Really didn't expect the PS4 to already outsell the 3DS. Especially with supply constraints and no Japan.
The PS4 outselling the 3DS without Japan impressive
| Shadow1980 said: Lot of bad drops all around. The XBO isn't doing so hot compared to the PS4 in Europe, though it's not doing too bad compared to the 360. After eight weeks the XBO has sold over 808k while the 360 sold nearly 678k, so it's had a better first two months than the 360 did. However, the XBO only sold 25k this week in Europe. The weeks of Jan. 7 and Jan. 14 2006 saw the 360 pull nearly 54k and over 67k, respectively, while in the 360's eighth week (Jan. 28 '06), it sold 48k. Not that that really means anything in either the short term or the long run. We don't know if the XBO will continue bleeding sales in the coming weeks; if it can stabilize at around 15-16k weekly by summer then it'll be fine. Looking further into the future, the XBO's predecessor showed that even with a relatively weak start, an Xbox system can mount a big comeback in the region. While the 360 wasn't exactly bombing in Europe, neither was it selling like hotcakes for its first couple of years. It wasn't performing nearly as well as it was in America, not to mention the PS3 had already almost tied it in LTD sales in the region by September of 2008, 33 months after the 360's release but only 18 months after the PS3 was released. Also, the 360 remained stagnant in that period, selling only 10% more units in 2007 than it did in 2006. However, in 2008 the 360 received a price cut that gave it a very solid stimulus in the region. The first, which was in March, greatly enhanced its baseline over 2007 (though it was still below the PS3's 2008 baseline), and the second, which was in September, actually pushed the 360 ahead of the PS3 for the holiday quarter that year, and the system ended up selling almost as well as the PS3 for the year as a whole. Overall, the 360 sold twice what it did in 2008 than what it did in 2007, and while it was still being outsold by the PS3 it managed to be a lot better than what one might have assumed six years ago. Instead of being outsold two-to-one by the PS3, it managed to keep the ratio at about 1.3:1. Not too shabby. Whether the XBO can manage a comparable performance against the PS4 in the region or it just gets crushed remains to be seen, but at this point anything is possible. As for the PS4, it's doing very well in Europe. While it's hard to make any meaningful comparisons between it and the PS3 given the former was a November launch and the latter a March launch, after seven weeks on the market the PS4 has sold 1.78 million, while the PS3 sold 853k. Also, the PS3 sold 32k units in its seventh week vs. nearly 82k for the PS4 this week. So, in launch-aligned terms it's doing far better than the PS3. Again, however, this is no guarantee of future success. Europe is historically "PlayStation Country" and I expect the PS4 to place first, but there's no guarantee it will stay at its current proportion to the PS3. There's a decent chance it could continue selling roughly double the PS3 both in the short term and long term, thus putting it ahead of even the mighty PS2, but we'll never know. For all we know, it could stall and only barely outsell the PS3. Moving along. It's still close in America between the PS4 and XBO, and one wonders how they will compare when supply is no longer an issue. However, while both systems have the best launches of any system ever and completely outclassed the launches of their predecessors by a roughly 3:1 ratio, this week doesn't compare as favorably against the comparable weeks following the PS3 and 360 launches. The weeks of Jan. 7 and Jan. 14 2006 saw the 360 sell under 48k and under 64k units while the week of Jan. 13 2007 saw the PS3 sell over 50k, while this week did see the XBO and PS4 sell 69k and 68k. Are they undertracked? What about supply's ability to keep up with demand? Are there any other factors at work? According to the NPD, the 360 sold 250k in Jan. '06 while the PS3 sold 244k Jan. '07. Will the PS4 and XBO only do as well as their predecessors in the short term, or could they end up pulling Wii- or PS2-level numbers? The same caveats that I applied to Europe still apply here. This is just one week's estimate, so we should wait a while before drawing any definite conclusions. Moving along to the Nintendo side of things, the Wii U is down YoY in Japan but up in America and Europe, more so in the former than the latter. The week of Jan. 12 last year saw the Wii U move a meager 12k units in the U.S., while it pushed 20k this week. The percentage drop over the previous week is down from last year as well at 31% vs. 47%. That's not much worse than the PS3 did (-26%) and better than what the Wii experienced (-56%) the week of Jan. 12, 2008. It's currently doing half of the Wii's numbers from Jan. '07, and if it keeps it up it could get to 100k for the month. If it can avoid continually bleeding out and stabilizes at or not too far below this week's numbers, it could have a far better January than it did last year. If DKC, gives it an even better February and MK8 has a similar effect on sales that MKWii did on the Wii's sales, then a rebound is quite possible for the Wii U in America, which is historically the most Nintendo-friendly region. The same cannot be said of Europe, though, as it's not up that much over last year. It didn't bleed out as much as last year (a 36% drop vs. a 48% drop the week of Jan. 12, 2013), but that's not saying much. This January might not be much better than last in Europe. If it can stabilize at 10k per week, it could do about 20% better, a moderate improvement in relative terms but still not great in absolute terms. Of course, I never expected much out of Europe in the first place. The Wii was the only non-handheld Nintendo system to do well in the region. The 3DS is also up YoY in America and Europe. However, last week was down YoY in Europe, meaning it had a substantially larger drop percentage-wise for Week 2, -58% vs. -45% last year. Fortunately, weekly sales stabilize very quickly, and if 2014 is anything like 2013 and 2012, it'll sit close to the 50-55k/week range. Meanwhile, in the U.S., it was also up YoY last week over the week of Jan. 5 last year, but the drop was still more pronounced this week than the week of Jan. 12 last year, 44% vs. 33%. But again, if 2014's sales curve is anything like 2013 or 2012, the 3DS could end up having a better January NPD than last year. If the 3DS manages to stay up YoY on average (key word being "if," as nothing is certain), then perhaps it hasn't quite peaked. As for Japan in regards to either the Wii U or 3DS, I'm withholding judgement for now. Sales there can be quite erratic. Week 2 is often pretty bad in terms of drops every year, but afterwards weekly sales can jump around wildly and unexpectedly. |
Excellent post!!!!
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
PS4 hype won't last long. Vita and Wii U not doing too well. PS3 now at 5 digit figures. Pretty bad week.
Estelle and Adol... best characters ever! XD
PSP ahead of 360 again, the little handheld was actually a bit of a beast.
An awful week. WiiU's sales dropped like a huge turd.
---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---
Somini said:
|
Hey, if the Wii-U was dominating PS2 style right now, we'd probably all have PS4s and Xbones with full BC and free online.
Well I guess Wii Fit U might be a slow burner. But if people were pinning their hopes on this getting the Wii casuals to hop over to Wii U it's not off to a very good start.
Not quite sure how PS4 and Xb one can be so close when PS4 seems to have sold considerably less software than Xb one. This suggests to me that PS4 sold a lot less HW than what the US chart shows, or Xb one sold a lot more. Or, I suppose because SW is less accurate than HW it could be that the SW numbers are out of whack. Whatever it is SW and HW don't gel for PS4/Xb one.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
Huge drops everywhere, as expected.
Interesting to see, PS4 first, thanks to Europe´s resistence to the XboxOne.....for the first time, the 3ds beaten.... I wonder if that will ever happen again.
Terrible numbers for Vita and WiiU. At least the WiiU drop was on par with the other new-gen consoles (31%) As for Vita...heck...44 % is just too much. Even after two years the PSP still outsell Vita in Europe (although only very very slightly)
As for Software, what a boring week in the US. The same games all over again
| kowenicki said: Happy to say my 50% down YOY for PS3 and 360 at least this year will also be true. They will die quicker than previous gens. |
Xbox only had one previous generation and it almost had an insta death. PS3 on the other hand will indeed die quicker than both of its predecessors.
I don't see PS3 having further downward adjustments. At 80 million shipped as of 2 Nov it would hav had to ship bugger all for 80.9 million to be over tracked.
Xb360 OTOH I can't recall what shipments are, but it hit 80 million before PS3, so it too would have had to ship bugger all units during the holidays for it to be on track, so I suspect you're right 360 should move up. I guess celebrations of PS3>360 were rather premature. I'm gonna say the technical victory has to go to 360 for having sold more than PS3 by the time the next gen had started, albeit with a 5 million + head start.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
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