Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

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Nirvana_Nut85 said:

A pointless argument? Yes, because you are clairvoyant and can see the furture. That must be it? Anyways, If you look at the "large support" Sony is receiving next year, it is from indie developers, not major 3rd party studios and one could say in comparison to even the likes of the Wii U, Vita has seen very little support. Hence, that is why I said "if you are considering" not "you are". Reading the comment properly will save you from embarrasement in the future.

I haven't ignored Japan and you haven't really provided a very intelligent argument whatsoever. You acting as if your assumptions are fact, which they are not. We are all going off assumptions about the state of the Vita to make an educated guess as to what exactly the sales will be. I'm using data from 1st full year of Vita sales to 2nd full year of Vita sales. In Japan that is Dec 11- Dec 12, Dec 12 - 13. Which as I debated earlier with others only had a marginal increase of 7%. I am predicting at best it might see another 15% for Dec 13- Dec 14 (peak year) and significantly drop after that. They are not going to keep a system that is moving abysmal numbers in E.U & U.S (at current decline rates Vita will be lucky to see 700K combined for both this year) while it is only managing to move another million and change in Japan so early in it's lifespan (Sony as we know relies on software to make up for hardware losses). The software sales are terrible for the most part. It is a money pit that really is not worth further investment for Sony hence why we have not heard any major 1st party releases. 

PS4 will not do anything whatsoever for Vita support. There was a minor bump but that is all you are going to see. Regardless of price drops the majorty of 3rd party will not risk investing in a console that has not proven itself, which the Vita has not. It's dead in the water. Your more likely to see 3rd parties jump on the Wii U ( which probably wont happen) before they begin to heavily invest in the Vita again. I'm not trying to be rude but your whole argument is based on wishful thinking, not even educated guesses.When you are selling a system at a loss, without significant software sales, you are burning cash. It's not difficult to comprehend. 

Regardless of how it performs, games will still be released. Dreamcast managed it as others did. Vita is the Dreamcast of handhelds and will have a difficult time managing to pass the LTD sales of GameGear. This whole argument is based on plausibilities. In the age we live in consoles/handhelds do not gain new life several years after release. 360 was an exception but that was due to an add on. Vita could very well outsell GameGear, but as someone earlier pointed out (unless I misread) 13-14 mill would be the most likely LTD sales at the end of it's lifetime.

If it makes you sleep better at night, lets say I'm clairvoyant, but now I totally expect you to bow to my limitless powers the moment Vita passes GameGear!

I've read the comment properly and still can't find myself refering to indies being strong support, hence I consider your argument about saving myself embarassment as just pityful and dramatic defence. Just stop.

We are all going off assumptions, but you taking 30% drops year after year for granted is the most ridiculous assumption made in this thread. Vita has already hit the rock bottom in NA - anything lower really won't make a difference WW, it's floating steadily in Europe and getting only hotter in Japan. It has a lot of room to grow as well, considering how 3DS seems to start to struggle and is down YoY. Killing Vita now just makes no sense. It won't give you the R&D money back and the console is doing all right in Japan and it's obvious that it's better to keep it alive and earning money in Japan, than killing it and not earning money at all.

I'm very sorry that basic logic kills all your arguments, but that's just the world we live in.