ioi said:
drkohler said:
What complete nonsense. NPD does not track console sales, they track CONSUMER GOODS. Consoles just happen to be some consumer good. NPD has a huge database of consumer behaviour for all shops they have been tracking over decades. They also have a pretty good idea of consumer behaviour in those shops they don't track and qhat those non-tracked shops actually sell. Having around 65% of the market tracked does NOT mean you multiply your numbers by 1.5 to get to 100% tracking. This includes sophisticated statistical evaluations using all the available consumer behaviour, including shop profiles to estimate 100% tracking. That does not eliminate the occasional out-of-bounds number, but NPD numbers should generally be within 5-10% of "real numbers".
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Actually, having spoken to a lot of ex NPD guys we actually do a lot more consumer modelling than NPD does to account for different groups of retailers, monitor specific promotions, footfall shifts, seasonal trends and so on.
Their data scaling is nowhere near as sophisticated as you seem to think - they pretty much take the 60% of data they they get directly from the retail partners and multiply it by 1.66 to estimate for the whole market. There may be slight adjustments per platform (based on historical trends) and seasonality but these will be sweeping adjustments across the board not to specific titles, genres etc - that is about as sophisticated as NPD gets.
Finally, they may adjust for errors either by going back and adjusting old data (which the public will never see) or by making adjustments in future months to lose the error which obviously makes those data points inaccurate going forward - either way it raises futher questions about the accuracy of the data that the public gets to see.
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Interesting... Thanks for indirectly partially backing me up... :D Can you share with us how much is your accuracy? Is it 75%((more or less)?
