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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can 3DS outsell PSP (lifetime)?

 

Which handheld will end up with more sales (lifetime)?

PSP 69 10.27%
 
3DS 522 77.68%
 
About even 81 12.05%
 
Total:672
sonicfan1373 on 12 January 2014

I personally think that like the GBA, Nintendo will announce and release its successor sooner which I personally believe will be a smart + dedicated hybrid of sorts. Of course it could be a revision of the current 3DS which means that its sales will still count towards the 3DS, or it could be a new console that is backwards compatible. However, assuming Nintendo releases a new system between 2015-2016 (which is my personal prediction) then I believe that the 3DS will sell around 65-75 million units in its life time, coming short of PSP.



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Viktor on 12 January 2014

Yes, it will sell more unless the successor will be launched too early. While PSP continued to sell well in Japan, PSPs sales pretty much plummeted in Europe and especially the USA when it got to halfway of its lifecycle.



DonFerrari on 12 January 2014
pezus said:
DonFerrari said:
pezus said:

Interesting poll results...lol

 

Which handheld will end up with more sales (lifetime)?
PSP 32 9.44%
 
3DS 265 78.17%
 
About even 42 12.39%
 
Total: 339

 

This thread should be a good bump in the future.

Remember to save it so we can have good laughs one way or another.

Everyone should just make an effort to remember this thread. I never remember to check my bookmarks ;(

Me too... but I have a great memory and always remember to flush things on people face.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 12 January 2014
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:


You could have just commented on the main point I was making.

the is nothing extraordinary about this decline

handhelds are in massive decline.  Vita is the epitome. 3DS illustrates it too. 

Yeah, but this thread isn't so much about the reason for the decline but rather a simple question: Will 3DS outsell PSP or not?

Thats what I said.  Its divisive.

...ok?

Divide and conquer, they say.


I would say dominate the market and decimate =]



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

TheShape31 on 12 January 2014
Seece said:
TheShape31 said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251448/3ds-vs-dsvgchartz-gap-chartsnovember-2013-update/

3DS has sold roughly 80% what the original DS did in the same period of time (3 years).

So if NDS has sold 155M total, then that puts 3DS near 125M. That's where I'd imagine it'll end up, especially with some huge software titles coming up this year.

So obviously 3DS beats PSP.

No offense but that's some really rough analysis on your part.

In 13 Q's on the market 3DS will have shipped 43 - 44m, DS shipped 65m. At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%.

3DS has been out for 35 months, and in that time has literally sold 80% of what NDS did during that period.  I linked to these numbers.  What reason would it not continue on the same trend, especially considering the extremely low sales numbers for 3DS post launch.  

You, on the other hand, seem to be making numbers up out of thin air.  Where are your sources for 65M vs. 44M during the exact same period since launch?  Just an FYI, even if your numbers are close (which I don't think they are), 44M is not 50% of 65M.  Talk about rough analysis...



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Seece on 12 January 2014
TheShape31 said:
Seece said:
TheShape31 said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251448/3ds-vs-dsvgchartz-gap-chartsnovember-2013-update/

3DS has sold roughly 80% what the original DS did in the same period of time (3 years).

So if NDS has sold 155M total, then that puts 3DS near 125M. That's where I'd imagine it'll end up, especially with some huge software titles coming up this year.

So obviously 3DS beats PSP.

No offense but that's some really rough analysis on your part.

In 13 Q's on the market 3DS will have shipped 43 - 44m, DS shipped 65m. At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%.

3DS has been out for 35 months, and in that time has literally sold 80% of what NDS did during that period.  I linked to these numbers.  What reason would it not continue on the same trend, especially considering the extremely low sales numbers for 3DS post launch.  

You, on the other hand, seem to be making numbers up out of thin air.  Where are your sources for 65M vs. 44M during the exact same period since launch?  Just an FYI, even if your numbers are close (which I don't think they are), 44M is not 50% of 65M.  Talk about rough analysis...

Shipments. Doesn't get anymore factual than that. You know why your analysis is so bad? DS launched in a holiday Q, which means you comparing 3DS vs DS at 35 months is omitting the oncoming DS holiday was 11m. In less than 6 months alligned launch will jump massively in DS's favour.

Can you not read? I clearly said "At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%." Not 44m is 50% of 65m.

So yeah, rough analysis on your part. Everybody is aware of how much 3DS is flagging DS, it's certainly not 80% like your botched figures suggest.

First 3 full years for 3DS

14.58 14.81 5.13 (plus 6.5 - 8m  to come) = 11.5 - 13m.



First 4 full years for DS

11.59 21.18 29.18 31.43


It's seriously lagging.



 

Alby_da_Wolf on 12 January 2014
DonFerrari said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:


You could have just commented on the main point I was making.

the is nothing extraordinary about this decline

handhelds are in massive decline.  Vita is the epitome. 3DS illustrates it too. 

Yeah, but this thread isn't so much about the reason for the decline but rather a simple question: Will 3DS outsell PSP or not?

Thats what I said.  Its divisive.

...ok?

Divide and conquer, they say.


I would say dominate the market and decimate =]

Tsk, decimate is for wimps.





Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


DonFerrari on 12 January 2014
Alby_da_Wolf said:
DonFerrari said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:


You could have just commented on the main point I was making.

the is nothing extraordinary about this decline

handhelds are in massive decline.  Vita is the epitome. 3DS illustrates it too. 

Yeah, but this thread isn't so much about the reason for the decline but rather a simple question: Will 3DS outsell PSP or not?

Thats what I said.  Its divisive.

...ok?

Divide and conquer, they say.


I would say dominate the market and decimate =]

Tsk, decimate is for wimps.


Good... obliteration isn't fashionable.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DevilRising on 12 January 2014
brendude13 said:
I think it'll fall slightly short.

The 3DS seems to have peaked, and there aren't that many system sellers on the horizon. It's doing relatively similar to the PSP at the same point in its lifetime, and the PSP had incredible legs outside of the US.


Because you've seen every future unnannounced game that will come out for it, and can verify this?

 

It'll likely have many more system sellers dude.



TheShape31 on 12 January 2014
Seece said:
TheShape31 said:
Seece said:
TheShape31 said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251448/3ds-vs-dsvgchartz-gap-chartsnovember-2013-update/

3DS has sold roughly 80% what the original DS did in the same period of time (3 years).

So if NDS has sold 155M total, then that puts 3DS near 125M. That's where I'd imagine it'll end up, especially with some huge software titles coming up this year.

So obviously 3DS beats PSP.

No offense but that's some really rough analysis on your part.

In 13 Q's on the market 3DS will have shipped 43 - 44m, DS shipped 65m. At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%.

3DS has been out for 35 months, and in that time has literally sold 80% of what NDS did during that period.  I linked to these numbers.  What reason would it not continue on the same trend, especially considering the extremely low sales numbers for 3DS post launch.  

You, on the other hand, seem to be making numbers up out of thin air.  Where are your sources for 65M vs. 44M during the exact same period since launch?  Just an FYI, even if your numbers are close (which I don't think they are), 44M is not 50% of 65M.  Talk about rough analysis...

Shipments. Doesn't get anymore factual than that. You know why your analysis is so bad? DS launched in a holiday Q, which means you comparing 3DS vs DS at 35 months is omitting the oncoming DS holiday was 11m. In less than 6 months alligned launch will jump massively in DS's favour.

Can you not read? I clearly said "At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%." Not 44m is 50% of 65m.

So yeah, rough analysis on your part. Everybody is aware of how much 3DS is flagging DS, it's certainly not 80% like your botched figures suggest.

First 3 full years for 3DS

14.58 14.81 5.13 (plus 6.5 - 8m  to come) = 11.5 - 13m.



First 4 full years for DS

11.59 21.18 29.18 31.43


It's seriously lagging.

I'm not using botched figures, it's 1:1 month-to-month.  3DS has sold 80% of what NDS has as far as November (month 34), regardless of what time of year they each system launched.  And considering that the 3DS was released in February/March (as opposed to NDS in September), the fact that it's sold 80% of what NDS did is quite remarkable.  And just because I misinterpreted what you said about the 50% comment, it doesn't mean that I can't be correct in the end.  Do you know what will happen to 3DS sales next year with so many big games coming out?  Of course you don't.  You know, people said that 3DS was dead before it picked up incredible numbers and challenged its predecessor.  Just because it hasn't hit as high of sales in a single year doesn't mean that it won't eventually come close.  Or that it could continue selling for years further than the NDS.  Truly anything is possible at this point, and either of us could be right.  There is no predicting the future, and you could end up being way off even if you feel you make the best analysis out of the bunch of us.  So we'll see in a few years who's closer, good luck.