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Forums - Sales Discussion - Vita to be the best-selling handheld in Japan in 2014 ?

 

What do you think ?

I couldn't agree more 54 7.75%
 
It'll do good but won't be best-selling 151 21.66%
 
no just no. 262 37.59%
 
Trololol, Nintendomination !! 230 33.00%
 
Total:697
POE on 28 December 2013

Not a chance



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tbone51 on 28 December 2013
SnowPrince said:
Aielyn said:
Conina said:
Aielyn said:

It has been able to sell nearly 20 million because it's been out for 10 years - It's easy to see that the average is less than 2 million a year.

It's out for 9 years, not 10. It's easy to see that the average is more than 2 million a year. ;)

Calendar years. Since the topic of discussion is 2014, and not "FY2014" or some variant thereof, we care about the calendar year.

But this year it couldn't manage to do 500k and only 800k in 2012... so it did 18.7M in late 2004-2011 wich is 2.7M per year, it could've easily done 4M in some year probably 2008-9 (too lazy to check).

I just thought that maybe that now, Vita is on the same price as a 3DS XL, New Model, better performance, and strong titles ahead. It could just maybe do 3.5M and be closely above 3DS, (I know 4M is a bit higher at this stage).


Do you really expect 3DS to drop much lower year to year? You want 2 miracles to happen. 3DS down by over 35% (Year to Year) as well as vita 2014 to increase by 75% O.o

Vita 2013 already had a major price cut with top ips with them and released a new model + a Home Console model (with GE2) and it still wont pass 1.5mil this year!

3DS has games much bigger already than Vita in 204 as well as the 2DS which hasn't release there. Keep in mind there hasn't been a price cut on 3DS in over 2.5 years as well. They can cut it anytime they want!

Also there is one game if it is coming that will be just as big as Pokemon/MH is... DQXI! If thats coming 2014 its a wrap



Aielyn on 28 December 2013
Conina said:
Aielyn said:
Calendar years. Since the topic of discussion is 2014, and not "FY2014" or some variant thereof, we care about the calendar year.

9 years + 16 days in japan... you round that up to 10 years?

You do understand the phrase "calendar year", right?



xytherion on 28 December 2013

Search for "ffx lang:ja" on twitter! Vitabros wil really like what they will see and read!

Stocks of FFX/X2 bundle is out of stock in some stores. hope square will restock fast



Conina on 28 December 2013
Aielyn said:
Conina said:
Aielyn said:
Calendar years. Since the topic of discussion is 2014, and not "FY2014" or some variant thereof, we care about the calendar year.

9 years + 16 days in japan... you round that up to 10 years?

You do understand the phrase "calendar year", right?

You do understand, that your average of "less than 2 million a year" is off, when you use correct time frames, right?



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JohnMeyers on 28 December 2013
Viktor said:
JohnMeyers said:

http://www.itproportal.com/2011/03/29/nintendo-3ds-manufacturing-cost-over-100-per-unit/

 

Actually it's likely much lower now. 100 dollars back in 2009. The parts are cheaper now, so it's probably less than 90. The 2DS probably costs 50 dollars to make. (guess)

Meanwhile:

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/playstation-vita-cost-estimated-at-160-in-report/


To be correct it says over 100$. Also you seem to ignore that the PSV estimate is really old as well, dating back to early 2012. We know that Sony used mass produced cellphone parts which are also known to fall in price really quickly. In Japan we have also to consider that they reduced the costs even further with the release of PSV-2000 that replaces the OLED screen with a cheaper LCD screen.

It was 101.3 bucks, according to another site. And while Vita's costs have probably also went down, the difference would still be ~50-60 dollars. Nintendo can price the 3DS at 130$, or the 2DS at less than 100$ and still make a profit. They haven't done so yet because they don't have to.

Your last point is true. A PSV price cut would help it quite a lot. 



SnowPrince on 28 December 2013
JohnMeyers said:

It was 101.3 bucks, according to another site. And while Vita's costs have probably also went down, the difference would still be ~50-60 dollars. Nintendo can price the 3DS at 130$, or the 2DS at less than 100$ and still make a profit. They haven't done so yet because they don't have to.

Your last point is true. A PSV price cut would help it quite a lot. 

The cost of the 3DS is for the first model right ? No words about the XL model ? I guess it is even with vita, if not a little lower since they're sold at the same price.



Alby_da_Wolf on 28 December 2013
SnowPrince said:
I'm pretty much convinced with all your replies guys thank you, but still, no one ever mentioned PS4 boost it could have in Japan ? I know things did not go as expected here, we thought Vita would sell millions once PS4 will be out, but what about Handheld country ? Won't Remote play give any additional boost ?

Surely it will make sell more PSV, but the boost will be big only at launch and it will take a far lower total price of PS4 + PSV to generate a significant boost after the richest early adopters run out. Also, 3DS still has quite a large potential user base to sell to, it won't slow down so much to be outsold so early, maybe later, if Sony and 3rd parties support PSV enough. Another possible chance for PSV could come if Ninty will take away too many resources from 3DS to support Wii U, but, as the games to be released in 2014 are almost complete by now, it would totally make sense to complete them, and such effect would happen later, unless Ninty want to throw in the loo a lot of work already done for 3DS, definitely not happening even with the worst possible management.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
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Aielyn on 28 December 2013
Conina said:
Aielyn said:
You do understand the phrase "calendar year", right?

You do understand, that your average of "less than 2 million a year" is off, when you use correct time frames, right?

Would it help you comprehend if I wrote it as "less than 2 million a calendar year"?



SnowPrince on 28 December 2013
Alby_da_Wolf said:

Surely it will make sell more PSV, but the boost will be big only at launch and it will take a far lower total price of PS4 + PSV to generate a significant boost after the richest early adopters run out. Also, 3DS still has quite a large potential user base to sell to, it won't slow down so much to be outsold so early, maybe later, if Sony and 3rd parties support PSV enough. Another possible chance for PSV could come if Ninty will take away too many resources from 3DS to support Wii U, but, as the games to be released in 2014 are almost complete by now, it would totally make sense to complete them, and such effect would happen later, unless Ninty want to throw in the loo a lot of work already done for 3DS, definitely not happening even with the worst possible management.

You're absolutely right in every point you raised, but i'm partially sure, that if PS4 succeded to seduce Japanese gamers, and once it'll get some of the major titles as KH III or FF, Hardcore gamers would like to get a vita even if as an expensive accessory, in order to get to play anywhere. It is an awesome feature and may turn into a strong selling one.
About the 3DS nothing can be said, 3DS with or without Software would still sell, but it just seems odd how it is down YoY though it got plenty of biggest sellers this year, Pokemon, Luigi's Mansion, Tomodachi and MH4. And if it sells same as last two years, it would top the DS. That's why it is slowing down.

But at the end, i might be totally wrong, but I'd still say that Vita will be up next year, and 3DS down, will they meet halfway ? Possible ?