Mummelmann said:
That said; the PS3 and 360 are still crashing, the main thing one needs to realize here is that the Wii U is barely rising from a terribly low position while the PS3 and 360 are plummeting from a fairly high position, we're nearing the crossing point. Even if the Wii U is doing horribly and will likely continue doing horribly; the PS3 and 360 will not be relevant at all within a reasonably short amount of time (12-18 months is my guess). One does not exclude the other; the 7th gen was artificially long, which is one of the primary reasons why the 8th gen started off at such a brisk pace and also among the primary reasons why the remaining field of the 7th gen is going to fall very quickly. |
Ok sorry I thought you thought Wii U was about to blow up in popularity tommorrow or something with that prior post.
The more I look at numbers form this year and last year the more, and the more I think about the titles coming to the Wii U this year vs the PS3 and the PS3 install base. Well the more I think the Wii U will not take off till at least after 2015, and that's just if the PS3's 3rd partys decide to leave the PS3 100% for the PS4 which I highly doubt that will even happen for at least 2+ more years, possibly 4. So the WIi U's been out almost a year and a half and I see the PS3 surviving at least 2 years maybe 4.
The Wii U might need 4 years to get any traction imho. By then it might even be to late, maybe not though maybe that's when it has a decent library and price drop(s) and people buy it I'm not sure. But 1 thing is that people desire the PS4/XBOX1/PS3/XBOX360 A LOT more this year than the Wii U so far. I think that is even a very conservative place to stand. Because the only way the Wii U takes off this year is if all the games for it sell 1+million globally. And I think MK8 gets to 1 million easily like SM3DW has, DKC will take at least the whole year to get 1 mil I'd say even July 2015 could be a reasonable guess, Bayonetta2 will be extremely lucky to get 1 mil this year as well imho I'd say more like 250k-500k, X might get delayed, SSB should do a mil but when is the release date? 2015! perhaps at the rate Nintendo cranks out titles I wouldn't be shocked 1 bit. Will Hyrule Warriors sell good in US/UK? In Japan DW games usually easily do around that half a million on the PS3 in Japan after 6 months, yet when I look at the PS3 install base of close to 10 million where as the Wii U base is 1.6 million in Japan markets hmmm. I mean with those differences of PS3 more popular 5x+ to 1 in Japan, and DW8 looks fantastic on PS3 imho. Better than what I've seen of Hyrule Warriors imho. It also wouldn't surprise me if Hyrule Warriors sells just 100-200k in Japan by this year, maybe Link being in it gets it to 300k-500k worldwide, but Nintendo again has to do something BIG in that game. If it is less content then DW7 or 8 forget it, that is a long running series and I doubt they'll be fooled if HW comes up low in content/fun. That game needs very good controls/special moves/story/plot imho. I don't know if that will happen at all. It might have to compete with a more impressive Dynasty Warriors 9 on PS3/4. Ouch!
Basically MK8 is the only game that could possibly see SM3DW sales for the Wii U this year, and it could go either way more or less just not much difference because it IS the only game announced so far that WILL SELL guaranteed. Maybe if Nintendo pumps out commercials 24/7 of MK8 they can get a 2 million boost in sales of Wii U....I dunno haha. They've got 2 games this year, 2 BIG GAMES. SM3DW (I know 2014) and MK8, but that's how I see it there are only 2 MASS APPEAL games for the WIi U.
Now when it comes to HW, B2, DKTF, X those imho are not big games, they're big to hardcore gamers not casuals/MASSES Even myself, I will not buy a WIi U just for X and Bayonetta 2 at the Wii U's current price, and those are 8.0-9.0 games imho. I feel like if they can get 2 more BIG/HUGE GAMES out besides MK8, and a price cut they could tempt me and others. So far no, and I think that goes for millions of PS360 and PS4/X1 gamers.
They need MK8 and 2 other HUGE titles + a price drop to even hang in there this year with PS4/XB1 let alone PS360. Because if Nintendo can't even tempt me, no way in hell can they hope to tempt the masses. SM3DW and MK8 gives them life support for 6 months. They NEED 2 more titles like it in popularity to make it through the holidays, and SSB might not even see 2015 if you watch how Nintendo operates.
Oh I need to quit typing on this subject it gets me leaning negative, and I don't enjoy it. Peace.
