I think Nintendo will have a nice line up for the holiday season and then they reach the 10 million units.

because quite simply, the consumer that waits until year 7 (i think, didn't count) to buy a console isn't in the same market as the consumer that buys new consoles.   ps360's being sold today are pretty much A) replacement consoles or B) budget gamers that can't afford to buy hardware/software at high prices.

doesn't really matter how much the ps360 sells, the people buying them right now wouldn't consider the wiiU any more than they would consider the ps4 or xbone.

when will wii u hit 10 million?

j/k

I think you all are greatly underestimating the PS3/360 they will sell reasonably well for a while yet

Late holidays 2014 is my guess.

Also; for those saying the 360 and PS3 will remain relevant for much longer; they're both down about 55-65% yoy. And it's not like software and price cuts will have any kind of significant effect from here on out.
They probably have another 18-20 million left between them at best.

Good analysis, thanks. I want to add, that the Vita did't manage to increase sales in the second year and in my opinion the WiiU so far follows the sales pattern of the Vita. MK8 or DK may be a turning point, but I have my doubts. In any case, a 40% increase seems unlikely.

Did you know this? SMW3D is the only title the Wii U has in the top 20 this week. NSMBWiiU is thier only title from 20-36 spots, then you have Luigi Wii U @ 37, Wii U Party 42, Wii Fit U 60 spot. That's pretty much it as far as relevancy for the Wii U. 5 titles in the top 60. They are less than 10% relevant in home console software sales this week. Less than 10% of that software sales pie chart belongs to the Nintendo Wii U home console. That's not good! Especially after the holidays!! PS3+XBOX360 have still over half of that Pie Chart! If you doubled the WIi U software sales they'd still only have 16.33% of that pie chart, still pathetic if you care about making money in this gaming buisness.

Ok let us all grasp these numbers. The Wii U has a total of 5 titles in the top 60. Let me repeat that! 5 titles in the top 60 belong to the Wii U. After 2 holiday seasons.

The PS3+XBOX360 is who is dominating the current market, whether you like it or not. They have, let me go count them....22 games (14 for PS3 and 8 for XBOX360 in the top 60) The PS3 software this week is outselling the Wii U at 1 title short of 3X to 1 against the Wii U THIS WEEK compared to the Wii U. The XB360 is better than 1.5x software sales over the Wii U. Ok. Shouldn't the Wii U be competetive with the PS360 if as you claim "Also; for those saying the 360 and PS3 will remain relevant for much longer; they're both down about 55-65% yoy." 

Add up this weeks PS3/XBOX360 console sales, ok it's 105k total. Wii U has 42k total this week. That's 2.5X better console sales with 4X better software sales easily. This is current DATA.

Number for number PS3 console sales is 67k, and the Wii U 42k for console sales.

If you compare these 2 aspects you see that PS3/XBOX360 is completely destroying any chance of the Wii U becoming relevant in the home console arena anytime soon imho. You can hope and pray for MK8 or SSB or B2 or X or DKC. Yet the problem as I see it is...and they've great games don't get me wrong, but the flip side to that coin is they're ALL old IP's and the graphics on the Wii U are great compared to the Wii, but only par for the course compared to PS3/XBOX360. So I mean, I just don't know if these games will catch fire and pull the Wii U on a level to even compete with the PS3 this generation. The WIi U price is higher and the overall software library is less than appealing for the majority of the gaming world in comparison to either PS3 or 360. You can get a used PS3 for 157.99 on ebay buy it now. Wii U buy it nows are at 250.00 used. I think that's a problem, cost.

The data also shows if the PS3 keeps releasing next gen games with last gen graphics on the PS3, then the PS3 will be able to compete at same/better console sales, and over 2x the software sales against the Wii U.

The Wii U has a battle on its hand just in dethroning the PS3 in comparable sales obviously this year like last year, because they have very little 3rd party support STILL and the PS3 has massive 3rd party support even in 2014. That's not going to change this year, so Nintendo has to ramp up their 1st party or get owned again in sales for 2014 by the PS3. Factor in TLoU DLC, Dark Souls 2, FFXIIILR, Watchdogs will sell better on PS3 than Wii U by far, PS3 will have all the 2014 and 2015 sports titles released on it, and the the Wii U won't unless it's a Nintendo sports IP. The Wii U has basically no FPS and no Sports League games in the 2014 pipleine. They severly lack open world/sandbox titles as well. They severely lack JRPG/RPG titles, they severly lack fighting games too. They're lacking in so many area's! Guess what? No don't I'll clue you in... the PS3 has all these area's covered for 2014.

For the general consumer the games are NOT on the Wii U. But if you're a Mario fan then the Wii U can sway you. But COD fans, GTA fans, Minecraft fans, Uncharted/TLoU, JRPG/RPG fans, people with tighter financial budgets, fight fans, sports fans etc. will have a lot of reasons to stay with the PS3 and XBOX360. They're not jumping to the Wii U unless they have to much disposable income imho. The USA also has a 1% problem, and a 99% broke ass barely makin it demographic problem currently. So 99 percent of people have 1 gaming console to the other 1 percent that buy them all, or are just that addicted to gaming so their personality talks them into it regardless of sanity.

I love Mario just as much as the next guy..well maybe not that much but I do love the series overall, but it is the only draw currently on the Wii U. Sales reinforce that opinion as well. Nintendo is just spreading themselves to damn thin, and they're paying a huge price in the gaming pie chart department for conscientiously directly or indirectly limiting their game development.

This year will be tough, and they might underperform once again like they've always done with the Wii U. Which is honestly the best guess any sane person should/would be predicting imho. So imho they need "games" and they need a "price cut". Without both they might underperform and miss 10 million sales by the holidays.

That's how I currently see it, sprinkled with a little bit of factual evidence thrown in for fun and not make my words seem completely nutters. I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but you need a lot of hope for 2014 as a Wii U owner.

In the middle of december

I'm not sure how long you've been lurking or how well you know me as a member, but I'm not one that is known for having much faith in the Wii U. At all. Have you read the UNITY thread? If not; go read my posts there, that way you can get a good picture of where I stand on the Wii U's chances of becoming relevant in the console market.

That said; the PS3 and 360 are still crashing, the main thing one needs to realize here is that the Wii U is barely rising from a terribly low position while the PS3 and 360 are plummeting from a fairly high position, we're nearing the crossing point. Even if the Wii U is doing horribly and will likely continue doing horribly; the PS3 and 360 will not be relevant at all within a reasonably short amount of time (12-18 months is my guess).

One does not exclude the other; the 7th gen was artificially long, which is one of the primary reasons why the 8th gen started off at such a brisk pace and also among the primary reasons why the remaining field of the 7th gen is going to fall very quickly.

Ok sorry I thought you thought Wii U was about to blow up in popularity tommorrow or something with that prior post.

The more I look at numbers form this year and last year the more, and the more I think about the titles coming to the Wii U this year vs the PS3 and the PS3 install base. Well the more I think the Wii U will not take off till at least after 2015, and that's just if the PS3's 3rd partys decide to leave the PS3 100% for the PS4 which I highly doubt that will even happen for at least 2+ more years, possibly 4. So the WIi U's been out almost a year and a half and I see the PS3 surviving at least 2 years maybe 4.

The Wii U might need 4 years to get any traction imho. By then it might even be to late, maybe not though maybe that's when it has a decent library and price drop(s) and people buy it I'm not sure. But 1 thing is that people desire the PS4/XBOX1/PS3/XBOX360 A LOT more this year than the Wii U so far. I think that is even a very conservative place to stand. Because the only way the Wii U takes off this year is if all the games for it sell 1+million globally. And I think MK8 gets to 1 million easily like SM3DW has, DKC will take at least the whole year to get 1 mil I'd say even July 2015 could be a reasonable guess, Bayonetta2 will be extremely lucky to get 1 mil this year as well imho I'd say more like 250k-500k, X might get delayed, SSB should do a mil but when is the release date? 2015! perhaps at the rate Nintendo cranks out titles I wouldn't be shocked 1 bit. Will Hyrule Warriors sell good in US/UK? In Japan DW games usually easily do around that half a million on the PS3 in Japan after 6 months, yet when I look at the PS3 install base of close to 10 million where as the Wii U base is 1.6 million in Japan markets hmmm. I mean with those differences of PS3 more popular 5x+ to 1 in Japan, and DW8 looks fantastic on PS3 imho. Better than what I've seen of Hyrule Warriors imho. It also wouldn't surprise me if Hyrule Warriors sells just 100-200k in Japan by this year, maybe Link being in it gets it to 300k-500k worldwide, but Nintendo again has to do something BIG in that game. If it is less content then DW7 or 8 forget it, that is a long running series and I doubt they'll be fooled if HW comes up low in content/fun. That game needs very good controls/special moves/story/plot imho. I don't know if that will happen at all. It might have to compete with a more impressive Dynasty Warriors 9 on PS3/4. Ouch!

Basically MK8 is the only game that could possibly see SM3DW sales for the Wii U this year, and it could go either way more or less just not much difference because it IS the only game announced so far that WILL SELL guaranteed. Maybe if Nintendo pumps out commercials 24/7 of MK8 they can get a 2 million boost in sales of Wii U....I dunno haha. They've got 2 games this year, 2 BIG GAMES. SM3DW (I know 2014) and MK8, but that's how I see it there are only 2 MASS APPEAL games for the WIi U.

Now when it comes to HW, B2, DKTF, X those imho are not big games, they're big to hardcore gamers not casuals/MASSES Even myself, I will not buy a WIi U just for X and Bayonetta 2 at the Wii U's current price, and those are 8.0-9.0 games imho. I feel like if they can get 2 more BIG/HUGE GAMES out besides MK8, and a price cut they could tempt me and others. So far no, and I think that goes for millions of PS360 and PS4/X1 gamers.

They need MK8 and 2 other HUGE titles + a price drop to even hang in there this year with PS4/XB1 let alone PS360. Because if Nintendo can't even tempt me, no way in hell can they hope to tempt the masses. SM3DW and MK8 gives them life support for 6 months. They NEED 2 more titles like it in popularity to make it through the holidays, and SSB might not even see 2015 if you watch how Nintendo operates.

Oh I need to quit typing on this subject it gets me leaning negative, and I don't enjoy it. Peace.