Once again you're uninformed, first party games net Sony around $40 a copy, and why isn't it possible for Killzone's budget to be only 40M? And why are you running with that clearly overblown and guessed Saint's Row budget? Your argument makes 0 sense.

Don't worry about Sony's 1st party games. I mean, God of War III, Uncharted 2/3 and LittleBigPlanet all sold 5-6m. GT5 sold 10m+. That's 5 huge 1st party games right there and The Last of Us is also going to sell 5-6m. Then you have all the 2-4m sellers like Killzone 2/3, Infamous, Uncharted 1, Heavy Rain, LBP2, GT6, Motorstorm, Resistance 1/2 etc.

Most video games don't need to sell as much as you think to break even or make profit. Take God of War: Ascension for example, it cost about the same to develop as God of War III at $44 million (total budget) and even though it sold about 2m by the end of December 2013, which is only half as much as God of War III achieved in the same amount of time, it still made all its money back and then some.

Look at this GFK data for European software sales and revenue from January to June 2013: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=668021

As you can see in the case of Sony's God of War: Ascension it made over $35 million by June in Europe alone, when you consider that it sold twice as much in the US and then factor in Japan and the rest of the world it made roughly $130 million by June 2013 and only cost Sony around $40 million. If you fast forward to December 2013 it's now sold roughly 2m and made $170m+ or around $130m+ in profit. I don't know how much of the revenue Sony actually get but I'm guessing it's a good majority of it and they are making a heck of a lot of money.

So if even God of War: Ascension made that much money just imagine how much all the really big 5/6m+ exclusive games made? The 2-4 million sellers are making huge money and Sony has plenty of those as well as all their 1m+ sellers like Heavenly Sword, Infamous 2, Resistance 3, Beyond Two Souls, Ratchet & Clank games etc. So again, don't worry about Sony's 1st party, they are doing brilliantly and will only go from strength to strength on the PS4.

Shame about the Splinter Cell series, I loved Chaos Theory but Double Agent and Conviction just wern't that good and so I never even tried Blacklist.

I think you're underestimating the amount of money SONY makes on a 1st party sale and overestimating the cost of getting a game out of a store and into the hands of a consumer. Look at Heavy Rain for example. that was a well marketted game with AAA production value. Development and marketting are the too biggest chunks of the budget and in total that was just over $52M for SONY. They only spent about $30.4M on the ads and that was a very well advertised game by SONY standards. The game hasn't even hit 3M yet it's put out $180M+ $130M+ in revenue for SONY.  Killzone did significanly better sales wise and Gran Turismo 5 sold at least 5-6M at full price. 

On top of the money the make on first party, you've got third party royalty fees that help them out. The bulk of Playstation's financial woes are really just tied to hardware sales. Selling a console and praying for a strong attach ratio in the early years to keep you financially healthy just isn't an awesome business model. SONY and Microsoft have proven that on a number of occassions now. 

A lot of these 3rd parties like Rockstar and THQ are operating really inefficiently or doing something else seriously wrong.  You would think they would be much more strict about this seeing as they make less than a first party publisher with each sale. I'm still trying to wrap my head around Modern Warfare2 costing Activision $40M+ in development alone. Then you have these summer blockbuster movie industry styled marketting strategies with costs in the 100s of millions to get their games featured in a commercial every 5-10mins and featured on cans for multiple brands of soda. It's not even optional. They've got to do this to make sure the game sells and actually makes up it's already crazy cost.

EDITED

Either way or another, it´s an unsustainable situation. If a franchise is only manageable if it sells more than 5 million, a number that very, very few games achieve, then someone is not  paying attention to the signs of the market.  The AAA paradigm is not sustainable anymore

Out of all users I didn't expect such an experienced one to make such a comment.

We know that he took the sales of the game, multiplied it by the full price of one unit and then told everyone that this is the amount Sony got in the end.
Proof:

At the time Heavy Rain didn't even ship 3m units (that happened in August), so maybe 2.9m shipped and 2.8m sold.
He said Sony made over 100m € with it. So $130m is the bare minimum he was talking about.
Sony gets according to him: $130m / 2.8m = $46.4 per game (minimum)
That's not even possible IF all 2.8m units were sold at full price. In realtity not even half of that were sold at full price.

Therefore he must have used $60 or the equivalent European recommended retail price without taxes.

I did the calculation two times before I think and I came to the conclusion that it made a profit of around $30m or so. Can't fully remember.