 INCLUDES ALL PLATFORMS (consoles and portables) Madden NFL 07 - Electronic Arts 1.9 mm Call Of Duty 3 - Activision 1.1 mm Cars - THQ 874.0 k Need for Speed: Carbon - Electronic Arts 871.6 k 360 GEARS OF WAR - MICROSOFT 815.7 K PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - ACTIVISION 805.2 K Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy - LucasArts 792.3 K WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2007 - THQ 731.6 K Tony Hawk's Project 8 - Activision 713.9 K Marvel: Ultimate Alliance - Activision 642.9 K Top 10 Accessory Items - December 2006 Units 360 WIRELESS CONTROLLER 823.8 k WII REMOTE CONTROLLER 646.7 k WII NUNCHUK CONTROLLER 497.1 k PS2 8 MEG MEMORY CARD 474.8 k PS3 SIXAXIS WIRELESS CONTROLLER 336.0 k PS2 MEMORY CARD 8 MEG 286.0 k PS2/PS DUAL SHOCK2 CONTL 263.4 k PS2/PS BLUE DL SH2 CNTL 245.2 k 360 PLAY & CHARGE KIT 224.6 k PS2 CORDLESS ACTION CNTLR 219.9 k



DreamsCast on 12 January 2007

Wii number has upset a lot of people. Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter (who predicted 1.3m Wii in Dec):

Analysts were also skeptical, with some believing that the Wii sold more than NPD reported. "I don't understand how US Wii sell-through could be 1.1 million cumulatively, with Nintendo saying that they shipped half of their 4 million here and zero inventory on retail shelves at year end," said Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter. "Where are the other 900,000 units? I assume 200,000 are in transit, but this number makes no sense to me at all."