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TheShape31 on 12 January 2014
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Seece said:
TheShape31 said:
Seece said:
TheShape31 said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251448/3ds-vs-dsvgchartz-gap-chartsnovember-2013-update/

3DS has sold roughly 80% what the original DS did in the same period of time (3 years).

So if NDS has sold 155M total, then that puts 3DS near 125M. That's where I'd imagine it'll end up, especially with some huge software titles coming up this year.

So obviously 3DS beats PSP.

No offense but that's some really rough analysis on your part.

In 13 Q's on the market 3DS will have shipped 43 - 44m, DS shipped 65m. At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%.

3DS has been out for 35 months, and in that time has literally sold 80% of what NDS did during that period.  I linked to these numbers.  What reason would it not continue on the same trend, especially considering the extremely low sales numbers for 3DS post launch.  

You, on the other hand, seem to be making numbers up out of thin air.  Where are your sources for 65M vs. 44M during the exact same period since launch?  Just an FYI, even if your numbers are close (which I don't think they are), 44M is not 50% of 65M.  Talk about rough analysis...

Shipments. Doesn't get anymore factual than that. You know why your analysis is so bad? DS launched in a holiday Q, which means you comparing 3DS vs DS at 35 months is omitting the oncoming DS holiday was 11m. In less than 6 months alligned launch will jump massively in DS's favour.

Can you not read? I clearly said "At this point forwards DS started doing 30m a year, 3DS is struggling to achieve 50% of that, let alone 80%." Not 44m is 50% of 65m.

So yeah, rough analysis on your part. Everybody is aware of how much 3DS is flagging DS, it's certainly not 80% like your botched figures suggest.

First 3 full years for 3DS

14.58 14.81 5.13 (plus 6.5 - 8m  to come) = 11.5 - 13m.



First 4 full years for DS

11.59 21.18 29.18 31.43


It's seriously lagging.

I'm not using botched figures, it's 1:1 month-to-month.  3DS has sold 80% of what NDS has as far as November (month 34), regardless of what time of year they each system launched.  And considering that the 3DS was released in February/March (as opposed to NDS in September), the fact that it's sold 80% of what NDS did is quite remarkable.  And just because I misinterpreted what you said about the 50% comment, it doesn't mean that I can't be correct in the end.  Do you know what will happen to 3DS sales next year with so many big games coming out?  Of course you don't.  You know, people said that 3DS was dead before it picked up incredible numbers and challenged its predecessor.  Just because it hasn't hit as high of sales in a single year doesn't mean that it won't eventually come close.  Or that it could continue selling for years further than the NDS.  Truly anything is possible at this point, and either of us could be right.  There is no predicting the future, and you could end up being way off even if you feel you make the best analysis out of the bunch of us.  So we'll see in a few years who's closer, good luck.