A pointless argument? Yes, because you are clairvoyant and can see the furture. That must be it? Anyways, If you look at the "large support" Sony is receiving next year, it is from indie developers, not major 3rd party studios and one could say in comparison to even the likes of the Wii U, Vita has seen very little support. Hence, that is why I said "if you are considering" not "you are". Reading the comment properly will save you from embarrasement in the future.

I haven't ignored Japan and you haven't really provided a very intelligent argument whatsoever. You acting as if your assumptions are fact, which they are not. We are all going off assumptions about the state of the Vita to make an educated guess as to what exactly the sales will be. I'm using data from 1st full year of Vita sales to 2nd full year of Vita sales. In Japan that is Dec 11- Dec 12, Dec 12 - 13. Which as I debated earlier with others only had a marginal increase of 7%. I am predicting at best it might see another 15% for Dec 13- Dec 14 (peak year) and significantly drop after that. They are not going to keep a system that is moving abysmal numbers in E.U & U.S (at current decline rates Vita will be lucky to see 700K combined for both this year) while it is only managing to move another million and change in Japan so early in it's lifespan (Sony as we know relies on software to make up for hardware losses). The software sales are terrible for the most part. It is a money pit that really is not worth further investment for Sony hence why we have not heard any major 1st party releases. 

PS4 will not do anything whatsoever for Vita support. There was a minor bump but that is all you are going to see. Regardless of price drops the majorty of 3rd party will not risk investing in a console that has not proven itself, which the Vita has not. It's dead in the water. Your more likely to see 3rd parties jump on the Wii U ( which probably wont happen) before they begin to heavily invest in the Vita again. I'm not trying to be rude but your whole argument is based on wishful thinking, not even educated guesses.When you are selling a system at a loss, without significant software sales, you are burning cash. It's not difficult to comprehend. 

Regardless of how it performs, games will still be released. Dreamcast managed it as others did. Vita is the Dreamcast of handhelds and will have a difficult time managing to pass the LTD sales of GameGear. This whole argument is based on plausibilities. In the age we live in consoles/handhelds do not gain new life several years after release. 360 was an exception but that was due to an add on. Vita could very well outsell GameGear, but as someone earlier pointed out (unless I misread) 13-14 mill would be the most likely LTD sales at the end of it's lifetime.

If it makes you sleep better at night, lets say I'm clairvoyant, but now I totally expect you to bow to my limitless powers the moment Vita passes GameGear!

I've read the comment properly and still can't find myself refering to indies being strong support, hence I consider your argument about saving myself embarassment as just pityful and dramatic defence. Just stop.

We are all going off assumptions, but you taking 30% drops year after year for granted is the most ridiculous assumption made in this thread. Vita has already hit the rock bottom in NA - anything lower really won't make a difference WW, it's floating steadily in Europe and getting only hotter in Japan. It has a lot of room to grow as well, considering how 3DS seems to start to struggle and is down YoY. Killing Vita now just makes no sense. It won't give you the R&D money back and the console is doing all right in Japan and it's obvious that it's better to keep it alive and earning money in Japan, than killing it and not earning money at all.

I'm very sorry that basic logic kills all your arguments, but that's just the world we live in.

 i see where you are going with this, but I think many are not taking into accout the ways that Sony can penetrate the PSVita into the market!

Take for instance, if you were just counting the PSVita by itself that would be one thing, but Sony could indeed install a PSVita hardware into a LCD TV, the

PSVita TV has yet to release in the west yet.

They could indeed bundle the PSVita TV with a PS4 as a bundle maybe even for as low as $50.00 more in 2015 with a PS4.

all playstation Vita's contain the exact same cpu/gpu chipset so its formfactor may change but the software can run on all of them.

PSVita is Sony's ver of the

intel nuc htpc

or

Apple's   Apple TV

the fact that not even into the full 2nd year on the market Sony already had the PSVita TV ready to go, already talked about Playstation Suite right on stage day and date taking up event time for the NGP or PSVita as it is known now. the fact the PSVita TV was released so fact to the market just intime for Gaikai, and playstation Now investment, and you really think Sony invested all that money to pull any playstation Vita soon?

Better yet, is there any sign clear sign that the PSVita is being pulled fast like the PSPGo was or the Xperia Play? Not by Numer's but by a sheer number of retail outlets that refust to carry the PSVita? until that happens than its pretty much a moot point than.

Once again you make another idiotic statement without actually reading what I said. I even bolded it for you but I guess that was expecting to much. So this time I will write it in caps in the hopes that there is a modicum of brain activity going on.  I said "IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING" not "You Are" in regards to indies being considered as strong 3rd party support. Was it that difficult for you to properly read my comment? Seriously?

The Vita will not grow, if anything it's abhorrent market share with dwindle further in comparison to the 3DS. Killing Vita now would not make any sense. If it continues the same trend as I predict, they will put it out to to pasture  by end of next year in order cut further losses Why are they going to support a sinking ship when the PS4 is going to be heading into a difficult battle for lead market share against the Xbone  ( In N.A forthem ost part) over the next several years. The possible outcome I predicted is not ridiculous by any means whatsoever. To deny that there is a possibility of this is only lying to yourself. If it reasonable for analysts to call for the discontinuation of the Wii U by end of 2015, it is more than reasonable to do the same for Vita, which has far less compelling software coming out this year.

You claim you apply logic, yet you fail at every turn.  

This all relies on the "trend" you predict. However your trend is flawed, as 2014 has superior software to 2013.

Actually worldwide, Vita has more compelling software globally in 2014 than it did in 2013. Hence the belief that hardware sales in 2014 will be stronger than they were in 2013.

Look at the software (non indie) that was released in 2013... even Borderlands 2, Football Manager and the Japanese translations are superior.

Once again you make another idiotic statement without actually reading what I said. I even bolded it for you but I guess that was expecting to much. So this time I will write it in caps in the hopes that there is a modicum of brain activity going on.  I said "IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING" not "You Are" in regards to indies being considered as strong 3rd party support. Was it that difficult for you to properly read my comment? Seriously?

The Vita will not grow, if anything it's abhorrent market share with dwindle further in comparison to the 3DS. Killing Vita now would not make any sense. If it continues the same trend as I predict, they will put it out to to pasture  by end of next year in order cut further losses Why are they going to support a sinking ship when the PS4 is going to be heading into a difficult battle for lead market share against the Xbone  ( In N.A forthem ost part) over the next several years. The possible outcome I predicted is not ridiculous by any means whatsoever. To deny that there is a possibility of this is only lying to yourself. If it reasonable for analysts to call for the discontinuation of the Wii U by end of 2015, it is more than reasonable to do the same for Vita, which has far less compelling software coming out this year.

You claim you apply logic, yet you fail at every turn.  

According to alot of analysts and "apparent" experts on this site ( I say that with a heavy amount of sarcasm) Wii U will be discontinued by 2015! Therefore the same logic can obviously be applied to VIta. 

You cannot claim my way of presenting numbers are biased but state that yours are not. If sales from  Dec 13th - Dec 14 have a significant increase (more than 15% YoY) then I will agree that the Japan argument is invalid. However, I do not beleive that if the current drops remain in E.U/N.A and with this year being the peak year for Japan, that Sony would continue production with such little sales which is why I created this thread about the possibility of PSVita being discontinued before sales reach 11 million. I will admit that I stand corrected on the FF N.A vs Japan, however, PSP had a larger install base in  N.A than Japan whereas it is the opposite this time around with PS Vita (24% less). With the lack of sales, I do not forsee the N.A release matching Japan sales.

Development costs argument is not flawed if the software has difficulty reaching 1 million units. Killzone has several hundred thousand at this point in sales. Do you believe it has turned a profit? Also the Vita needs strong software sales in order to make it profitable, which is hasn't. Their losses are more than likely continuing to produce each console due to this. Uncharted is Sony's (correct  me if I'm wrong) 2nd biggest selling franchise when you factor in sales per game and that only managed 1 million while being heavily bundled after. Gran Turismo would sell decently but with the amout of time polyphony takes to develop a game, would the sales be enough to give them a decent profit margin? 

The Vita could surprise everyone and end up with 15mill sales before being discontinued, however as stated in my argument, I do not beleive that it is out of left field to see it being discontinued before it manages 11 mill. Unless, Sony are willing to further burn money and spend an enormous amount in remarketing it, which I don't believe they will.