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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

Mystro-Sama on 02 January 2014

Can we all just come to an agreement to not bring Pachter predictions this place.

He's almost always wrong and when he isn't he predicted something blatantly obvious.



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Max King of the Wild on 02 January 2014
Dark_Feanor said


Well, "Needs to do" and  "Is doing" are very different thing. 

The first is a opinion based on VGChartz numbers, and the second is a thing that only Sony insider or the suply chain would know.

Any way, I don´t think the damand for the PS4 is that high, it´s out-sold every where but the prices at grey market and auction houses aren´t rising. 

The first wave of high demand and adoption is over. I can´t see they rising production when the first months of this year will be very slow.


well, there is wishful thinking and then there is reality



Torillian on 02 January 2014
Nem said:
How about telling us how much its gonna outsell the X1 aswell?

Oh.. ofc... cause the shock value is in running their mouth about Nintendo.

It tells me everything about how partial he is.


PS4 has already outsold the X1.  You can't pick a date by which time the PS4 is going to pass the X1 sales like you can for WiiU.  Seems like a silly thing to get hung up about.  



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Dark_Feanor on 02 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
Dark_Feanor said


Well, "Needs to do" and  "Is doing" are very different thing. 

The first is a opinion based on VGChartz numbers, and the second is a thing that only Sony insider or the suply chain would know.

Any way, I don´t think the damand for the PS4 is that high, it´s out-sold every where but the prices at grey market and auction houses aren´t rising. 

The first wave of high demand and adoption is over. I can´t see they rising production when the first months of this year will be very slow.


well, there is wishful thinking and then there is reality


As I understand, reality is based on facts, that you can prove or disprove. For now VGChartz numbers can´t be proven or disproved, they are just guestimatives.

So, going back to the OP, how do you or our friend know that Sony "is producing more PS4 than before"?



eyeofcore on 02 January 2014

Pachter... Please patch yourself, your firmware is outdated. Drone...

Anyway...

It won't happen, there is no chance of PlayStation 4 outselling Wii U in Spring and I can only see Wii U being outsold by PlayStation 4 is Q4 2014 when it gets its pace back up after this sharp fall/crash of Xbox One and PlayStation 4 have right now as holidays ended while they are now feeling game drought that will start in Q1 and ends when Q2 starts...



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DerNebel on 02 January 2014
kitler53 said:


i think you overestimate.   ps3 launched with a paltry 86k.   i would expect a better launch than ps3 but a 5.8:1 ratio is too big to me.   i'd guess more like 200k.

Well the ratio in the US was 6.9:1, so you never know. I agree though, I feel that it's very difficult to judge japanese demand since all I've heard are how the preorders are all being sold out very fast, which doesn't necessarily tell us much if we don't know how big the allocated numbers are.



NintendoSupporter<3 on 02 January 2014

WiiU will stay ahead of XB1 for awhile. PS4 WILL pass WiiU in March after its debut in Japan and after the one exclusive I only know coming to PS4, Infamous: Second Son.



kitler53 on 02 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
kitler53 said:


i think you overestimate.   ps3 launched with a paltry 86k.   i would expect a better launch than ps3 but a 5.8:1 ratio is too big to me.   i'd guess more like 200k.


No way on 200k. It will at least match Wii Us launch at around 300-350k and im thinking pezus is banking on it beating it. Hence the 500k figure. 


hrmm,. didn't think to check the wiiU launch.   i guess you have a point here.  500k still feels too big to me but i guess at least 350k then as sony will at least ship that many to have the PR victory.



POE on 02 January 2014



Max King of the Wild on 02 January 2014
Dark_Feanor said:


As I understand, reality is based on facts, that you can prove or disprove. For now VGChartz numbers can´t be proven or disproved, they are just guestimatives.

So, going back to the OP, how do you or our friend know that Sony "is producing more PS4 than before"?


yes, vgc is just estimates. But for HW its a pretty reasonable estimate considering all the data we recieved from outside resources. As for how we know Sony is producing morethan 5mil is because thats what companies do when they underestimate demand. Nintendo did it for the Wii. Considering they are sold out everywhere at the end of the quarter then they have to produce another 1.5m to supply retail again if a total of 0 units sell this upcoming quarter. If they sell 500k this quarter than they have to produce 2m. units. Im goimg to estimate 1.5m sold this quarter so Sony would need to produce 3mil to fully supply retail. Cam they fully supply retial? who knows but im pretty sure Sony doesnt want their system supply constrained till next year so they have to increase production