"...it is a marathon not a sprint."
Do you know how many times this has been said? I think we need to come up with something else because people still can't seem to get it through their heads, sadly.
"...it is a marathon not a sprint."
Do you know how many times this has been said? I think we need to come up with something else because people still can't seem to get it through their heads, sadly.
| ioi said: Simple, the markets in which PlayStation is strongest have a later generation cycle than what we'd traditionally think of as the core markets. In the USA, Canada, UK, Australia, France, Germany last gen has been on the decline for a long time and in most of those markets (France and Germany being the exceptions) Xbox is a stronger brand so has seen more of a decline. Most of the current PS3 sales are coming from Latin America, Spain, Italy, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Asia - regions that peak 2-3 years later than everywhere else. This is why PS2 was still selling decents amounts every year until recently despite being dead in the "main" markets. This is actually another point entirely and if Nintendo / MS can get a decent presence in these markets where Sony has always enjoyed a strong foothold then they have a real chance to make ground this gen. |
Do you think Nintendo could ever possibly be able to branch out? As has been said, Nintendo is a smaller company when compared to Microsoft or even Sony, in physical terms. (As in, their global impact.) Do you think Nintendo might not have enough power to be able to carry out a more widespread blanket of markets?
ioi said:
Simple, the markets in which PlayStation is strongest have a later generation cycle than what we'd traditionally think of as the core markets. In the USA, Canada, UK, Australia, France, Germany last gen has been on the decline for a long time and in most of those markets (France and Germany being the exceptions) Xbox is a stronger brand so has seen more of a decline. Most of the current PS3 sales are coming from Latin America, Spain, Italy, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Asia - regions that peak 2-3 years later than everywhere else. This is why PS2 was still selling decents amounts every year until recently despite being dead in the "main" markets. This is actually another point entirely and if Nintendo / MS can get a decent presence in these markets where Sony has always enjoyed a strong foothold then they have a real chance to make ground this gen. |
There was a 20 million gap between the PS3 and the Wii/360 in gaming largest market. The 360 one year lead, the PS3's initial price point, lack of exclusive (including timed) and the Wii fad helped regulate the PS3 to last place. Already in a month and a half the PS4 has captured 10% of those PS3 sales with an anemic lineup and $399 price tag. We are already seeing Sony make up significant ground in a region it did extrmemly poor in and remain strong in regions its always have been. How are Nintendo and MS going to make up ground when Sony can match them step for step?


ioi said:
Yeah. I said their biggest mistake was to assume those previous mega-hits will still work today but their second biggest is with their hardware. Most people have no interest in the 3D element of the 3DS (the 2DS is what the platform should always have been IMO) and with Wii U they know they need to do something to compete with tablets but don't really know what? Once they get it right and get the right software for Wii U (or some kind of successor / spinoff) and release some hardware-selling software then they may see some success again. With both 3DS and Wii U, Nintendo released a new hardware element (3D and tablet) like they had the gen before (dua +l touch screen and motion control) but no software to show it off and make it a must-have. Until they can figure out the point of the Wii U tablet controller then nobody is going to buy it - simple as that! If they can, and convince the casual public why they need it like they did with motion controls - then they could turn things around enormously but at the moment that is looking unlikely... They need the same approach as last gen but something that is innovative and new today instead of just recycling what was new 6-7 years ago. |
So i made a general prediction for the 8th gen
|
|
Xbox One |
Playstation 4 |
WII U |
NINTENDO TAB |
Total NEW hardware sales |
|
2012 |
0 |
0 |
2.200.000 |
0 |
2.200.000 |
|
2013 |
2.100.000 |
3.500.000 |
3.000.000 |
0 |
8.600.000 |
|
2014 |
7.900.000 |
13.000.000 |
6.000.000 |
0 |
26.900.000 |
|
2015 |
14.000.000 |
13.500.000 |
5.500.000 |
0 |
33.000.000 |
|
2016 |
13.500.000 |
13.000.000 |
5.000.000 |
0 |
31.500.000 |
|
2017 |
12.500.000 |
13.500.000 |
2.000.000 |
12.000.000 |
40.000.000 |
|
2018 |
11.000.000 |
12.500.000 |
0 |
18.000.000 |
41.500.000 |
|
2019 |
11.500.000 |
12.000.000 |
0 |
19.000.000 |
42.500.000 |
|
2020 |
9.000.000 |
10.000.000 |
0 |
19.500.000 |
38.500.000 |
|
TOTALS |
81.500.000 |
91.000.000 |
23.700.000 |
68.500.000 |
Note one:
I expect that Nintendo will follow up the wii u with a different console end 2016 ( wii 2 a.k.a. nintendo tab. higher sales due to the fact tablets have a much bigger target audience )
Note two:
Sony currently looks like to be #1 during the 8th gen
Note three:
Microsoft will once again build a solid userbase, but will lose the "war" with around 9 million unit difference
Care to make a general prediction yourself? 
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Hey ioi made a thread. What is it 2007 again? :P
Clearly your OP is all true. However, you are making the premise that the casual/mass market wants another console beyond their dabbling in Wii and to a lesser extent Kinect.
I'm thinking they simply don't. Their need from gaming is being massively cared for from the mobile market.
Of course one game can rule them all. At this point Nintendo and others are trying to do that with games that have already had their peak and are very unlikely to repeat.
At this time, I see this gen riding on the backs of core market. PS4 with a major lead, then xbone/wiiu battling for last place.
ioi said:
What? You really don't listen to what I actually say. It doesn't matter what region the data represents, the same trends occur in every market. I'm not using data from one region to represent another region - I'm just using some actual data to illustrate a trend rather than just making it with no basis. I could show you multiple examples in every region of the same thing. Actually, Xbox 360 outsold Wii in year 9 (according to NPD as you can clearly see in the graph) so that goes exactly against your point. If you look at year 2 on that graph - then Xbox 1 had sold more at that point than PS3 and Xbox 360. And yet 360 ultimately ended up selling 3 times as much in that region. That is the point that is being made here - it is a marathon not a sprint and early sales don't guarantee anything. |
Didnt Nintendo already move on to the next gen when 360 caught the wii ? (my dates might be of) casue if so then 360 caught up more by the virtue that nintendo already had given up on the Wii then anything esle. Unless you mean one day Sony will stop PS4 support but MS consinue theres till it surpasses PS4, other wise 360 eveantually surpassing the wii is quite irrelevent. As Sony is known to support their consoles the longest.
Plus wasent wii heavly front loaded selling most early years ? then the hardware limitains become more and more apperant and the waggle fad started losing steam and the HD twins prices came down to a much more mass apealing level.
Also of couse 360 surpased xbox, MS is still supporting 360 while they gave up on Xbox after 4/5 years. So what does that prove ?
JoeTheBro said:
If your father is just interested in talking to the tv, wouldn't he be far more likely to get the comcast x1 or another cable box that does that? The X1 is only $50-$100 if you already have cable. It doesn't sound like he's interested in gaming, so even at $400 Microsoft would have a really hard time selling to this crowd. |
You are right somwhat, but still missing the point. The point is that it is a selling feature that appeals to non gamers or casual gamers. Im sure if i showed him a fishing game or a card game on the x1 he would like that as well. Consumers may be able to get a device that does something similar for cheaper, but the point of the x1 is combine everything into one device.
the boffins at these gaming headquarters better get working then for that big hitting experience,the phone/tablet market is so massively popular now it is hard to see them noticing our consoles,i think the "media box" is the best effort to get into every lounge off the bat,microsoft are in a good position and maybe they can get a kinect experience that has the wow factor for the casuals,price and games will be as important as ever
ms & sony are basically subscriptions now too aren't they,i know everything is media/phone/internet wise but you have to be dedicated to give a monthly to console companies unless they start tying it in with other services
I know 3 of those are my x360 purchases bc of RROD. I wonder what the true number is? Just curious? This gen has gone alot better minus the network headaches and lack of features.
Train wreck said:
There was a 20 million gap between the PS3 and the Wii/360 in gaming largest market. The 360 one year lead, the PS3's initial price point, lack of exclusive (including timed) and the Wii fad helped regulate the PS3 to last place. Already in a month and a half the PS4 has captured 10% of those PS3 sales with an anemic lineup and $399 price tag. We are already seeing Sony make up significant ground in a region it did extrmemly poor in and remain strong in regions its always have been. How are Nintendo and MS going to make up ground when Sony can match them step for step? |
it all depends on what games and features they come up with/price drops etc,etc. anything is possible. ps3 turned it around and made up alot of ground,from were it first started. Nintendo and MS can do the samething.