I cant speak for WiiU as i dont know how theyll improve numbers but XBO and PS4 will have a big rise once they hit $300 and third parties abandon PS360. Depending on how long their lifecycle is, pricecuts, games, etc will determine how well they sell. It is way too early to predict what will happen in 5-10 years.

Id argue that the likes of Mario Kart which was continually advertised and/or bundled since launch was the very definition of an expanded market videogame. You just have to look at the ads from Nintendo to see that, with the family around the TV having fun together. Family fun - getting mums and daughters playing with dads and sons, was one of the key things that sold Wii to that expanded market. That said about Mario Kart, the franchise itself on consoles will always generally sell to ~30% of the userbase. Its a "me too" title, that people generally pick up with the console because of the good reputation. 

Id also argue that Mario Kart is a fairly unique example of Nintendo getting the huge expanded market to go out and buy the "core" Nintendo franchises. When you look at how many Wii consoles have been sold (100m) to how many Gamecube consoles were sold (21 Million), the differences in sales of other franchises arent what youd expect. I know attach ratios arent the perfect example to prove this due to several flaws, but it does give you an idea of the differences in userbase and just how many people in the expanded audience jumped onto other Nintendo IP.

Smash Bros. Melee - 7 Million sold on a userbase of 21 Million (~30% attach ratio)
Smash Bros. Brawl - 12 Million sold on a userbase of 100 Million (~12% attach ratio) 

Its also worth noting, that without Melee and Brawl added into the respective libraries for "Fighters", more fighters were sold on Cube than on Wii. ~11 Million on the Cube against ~10 Million on the Wii. This is despite the Wii having more Fighting games.

Zelda: The Wind Waker - 4.6 Million sold on a userbase of 21 Million (~22% attach ratio)
Zelda: Twilight Princess - 6.9 Million sold on a userbase of 100 Million (6.9% attach ratio)
Zelda: Skyward Sword - 3.7 Million sold on a userbase of 100 Million (3.7% attach ratio)

Twilight Princess sold really well, but only 2.3 Million more than Wind Waker? Skyward Sword trashed by Wind Waker? This shows the expanded audience wasnt really on board with the LoZ franchise... Unless were talking Link's Crossbow Training which will end up outselling Skyward Sword.

Metroid Prime - 2.8 Million sold on a userbase of 21 Million (~13% attach ratio)
Metroid Prime 2 - 1.3 Million sold on a userbase of 21 Million (~6% attach ratio)
Metroid Prime 3 - 1.8 Million sold on a userbase of 100 Million (~1.8% attach ratio)

As you can see, the expanded market simply ignored this franchise.

To keep this relatively short, looking at a few more titles - Super Mario Sunshine to the Galaxy games gives a similar conclusion to the Smash Bros comparison. Animal Crossing gives a similar conclusion. Paper Mario gives a similar conclusion.

On the other hand, Mario Party in an example that saw a huge increase with MP8 to the Cube games (though the Cube had a lot of MP).

I think sales prove that that the vast majority of the Wii userbase were expanded market gamers who jumped on board out of the blue. It was a brilliant business strategy and it worked for Nintendo. Kids absolutely loved the thing. Mums wanted to buy it. Dads enjoyed playing it. Grandma and Grandpa could get in on the fun. It was great for parties. The best selling games and genres on the Wii prove this, while other Nintendo IP havent seen brilliant growth from N64 > NGC > Wii. Id also argue that the Wii U can be evidence towards this, with IP that sold extremely well on Wii doing nothing at all for Wii U sales (and in certain cases tanking all together, Wii Fit U)

While Turkish is pulling numbers out of his arse, as I said in my first post, I think the side discussion about the Wii userbase and just what it was (and where its now gone) is quite interesting. Its certainly not a 20:80 ratio in terms of "core" and "casual" gamers, but I myself would estimate it close to 35:65, if not 40:60.

To answer your first question, one of the Guitar Hero games and Sonic Unleashed. IIRC, COD3 also did better on Wii than PS3 and wasn't far behind the 360 version. 

To answer your second question, Super Smash Bros. Brawl which sold 1.2 million from 2012 on (after Nintendo dropped the Wii). Monster Hunter sold well on Wii, I wouldn't call over 2 million modest. Several "seriously hardcore" games on Wii didn't sell 3+ million, and if a game dissapointed on the charts then there was a reason behind it. I am specifically talking about Red Steel 2, Dead Space Extraction, Madworld, and No More Heroes here, but there are many others. 

Games like COD, GoldenEye, Resident Evil 4, and Star Wars among others did respectable numbers. Not GTAV respectable but still decent. I know the PS360 has the majority of hardcore gamers, but the Wii still had it's minority; more than the OP, and others in the thread have stated. 

The casual audience on PS4/XBO/WiiU right now has shrunk compared to last gen, but the gen is just beginning, and there are still several holiday seasons to go. Some casuals may still upgrade later in the gen, most won't, but I think there will be a casual presence this gen. 

Wii U sales are on track to 25m right now, but like I said, the gen is just starting. The XBO could go either way right now, and the PS4 will likely sell ~80-90m. If MS messes up with the XBO, or Nintendo does something right with the Wii U, all of those numbers could change. 

Maybe, but I think it's more considerate than those who are saying the market is PS3+X360+Wii gamers, joining that with PS4's initial success, and concluding PS4 will sell more than PS2.

Sorry but the response to this is "have you been hiding under a rock?".  Kids happily gaming on iPad has been a thing for a few years now.

My son was the same.  Fortunately I got him a Wii U for Christmas and he's been into that, as well as a bit of PS4, more than iPad since then.

To be fair I don't have too many younger members in my family now, and they've always been playing a DS or PSP when they'd come round.

I've seen it as a time pass using a parents iPad when there is nothing better to do, not in place of a dedicated gaming platform.

He wasn't interested in 3DS, Vita, Wii U or PS4. He just wanted to play some game for a breakfast cereal.

"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts."

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/new-report-from-the-npd-group-focuses-on-core-gaming-and-core-gamers/

According to Core Gaming 2013, the latest report from global information company, the NPD Group, within the US population ages 9 and older, almost half play video games on what would be considered a core gaming device, but only 14 percent, or 37.5 million people, would be considered a core gamer*.

What about the PS2 having a DVD player? This was HUGE back then.

The loss of casuals I think will make publishers more risk-averse and give us more less-than-stellar games.

When you have a series like Just Dance that is low-cost to develop and rakes in millions -- it gives companies like Ubisoft the working capital to take risks that help pioneer innovative games.