I finally did read you post, I am sorry for having posted before reading it but I was running out for dinner with my family. Anyway after reading your post nothing really changed. I still feel the same way I felt before about how you guys handle NDP data.

Basically, in your post it feels you are trying to explain why their data might be wrong. Their data is not wrong, even Microsoft (the biggest loser in January) already did a press release blaming shortages. The NDP data is accepted by everyone: Sony, MS, Nintendo, the press, the north american gamers, everyone. Why can't you accept it?

 What other option does everyone have?  They either accept the only option and respond with their take on the numbers or they sit idle while everyone else does.  As for being wrong or right, they are estimates just as much as VGChartz estimates.  They both get adjusted after initial release if new data suggests they should be changed, but only paid subscribers get word of the adjustments.  These adjustments aren't even reflected in the next month's report, so even LTD numbers(which are merely the sums of monthly numbers) are most likely off due to the unknown adjustments.  Accepting the numbers would require being able to follow any adjustments, which can't be done.

IMO, you should use NDP's data as valid input to make this site even better and not treat it as dubious or wrong. If NDP is wrong with over 50% data sample how the f*** can you guys be right with less than 2% and no representation from big retailers? I can tell you the BestBuy next to me sold a lot of PS3's last month (a lot more than Wiis or 360s). I can also tell you they had no PSP or DS at all for at least 2 full weeks (so DS shortages could be real in some places). But they had 360s in stock though (most were Halo/Arcade though).

Media-Create and Famitsu both cover even larger segments of the market, yet their numbers are often times not the same.  Does that make one of them wrong, or even both of them wrong?  Your anecdotal evidence is not data.  The BestBuy near me sold a lot of 360's, but there were lots of PS3s in stock.

Like I said in my previous post, I like this site, and will surely continue to be a regular member but like everyone else I trust NDP data. For me those numbers will always be the "official" numbers as long as MS, Sony or Nintendo accept them. I just feel a little sad when you guys try to come up with excuses why NDP numbers can be wrong...

Anyway I would like to congratulate all of you guys (ioi and co). You guys work hard and do a great job with this site. But you can do even better if you use the NDP numbers as input to your own data. And I do not mean to only adjust past data (like the January sales) but also to report weekly sales in the future. If we are to believe MS, then the PS3 will beat the 360 again this month since their shortages are expected "through February" but this fact is still not represented on last week's data. According to you guys the 360 sold 90k last week, even with shortages. That is almost half of what they sold in the whole month on January... really hard to believe after seeing the NDP data and reading MS talk about their own hardware shortages.

Just think about this: NDP actually identified that PS3 outsold the 360 when everyone else expected otherwise. A few days before NDP data was out MS was already talking about "shortages"... seems to me NDP does have a good sample. Doesn't it?

Last January(2007) according to NPD 294,000(note this number may have been adjusted) 360s were sold in 5 weeks.  If this were a 4-week period that number would have been around 235,000, quite close to the 230,000 which was reported for January 2008.  Yes more games are out so we might expect higher sales, but the system has also yet to receive a substantial price cut for over 2 years so its likely most of the consumers willing to buy 360s at their current prices are drying up.

If there were shortages I'd actually expect the number to be a bit lower.  Think about it from a spin position, a pre-emptive declaration of shortages is a win-win.  If the numbers show they were outsold then they have a "we told you so" excuse.  If the numbers show they were still on top then they have can exclaim a mighty "and we even could've done much better!"  I find it fishy that a product that has been on the market for so long suddenly has supply issues when demand hasn't really changed.