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Forums - Sales - Global Hardware Numbers Are Up!!! 14 December 2013

pezus said:
Calling it now: NPD will show yet again that WiiU+3DS are being overtracked in the US.
Everything else is still a mystery


NPD never showed that Wii U and 3DS were overtracked, you are probably thinking that NPD covers entire North America... NPD does not cover entire USA and they cover 60 to 65% of US retailers so they show 60-65% of US market and not 100% as you probably think.

NPD does not track Toy R Us nor Sam's Club which are one of major retailers so it does not show the complete picture for every console or hardware... So NPD showing Wii U and 3DS being overtracked is impossible and is impossible to overtrack the hardware, you can only undertrack it :P



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eyeofcore said:
pezus said:
Calling it now: NPD will show yet again that WiiU+3DS are being overtracked in the US.
Everything else is still a mystery


NPD never showed that Wii U and 3DS were overtracked, you are probably thinking that NPD covers entire North America... NPD does not cover entire USA and they cover 60 to 65% of US retailers so they show 60-65% of US market and not 100% as you probably think.

NPD does not track Toy R Us nor Sam's Club which are one of major retailers so it does not show the complete picture for every console or hardware... So NPD showing Wii U and 3DS being overtracked is impossible and is impossible to overtrack the hardware, you can only undertrack it :P


Is this really true? I have NEVER heard ANYONE on this site EVER say that! I am not the best when it comes to sales and tracking but this is a first for me! Wow...you learn something new everyday!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto said:
eyeofcore said:
pezus said:
Calling it now: NPD will show yet again that WiiU+3DS are being overtracked in the US.
Everything else is still a mystery


NPD never showed that Wii U and 3DS were overtracked, you are probably thinking that NPD covers entire North America... NPD does not cover entire USA and they cover 60 to 65% of US retailers so they show 60-65% of US market and not 100% as you probably think.

NPD does not track Toy R Us nor Sam's Club which are one of major retailers so it does not show the complete picture for every console or hardware... So NPD showing Wii U and 3DS being overtracked is impossible and is impossible to overtrack the hardware, you can only undertrack it :P


Is this really true? I have NEVER heard ANYONE on this site EVER say that! I am not the best when it comes to sales and tracking but this is a first for me! Wow...you learn something new everyday!


Yes, it is...  You are kinda overreacting with your response... NPD covers only 60-65% of US market.



eyeofcore said:

Yes, it is...  You are kinda overreacting with your response... NPD covers only 60-65% of US market.

NPD doesn't have data from 100% of the market, but the numbers they publish are extrapolated out to 100% of the market.  It is very possible for VGC to overtrack hardware.



Viktor said:

PS4s hardware numbers looks like a joke compared to 3DSs far bigger ones.

 

Platform N. America Europe Japan Global
337,683 319,950 182,193 899,915
154,421 139,410 N/A 312,917

Uhhhh, no. Most of these sales are for the $129 2DS. This is a toy and it is no surprise that it is selling well at Xmas. This is a dumb comparison to a $399 piece if hardware.



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Yakuzaice said:
eyeofcore said:

Yes, it is...  You are kinda overreacting with your response... NPD covers only 60-65% of US market.

NPD doesn't have data from 100% of the market, but the numbers they publish are extrapolated out to 100% of the market.  It is very possible for VGC to overtrack hardware.


Can you give me proof of NPD doing that which is unlikely since it would/could damage their credibility. Just because 60-65% market is that way does not mean rest of the market which is not tracked which is 35-40% will have same/similar results as that 60-65% of the market... VGC is making rough estimates that are likely incorrect and I don't cite them as credible source, they have a hit and miss. We will see if they were correct.

Lets wait for official numbers from companies themself...

pezus said:
eyeofcore said:
pezus said:
Calling it now: NPD will show yet again that WiiU+3DS are being overtracked in the US.
Everything else is still a mystery


NPD never showed that Wii U and 3DS were overtracked, you are probably thinking that NPD covers entire North America... NPD does not cover entire USA and they cover 60 to 65% of US retailers so they show 60-65% of US market and not 100% as you probably think.

NPD does not track Toy R Us nor Sam's Club which are one of major retailers so it does not show the complete picture for every console or hardware... So NPD showing Wii U and 3DS being overtracked is impossible and is impossible to overtrack the hardware, you can only undertrack it :P

Huh. You find out something new every day.

NPD estimate sales for the entire US.

What you're saying is that NPD always undertracks hardware and basically that their numbers are meaningless.

We always find out something new every single day, we learn every second of our lives...

NPD covers 60-65% of US retailers and their estimation of entire US is likely in correct since those 35-40% of the market that they don't cover probably does not act the same way and I need a proof that NPD estimates sales for entire USA by looking at their 60-65% of the market that they cover in US only... We are talking about North America and not USA only so you are leaving out Canada and I think Mexico if I stand correct... So NPD is not definitive source of entire NA market, they only look at US.

I don't say that they numbers are meaningless, those 60-65% have a meaning, but what they estimate for rest 35-40% of the market is meaningless as a definitive result of 60-65% of US market. We need to take a look at other companies that track US market, they might have some part or entire part of 35-40% of US market that NPD does not cover.



pezus said:

My question is this: Why was PS4 adjusted up slightly in Europe and "others" shortly after you had posted the numbers?


http://www.vgchartz.com/article/82746/editorial-why-it-is-so-easy-to-blame-vgchartz/

What VGChartz offers is timely data that isn't meant to be 100% accurate but be in the right range. We don't compete with the likes of NPD, GFK or ChartTrack; we offer a service that is totally different. One that is not based on comprehensive and direct retail tracking, but rather uses modern and alternative methods to quickly arrive at estimates, combined with a database of historical sales - constantly adjusted and tweaked to be as accurate as possible.



                            

eyeofcore said:

Can you give me proof of NPD doing that which is unlikely since it would/could damage their credibility. Just because 60-65% market is that way does not mean rest of the market which is not tracked which is 35-40% will have same/similar results as that 60-65% of the market... VGC is making rough estimates that are likely incorrect and I don't cite them as credible source, they have a hit and miss. We will see if they were correct.

Lets wait for official numbers from companies themself...

As an example, NPD recorded 2.110m sales for the Wii through March 2007 in the United States.  Nintendo shipped 2.37m to all of the Americas in the same time period.  If what you are saying is true, then somehow US sales would be 3.25-3.52m.  Even more really, because I believe NPD wasn't getting Walmart data back then.  How could NPD numbers only represent 60-65% of US sales with numbers like these?

I don't know why you think it would damage their credibility.  They don't claim to record every single transaction that occurs in the US.  Their customers know their methodology.  Those customers include the video game companies.  Why would they use NPD numbers in PR if the real numbers were ~50% higher?



eyeofcore said:

I don't say that they numbers are meaningless, those 60-65% have a meaning, but what they estimate for rest 35-40% of the market is meaningless as a definitive result of 60-65% of US market.

What complete nonsense. NPD does not track console sales, they track CONSUMER GOODS. Consoles just happen to be some consumer good. NPD has a huge database of consumer behaviour for all shops they have been tracking over decades. They also have a pretty good idea of consumer behaviour in those shops they don't track and qhat those non-tracked shops actually sell. Having around 65% of the market tracked does NOT mean you multiply your numbers by 1.5 to get to 100% tracking. This includes sophisticated statistical evaluations using all the available consumer behaviour, including shop profiles to estimate 100% tracking. That does not eliminate the occasional out-of-bounds number, but NPD numbers should generally be within 5-10% of "real numbers".



ioi said:
drkohler said:

What complete nonsense. NPD does not track console sales, they track CONSUMER GOODS. Consoles just happen to be some consumer good. NPD has a huge database of consumer behaviour for all shops they have been tracking over decades. They also have a pretty good idea of consumer behaviour in those shops they don't track and qhat those non-tracked shops actually sell. Having around 65% of the market tracked does NOT mean you multiply your numbers by 1.5 to get to 100% tracking. This includes sophisticated statistical evaluations using all the available consumer behaviour, including shop profiles to estimate 100% tracking. That does not eliminate the occasional out-of-bounds number, but NPD numbers should generally be within 5-10% of "real numbers".


Actually, having spoken to a lot of ex NPD guys we actually do a lot more consumer modelling than NPD does to account for different groups of retailers, monitor specific promotions, footfall shifts, seasonal trends and so on.

Their data scaling is nowhere near as sophisticated as you seem to think - they pretty much take the 60% of data they they get directly from the retail partners and multiply it by 1.66 to estimate for the whole market. There may be slight adjustments per platform (based on historical trends) and seasonality but these will be sweeping adjustments across the board not to specific titles, genres etc - that is about as sophisticated as NPD gets.

Finally, they may adjust for errors either by going back and adjusting old data (which the public will never see) or by making adjustments in future months to lose the error which obviously makes those data points inaccurate going forward - either way it raises futher questions about the accuracy of the data that the public gets to see.


Interesting... Thanks for indirectly partially backing me up... :D Can you share with us how much is your accuracy? Is it 75%((more or less)?