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Forums - Gaming - True install base of Gen 6 and Gen 7 and a look at Gen 8

Kane1389 on 16 February 2014
foodfather said:
Your biggest mistake OP is assuming each and every console sold represents a singe customer.

I have brought 4 Xbox 360s at retail. 18/20 friends I know with a 360/PS3 have owned more than one SKU. The two who have not brought more than one sku, left gaming entirely...

There are probably around 40m individual PS3 owners and around 45m 360 owners.

You'd think that because of RRoD, we would have less individual 360 players and more individual PS3 players but I guess not



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MikeRox on 16 February 2014

My youngest cousin came around today with my Uncle. He was playing *shudder* an iPad...

I've NEVER known anyone sit playing games happily on a non "gaming" centric device before ever. Gaming is going to decline badly this gen :(



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

colafitte on 16 February 2014
MikeRox said:
My youngest cousin came around today with my Uncle. He was playing *shudder* an iPad...

I've NEVER known anyone sit playing games happily on a non "gaming" centric device before ever. Gaming is going to decline badly this gen :(


Wii maybe was a fad, but there's no reason to think the Ipads are not a fad either. People always want what they don't have or what's really new. I think the kids that play an ipad today will want a ps4 tomorrow. 



binary solo on 16 February 2014
IamAwsome said:
TheShape31 said:

I disagree with the premise of the OP.  To say that almost all Wii owners were non-gamers is silly.  Just my thought.

It's Turkish, he always bags on Nintendo. 

Anyway I agree with you. There were a LOT of cross Wii/PS3 and Wii/360 owners, and the Wii had a decent share of hardcore gamers. 

@The OP

These numbers are kinda inflated. There were a lot of cross gen owners so just adding up the numbers  won't give you a true amount of core gamers. 

Name one multiplatform "hardcore" game that sold best on Wii?

Name one hardcore Wii exclusive that has virtually no appeal to "casuals" that sold better than the top PS3 or 360 exclusives that have virtually no appeal to casuals. You could argue that SMG is the best selling Wii exclusive that has no appeal to casuals, but I actually think LoZ: Twilight princess is that game. But still all the sriously hard core games (Madworld, No More Heroes, Metroid, Red Steel, Resident Evil, Monster Hunter, House of the Dead, GoldenEye etc) all qacheived pretty modest sales and in some cases fairly disappointing sales.

As a proportion of total console sales Wii did not have a decent share of hardcore gamers. The hardcore gamers were hugely skewed to PS360, because of HD.

But I do think Wii got more than GC levels of sales to gamers who were in the console market for more than just the 7th generation. But those gamers having previously been on PS1 and PS2 (most likely) look like they are going back to PS this generation.  And those who were casual on PS2 and went to Wii, are possibly ditching consoles and going casual elsewhere. I don't think it requires too much speculation to conclude that the size of the casual market on consoles has shrunk dramatically. The majority of the console market is now committed console gamers, with some primarily PC gamers getting one or two consoles for the exclusives, and some casuals who like to have a varied casual experience.

I think the OP is over-estimating PS4 lifetime sales. Probably over-estimating Xb one lifetime sales, and probably correctly estimating Wii U lifetime sales.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

ICStats on 16 February 2014
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:

Im struggling to argue against that. As are other people in the thread, as you can see by them laughing it off, insulting you or deflecting it.

Or nobody has just bothered to, since he literally just made up the number on the spot... which is pretty worthy of just outright dismissil and ridicule.  (Hell, I'd of considered just locking the topic as flamebait had Khan not posted in it.)


Shit if I recall the research correctly greater than 20% of Wii Owners owned more then 2 consoles.

 

Old one from 09 but....

 

Nearly 40 percent of PS3 owners also own Wiis or Xbox 360s, 18 percent of Xbox 360 owners have PS3s, and few Wii owners also possess 360s (26 percent) or PS3s (14 percent).

 

http://www.joystiq.com/2009/09/15/npd-provides-stats-on-game-promotion-platform-cross-ownership/

 

I'd actually expect Cross Platform ownership to RISE as the generation goes on... espiecally with the Wii, which lost it's sales luster late on, and likely the back end sales are mostly 360/PS3 owners picking it up for exclusives.   I mean, it probably decreased for the PS3 since it was so unpopular early on, but Wii and 360 likely only increased as the generation went on.

Hard to call multi-console owners casual or new audience.

 

Cross Platform play something he totally ignored and totally invalidates his theories in the first place.

This doesn't support your point.

~20% of Wii owners had multiple consoles;  ~80% did not own multiple consoles.

The 20% are likely to be core gamer / casual, while the 80% are likely to have more non-gamers, kids, and Nintendo only diehards.

The OP has a good point, and he doesn't have to be 100% accurate (neither are VGC, NPD, Nintendo surveys, etc.) he just has to have a good analysis.



My 8th gen collection

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Aerys on 16 February 2014
colafitte said:

The user base won't change too much from 7th gen. It's just that a lot of consumers won't spent in more than 1 console this time, because there's no need to, and that console is going to be PS4. That's why people saying PS4 won't sell at ps2 levels is absurd. PS4 have every chance to reach or beat PS2 numbers.

Just looks these shipment numbers from ps1 and ps2...

As you can see PS1 and PS2 dindn't have the first 2 years sales of the Wii, but after that both were much better than Wii, and that's because both PS1 and PS2 had the best library of games for every audience by far. PS1 and PS2 didn't have too much "casual games" at first neither, but after the success of the first years casuals started to buy massively those consoles. The same will happen with PS4. The problem Wii had after 2010 was there wasn't enough games that justified the console. Nintendo consoles don't have 3rd party support and that's why N64, GameCube, Wii and WiiU failed in the end. Playstation consoles don't have this problem.

If PS4 is starting like Wii levels and keep the pace like PS1 and PS2....the industry will be fine, software will be sold much more than ever. The only ones that will be screwed are WiiU and Xbox One.

 

Pretty much this, all those " industry is dead " make me laugh,  industry is just back to normal domination. I would even say an industry with sony dominating is a better industry ( that doesnt prevent nintendo to make nintendo, and microsoft will have to create games instead of buyng them, so more variety)



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

loy310 on 16 February 2014

To be fair the wii must be counted fully into gen7 or you can't count the ps2 in gen6. Can't have it both ways, the ps2 was the casual king.
Outside of that, nice thread.



the_dengle on 16 February 2014
binary solo said:

Name one multiplatform "hardcore" game that sold best on Wii?

Name one hardcore Wii exclusive that has virtually no appeal to "casuals" that sold better than the top PS3 or 360 exclusives that have virtually no appeal to casuals.

Could someone fill me in on some examples here? What are the "hardcore" PS3/360 games I keep hearing about?



MikeRox on 16 February 2014
colafitte said:
MikeRox said:
My youngest cousin came around today with my Uncle. He was playing *shudder* an iPad...

I've NEVER known anyone sit playing games happily on a non "gaming" centric device before ever. Gaming is going to decline badly this gen :(


Wii maybe was a fad, but there's no reason to think the Ipads are not a fad either. People always want what they don't have or what's really new. I think the kids that play an ipad today will want a ps4 tomorrow. 


I hope you're right. The problem is, I think they're also going to want the 69p apps to go with that PS4. :/

That said, when I was a lad, a game was acctually £1.99 or whatever (on ZX Spectrum etc.) and we managed to handle the concept of a £40+ "console game".



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

Kasz216 on 16 February 2014
ICStats said:
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:

Im struggling to argue against that. As are other people in the thread, as you can see by them laughing it off, insulting you or deflecting it.

Or nobody has just bothered to, since he literally just made up the number on the spot... which is pretty worthy of just outright dismissil and ridicule.  (Hell, I'd of considered just locking the topic as flamebait had Khan not posted in it.)


Shit if I recall the research correctly greater than 20% of Wii Owners owned more then 2 consoles.

 

Old one from 09 but....

 

Nearly 40 percent of PS3 owners also own Wiis or Xbox 360s, 18 percent of Xbox 360 owners have PS3s, and few Wii owners also possess 360s (26 percent) or PS3s (14 percent).

 

http://www.joystiq.com/2009/09/15/npd-provides-stats-on-game-promotion-platform-cross-ownership/

 

I'd actually expect Cross Platform ownership to RISE as the generation goes on... espiecally with the Wii, which lost it's sales luster late on, and likely the back end sales are mostly 360/PS3 owners picking it up for exclusives.   I mean, it probably decreased for the PS3 since it was so unpopular early on, but Wii and 360 likely only increased as the generation went on.

Hard to call multi-console owners casual or new audience.

 

Cross Platform play something he totally ignored and totally invalidates his theories in the first place.

This doesn't support your point.

~20% of Wii owners had multiple consoles;  ~80% did not own multiple consoles.

The 20% are likely to be core gamer / casual, while the 80% are likely to have more non-gamers, kids, and Nintendo only diehards.

The OP has a good point, and he doesn't have to be 100% accurate (neither are VGC, NPD, Nintendo surveys, etc.) he just has to have a good analysis.

You may wanna re-read that

26% of Wii owners owned 360, and 14% owned PS3.s

Which gives a range of 26% to 40% owning multiple consoles.

In otherwords... greater the 20%... off by a huge margin of error....

No matter the situation.

 

And it's likely higher up on the spectrum then lower, since it's somewhat pointless to own both a 360 and a PS3.

and doesn't even consider the fact that you know... there could be real gamers who just owned the Wii.

Which pretty much actually has to be the case.

I mean hell, people bought the gamecube.

In othewords his numbers of real gamers for the Wii is undeniably low by quite a bit.

and his prediction as far as gamers in general is likely actually way to high.  Ignoring all the cross platform ownership and upgrading due to new models/specs etc.

 

In otherwords, he didn't really spend a lot of time thinking about this... it's a pretty terrible analysis missing tons and tons of factors.