The current trajectory being the 3DS being down YOY in shipments (every Q this year). That is what I meant, I already explained that in the thread.

So you used a different data-point, that still has 3DS above PSP in current shipment and shows only sloght decrease so it still stays above yearly shipments compared with PSP in it's prime years. Weak data to project a trajectory that let it sell worse than PSP. But, let's wait and see.

As I don't think Pezus will bump it if 3DS overtakes PSP, but only if it falls short, I will bookmark this thread too. And for the record: I personally have no idea about the outcome.

The PSP will get discontinued in 2016 probably if it goes like PS2. So it still has around 3-4 million more sales and a total around 85m. I don't see 3DS doing more than 85-87m so it will probably reach the PSP and if it does manages to pass it, it won't be by much.

unless sales suddenly drop to 0... no

MAYBE...

what games could push 3ds?

pokemon z?

ssb?

metroid?

i wonder what will be the next console pusher game... like animal crossing, 3d land, nsmb2, mk7, pokemon x and y and zelda game???? is it time for a pikmin remake for 3ds?

No I was talking strictly 3DS, not compared to PSP anything. If 3DS continues the trajectory of being down YoY I don't think it'll beat PSP. Pretty simple premise!

Fourth year, we'll say 3DS does less than year 3.  Current aligned totals after 3 are 31.9M for PSP and 42.5M for 3DS.    For PSP to start to have a higher trajectory after year 4, 3DS will need to sell less than 3.4M.  While it might sell less than the already stated 14.7 million, I doubt it's going to plummet all the way down to 3.4 million.  So the trajectory stays above PSP unless something very dramatic happens.

Pezus projections added for future reference.

Bravely Default

One Piece: Romance Dawn

(2) Professor Layton games

Yoshi's New Island

Pokemon Bank

Conception II

Mario Golf

Super Smash Bros.

Kirby: Triple Deluxe

Disney Magical World

Several LEGO games

*plus any unannounced games (that's what Nintendo Direct does so well)

Some of these games are bigger than others, but they will all help push solid sales in multiple regions.  I see the 3DS as a system that will not die off quickly.  Sort of what happened with the PS360, and who saw those systems selling more than 80 million after only 3 years of release?  There is absolutely no way to say with any amount of certainty that it can't end up selling more than 100M units by its end.  It could still be around and selling more than 10 years on the market.  Nintendo handhelds often do unexpected sales, history has taught us that.

All those combined could only wish for Pokemon sales. None of those are appealing to mass market.

DS died off pretty fast, 3DS is less popular. Sales are down YOY. 3DS aint lasting 10 years.

I think you may be right. Also, they are merging handheld and home console engineers in the same building. The wii U itself could be the next handheld, since it is still possible to shrink the 40nm transistors and, in the end, may fit in the gamepad itself. In that case the 3DS would still be on the market for a long time (at least 4 years).