I agree with Monty that Nintendo can't catch up by the end of the year. However, long term (say by late 2008/ 2009) I believe it is Sony who is screwed. As you say, Wii is 6 million behind the 360, right as it was when it launched. But Sony is now 8 million behind, after starting 6 million behind... I think it is also likely that the USA will be the closest market in % total sales this gen...with like a 40-33-27 split. In Japan, either Sony or Nintendo will dominate with 60-70 percent of sales. I see that as Nintendo. DQIX will pick up Wii sales even though it is a DS game. Pokemon, Mario, Brain Training, Wii Sports, Wii Play, Zelda should be able to hold off Snake, FF, and the soccer, fighting and racing clones on PS3. However, by appealing to 3 markets (I don't see the 360 ever reaching 1 million in Japan, Wii already has), instead of 2, Nintendo needs only to achieve say 2/3 the sales Microsoft does in the Americas and Europe/Aust. That is feasible. Sony will not catch up in 2007. Without FF and DQ, the Japanese market will continue going to Nintendo, North America will be 360 followed by whoever can make more consoles..and Europe will be 360, Wii, PS3 based on the PS3 late launch and greater supply constraints they face. Many are assuming similar things about the PS3 as to what was assumed about the Nintendo 64. Because it is the most powerful, it can launch last, with less games and a worse business model and 'win'. Sony will be second in Japan like Nintendo was, on name alone, but elsewhere has much work to do.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
