Monty on 11 January 2007
Stromprophet said:
Monty said:
I'd also take that bet... 
You think the Wii will outsell the 360 by about 700,000 units every month until the summer?
I'm not even certain that Nintendo is projecting they'll make 14-15 million units by then (where the 360 is projected).
Worldwide yes. It's not going to be that hard for Nintendo to get production up. They claim to have shipped 4 million worldwide thus far.
They have sold 1 million units in Japan. They sold almost 300k one week over there. Worldwide I don't think it will be hard.
After January we'll have a clearer picture how the respective systems will sell in Non-holiday non-launch environments for the year. I think it can easily outsell every console by 300k in Japan and 300k in Europe for at least the first half of this year and then into the end of the year.
But after more people get their HD TVs Wii loses its advantage. And of course lack of killer apps, such as MGS4, FFXIII, Halo3, etc, etc. None of the real graphics intensive games will even touch the Wii.
I'm not sure how the PS3 will do. But I'm getting one in March after my tax-refund. I'm sure once the exclusive usual titles come out, and also increased blu-ray penetration.
Overall, I think it will get really close for the long term this cycle.
Nintendo is saying 6 million by the end of March. Sales do not remain at a Holiday pace, nor does shipping/manufacturing. They will not even get to 10 million by the summer.
Plus, the Wii didn't even outsell the 360 in the holiday season. It likely sold around 3 million and is still around 6 million behind (which was where it was at when we started). They've yet to gain any ground, but you think they're going to outsell the 360 by 6 million in the next 6-8 months. You are a delusional fanboy!
Not only will Nintendo not produce that many consoles, it's doubtful they could push that many in that short amount of time, especially in the dead months... spring and summer are usually the deadest months.
Look at any console's stats in those months and try to draw up a logical scenario where the Wii will outsell the 360 by 6 million in those months. It would have to move insanely high number - like we've never seen before - in all those months.
Pull your head out of Nintendo's rear for just a minute and reason this through!
You think the Wii will outsell the 360 by about 700,000 units every month until the summer?
I'm not even certain that Nintendo is projecting they'll make 14-15 million units by then (where the 360 is projected).
Worldwide yes. It's not going to be that hard for Nintendo to get production up. They claim to have shipped 4 million worldwide thus far.
They have sold 1 million units in Japan. They sold almost 300k one week over there. Worldwide I don't think it will be hard.
After January we'll have a clearer picture how the respective systems will sell in Non-holiday non-launch environments for the year. I think it can easily outsell every console by 300k in Japan and 300k in Europe for at least the first half of this year and then into the end of the year.
But after more people get their HD TVs Wii loses its advantage. And of course lack of killer apps, such as MGS4, FFXIII, Halo3, etc, etc. None of the real graphics intensive games will even touch the Wii.
I'm not sure how the PS3 will do. But I'm getting one in March after my tax-refund. I'm sure once the exclusive usual titles come out, and also increased blu-ray penetration.
Overall, I think it will get really close for the long term this cycle. 
Essay Pro